Los Angeles Dodgers +115 at Arizona Diamondbacks -125 (Total: 8.5)
Ted Lilly vs. Joe Saunders
Every once in a while a line comes along and screams at me “take this wager and run!” It happened yesterday getting even money odds for a game pitched by Matt Cain (yes, we won that one). And it looks very possible to me again today. Let’s dig into the numbers briefly and get an edge on tonight’s Dodgers v. D’Backs matchup.
The Dodgers, even despite the absence of MVP front-runner Matt Kemp, are still plugging along and getting the job done. They have won six games in a row and eight of ten overall, and have done it both with offense and on days when the bats went quiet, great pitching. Including Clayton Kershaw, no one on the staff has been better this season than veteran lefty Ted Lilly. The longtime Cub turned Dodger has been baffling hitters in his last three starts, posting a 2-0 record (and his team is 3-0 overall), and his ERA is a neat tidy 2.23. And those numbers PALE in comparison to his total season numbers. Lilly is a perfect 5-0 with a 1.77 ERA and a dazzling 0.90 WHIP. I’m not saying he can do this for a whole season, but if you just look at numbers and ignore the name on the back of the jersey, this guy is a Cy Young contender…
Meanwhile, the early season success seems to have evaporated rapidly for Arizona veteran Joe Saunders. He is 0-2 in his last three starts with a ridiculous 9.42 ERA. His WHIP is over TWO, which is nearly unheard of. Yet, for some reason, hosting the hottest team in all of major league baseball with one of the best pitchers in the Big Leagues in 2012, they are -125??
I don’t get it either. I love the Dodgers tonight at +115, and I wish they were favored so I could snap up a nice fat +160 – +170 runline. Some books will still offer the -1.5 runline on the underdog, but you might need to look around a bit. Either way, the Dodgers to win is my pick tonight. I like Ted Lilly to close the door while Joe Saunders swings it wide open. This looks like a mismatch to me. And you get the privilege of a +115 line to exploit it. Enjoy!
Free Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers +115