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Dodgers vs. Giants MLB Pick – May 15th

I know I am not on the American League beat, but there is something both humorous and disappointingly anti-climactic about the Yankees giving up nine runs in the first three innings on Derek Jeter Night…

Alas, it was a great weekend of baseball and some really interesting series in the National League. The Cardinals took two of three over the Cubs to widen their lead in the NL Central to 3.5 games over the fourth-place Cubbies. Yes, it is early, but it appears there might be a race this season in the Central after last year’s romp. And the West seems ready to rumble as well, as the Rockies won yesterday against the Dodgers to stem some of L.A’s momentum and remain 1.5 up in the NL West.

There are a lot of NL teams with the day off today, but still some good action with the Mets trying to get back on track in Arizona against the Diamondbacks who are looking to remain in the race after a tough week quelled some April excitement, and the Dodgers and Giants renew one of baseball’s best rivalries fresh off the Giants nice weekend where they took three of four from the Reds.

We had a rough baseball weekend, going 0-2-1 ATS, but hopefully a new week can bring some new results.

Today’s MLB Pick:

Los Angeles Dodgers -140 at San Francisco Giants +130 (Total: 7.5)
Brandon McCarthy (3-0, 3.10 ERA) vs. Matt Cain (2-1, 4.54 ERA)

On paper, it looks like Matt Cain is having another tough season, but in truth, if you eliminate the disastrous outing in Cincinnati last week, he has been the best Giants pitcher this season. In the Reds debacle, he was sent to the showers in the fourth inning after allowing nine earned runs. If you remove that blip, his ERA is under two and a half.

Meanwhile, Brandon McCarty has a similar success story. McCarthy was famously hospitalized four years ago after taking the line drive in the face and facing life-threatening surgery. He is an easy guy to root for, and his hot start to the season is great to see. He hasn’t pitched since April 29th after being sidelined for precautions on an injury to his non-throwing shoulder. He should be fresh and energized to return tonight in pitcher-friendly AT&T Park.

Both pitchers have a serious “regression to the expected mean” risk, but both have been pitching really well in 2017. The Giants lineup is pretty pedestrian and the ballpark favors the hurlers. I’ll bank on both pitchers doing a good enough job tonight to keep this total under the seven and a half run threshold.

Today’s MLB PICK: RUN TOTAL UNDER 7.5

 

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