Los Angeles Dodgers -126 at Seattle Mariners +116 (Total: 6.5)
Clayton Kershaw vs. Justin Vargas
Last night, in one of the more bizarre accomplishments we are likely to see all season, the Seattle Mariners and six pitchers combined to no-hit the Los Angeles Dodgers. The unlikely feat set a mark for the team with the highest winning percentage to EVER be no-hit, and I guess all six Seattle hurlers will divvy up their share of the “record.”
I am always hesitant to put a word like “record” on something that should more aptly be called a “feat” or even “freak occurrence” but it was fun at the very least. One thing I am NOT hesitant about is my eyes popping out whenever I see Clayton Kershaw at a line pretty close to flat. It immediately screams “good value pick.” So let’s dig inside the numbers a bit and make sure it is as good of a value as it appears on the surface.
Kershaw has been great this season, but has had his share of struggles over the last two weeks. He is 0-2 with a 4.55 ERA in his last three starts and his WHIP has crept up near the 1.50 mark, which is a little troubling. However, the lefty still has as good of stuff as any southpaw hurler alive NOT named Aroldis Chapman, and Seattle’s lineup ain’t exactly the ’27 Yankees. Somewhat lost in the ho-hitter exuberance was the fact that Seattle was pretty fortunate to win, having scratched out only one run themselves.
Even with Kershaw’s recent bout with appearing, gasp, HUMAN, his WHIP on the year is still a tiny 1.02. The Dodgers are 10-1 this season in games started by pitchers with a WHIP under 1.10. They have also fared well in pitchers’ duels, or at least in games when the offensive productivity is expected to be very low. They are 6-1 this season in games with the TOTAL set at 6.5 or lower. Tonight’s 6.5 fits the bill.
The Dodgers have also handled their business in games in which they were the favorite, but no the overwhelming favorite. They are 25-7 in their last 32 games as a favorite between -110 and -150. Seattle meanwhile is just 1-4 in their last 5 games with the total set at 6.5 or less and has lost seven of their last eight games as a home underdog.
All the stats point towards the Dodgers rebounding nicely tonight, and you have to love your chances with Kershaw pitching against a very weak lineup. I like the Dodgers to WIN (that’s my official pick) but will also be doubling-up tonight with LA on the -1.5 runline at +140.
Free Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers to WIN -126 <– Click for $100 FREE Bet