I am making my return to the MLB picks scene tonight. Last year I didn’t deliver amazing results (20-27-1), but for a while I was handing out some solid picks. On bigger slates where bettors are looking for a few more games than TSG tends to dish out, I’ll hope to chime in with an extra winner that can help you out.
I think I have one tonight in Arizona, as the Los Angeles Dodgers take on the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field.
There is actually pretty interesting value across the board here. Clayton Kershaw has not been his elite self, yet he could snap out of his funk at any time and you’re getting the Dodgers at -173 and lower at most MLB betting sites.
On the other side, Arizona has looked like one of the best teams in baseball and currently lead the way in the competitive NL West. It’s anyone’s guess if they’ll stay there for good, but they come in hot and are at home, yet they could supply stellar value tonight.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5, -110) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+1.5, -110) Total: 7.5 (-105/-115)
Los Angeles is favored to win with Kershaw on the mound, so if they can cover by two runs they’re an even better value at -120.
Of course, the Dodgers have been a pretty tough team to back this year. Kershaw’s struggles have been a pretty big reason why. He’s fine when compared to the rest of the majors (2.84 ERA), but that’s his highest ERA since 2010.
The sample size is small and he could figure things out, but in his last trip to the mound he got abused by the Miami Marlins at home. He got worked by the Washington Nationals in his previous start as well, while Kershaw’s K rate (more than 7 strikeouts just once all year) has been well below what you’re accustomed to seeing from him.
Los Angeles hasn’t been getting it done beyond Kershaw, either. The Dodgers come in with a paltry 12-16 overall record and are just 5-8 on the road. They’re coming in with a three-game losing streak, too, while they’re just 4-6 over their last 10 games.
Kershaw was not great the last time he hit up Chase Field. He only struck out six batters and gave up two home runs in a 6-2 loss. In the past he’s destroyed Arizona and been good on the road, but you can’t take anything for granted with him right now.
That, and the Dodgers haven’t really bailed him out offensively. Even with a good ERA intact, Kershaw is just 1-4 on the year due to his offense not showing up during his starts. L.A. has yet to top four runs in a game he’s hit the mound in, while they’ve produced two or fewer runs in four of his six starts so far in 2018.
Arizona feels like an elite straight up value tonight. They come at a nice +163 price at BetOnline tonight and they’re at home, where they’ve gone a blistering 10-3 so far in 2018. They’ve also handled the Dodgers well so far this year, going 4-0 against them so far through four contests.
The bad news with the D’Backs is they don’t have an elite arm facing Kershaw and they’re still facing Kershaw.
Matt Koch is not an elite talent, but he’s looked solid through two appearances this year. The Dodgers have the talent to blow him up in this park, but he has solid control and L.A. is down a key bat now that Corey Seager (elbow) has been ruled out for the rest of the season. Justin Turner is already on the shelf, so that hurts this offense quite a bit.
I don’t think Koch will dominate them and Kershaw is never an easy guy to bet against, but I like the value here with the D’Backs. They’ve been an extremely tough out at home, the Dodgers lost yet another asset on offense and Kershaw hasn’t been getting it done.
Even if Kershaw dishes out a gem, his offense still might not come to the rescue in a tight game. The Under is in play here and the D’Backs with the reverse run line +1.5 (-110) is also an option. I’m just kicking the giant while he’s down, though. Ride Arizona’s elite value to some winnings tonight.