Diamondbacks vs. Tigers MLB Pick – June 13th

We came up short yesterday with the Rockies failing to touch Jameson Taillon and unable to do enough damage against the bullpen to make up for a rough pitching night from Chatwood. It sends us into tonight on a mini-slide we need to stop tonight.

There were only four games in the National League last night and three of them featured piles of runs, easily eclipsing double digits. The only under last night was the Cubs, whose misery continued with a 6-1 loss to the Mets for their sixth loss in seven games. Fortunately for the Cubs, the NL Central continues to be the most mediocre division in baseball, and they are still only 1 ½ games out of first place despite sitting at a disappointing 31-32 on the season.

It’s a much larger slate of action tonight with the entire NL on the diamond. The highlights on the night include Clayton Kershaw pitching in Boston and Jon Lester dueling with Zach Wheeler in the Big Apple. However, our pick today focuses on a less glamorous matchup with a more generous line.

Today’s MLB Pick:

Arizona Diamondbacks -119 at Detroit Tigers +109
Zack Greinke (8-3, 3.20 ERA) vs. Buck Farmer (2-0, 0.00 ERA)

It isn’t every day you see a guy with a 0.00 ERA getting a start in June, but before you get too excited, keep in mind he has pitched 13 innings in two starts since being called up. Prior to this season, he had a career mark of 0-6 with a 6.84 ERA in sporadic appearances, predominantly as a reliever, dating back to 2014. This isn’t the second coming of Clayton Kershaw… or even Zack Greinke.

Greinke has been back on his former Cy Young form after a rough injury-riddled 2016 campaign. He should also be fresh after being skipped in the rotation for the birth of his second child and paternity leave.  Three of his last five starts were not quality starts. Prior to that, seven of eight had been, including a few dominant efforts. He enters tonight with a WHIP of 1.02 and 100 strikeouts. He has been dominant for long stretches, and I expect a good effort tonight.

I also expect a regression to the mean for Farmer, who has pitched well beyond anyone’s wildest expectations. Is tonight the night he crashes back to reality against a potent Diamondback lineup?

Quite likely, which makes a -119 line feel awfully generous.


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