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Dodgers vs. Reds MLB Pick – June 16th

When you have a 9-1 lead heading into the seventh inning, you have to feel pretty good. When you have a 9-3 lead, at home, heading into the eighth hosting one of the worst offensive teams in all of baseball, you have to feel downright comfortable.

Perhaps the Rockies felt a little TOO comfortable last night. Our easy plus-money runline winner magically evaporated in one of my worst beats of the season as the Giants tallied eight runs in the final three innings to tie the game before the Rockies scored a walk off winner in the bottom of the ninth for a 10-9 win. If you had the Rox straight up, you won. I muscled up on the runline and took a brutal beat. In fact, I am REALLY glad I checked in for the final inning last night, as I was PRETTY sure I was going to sleep with a winner in my pocket…

Alas, we are getting back on our grind today with a full slate of MLB action to choose from. There are some great series this weekend and some interesting pitching matchups to select from. The Mets and Nats play game two as the Nats attempt to further bury their most legitimate rival, the Cubs and Pirates meet in a surprising battle between sub-.500 teams, and it isn’t my beat, but it’s hard not to jump over to the American League for the Astros and Red Sox in Fenway…

Today’s MLB Pick:

Los Angeles Dodgers -164 at Cincinnati Reds +154 (Total: 9)
Alex Wood (6-0, 2.01 ERA) vs. Tim Adelman (4-2, 4.34 ERA)

On the surface, this is quite a mismatch. The Dodgers have the best record in the National League and the Reds have fallen back into last place after dropping six straight out West, three of them to the Dodgers in Chavez Ravine.

They also are throwing a guy who leads the NL in ERA and has yet to take a loss THIS SEASON. The Reds are throwing a journeyman who has had a few great outings and a bunch of mediocre ones. Bet the house on the Dodger Blue, right??

Well… not so fast.

The Reds, as BAD as they looked this week, are actually a really GOOD team at home. They are 19-15 at home, while the Dodgers are just 16-16 on the road. And while Wood went four straight starts without allowing a SINGLE RUN, he was touched up for three in just five innings less than a week ago at home against the same Reds. Now they get a second look at him, but this time at home in homer-happy Great American Ballpark. The Reds, despite being seven games under .500 have three of the top ten WAR leaders in the National League in Votto, Cozart and Suarez, so don’t be surprised if they put up a few runs tonight and give Adelman a chance to win.

The Dodgers have a lot of obvious advantages – which inflates the line and has my hunting some value tonight. It is a bit of a longshot, but I’ll take my second big money flyer of the week and bet that the change in scenery helps the Reds snap a six-game slide and touch up the untouchable Alex Wood.

Today’s MLB Pick: CINCINNATI REDS TO WIN +154

 

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