We came up a few runs short on the OVER play last night, but the Reds stayed red-hot and continued their dominance over the Giants by beating them for a fourth straight time. This one was a competitive 3-2 win, but it was a win for the Reds and a loss for the Giants nonetheless as the San Francisco spiral continues. The Giants own the worst record in the National League (worst record in all of baseball actually) at 12-24 and possess a miserable -69 run differential. They will send their de facto ace to the mound tonight, Johnny Cueto, to see if he can fare better against his ex-mates this evening.
Elsewhere, Zack Greinke was awesome again last night in the D’Backs 2-1 win over Pittsburgh to push his record to 5-2 with an ERA of just 2.79. If Greinke can be 2015 Greinke as opposed to last year’s miserable debut in Phoenix, the ‘Backs can stay in this NL West race well into Fall.
Staying in the NL West, the Rockies got a nice series-opening win over the Dodgers, 10-7, but will have their work cut out for them tonight against Clayton Kershaw. Can the similarly rough up the Dodgers, and MLB’s, ace??
Today’s MLB Pick:
Los Angeles Dodgers -190 at Colorado Rockies +180 (Total: 9)
Clayton Kershaw (5-2, 2.40 ERA) vs. Tyler Chatwood (3-4, 4.74 ERA)
This one is really interesting. These teams combined for 17 runs last night and the total tonight is nearly double-digits. But Clayton Kershaw is on the mound. CLAYTON KERSHAW and a double-digit run total? Those are pretty incongruous statements.
So is the line valid? It isn’t like Kershaw hasn’t pitched in the thin air before. He is attempting to be the first pitcher in MLB to win twenty games against the Colorado Rockies. Considering they have been around for nearly thirty seasons, that’s a pretty impressive feat.
But the wins aren’t a function of some Koufax-like dominance. It has been all about run support. He has a lifetime 4.74 ERA at Coors Field and has been touched up by the Rox twice this season already. I think the Colorado Rockies are going to get some runs tonight and, as wild as it seems, that 9 number is vulnerable.
A big reason for that vulnerability is the opposing pitcher, Tyler Chatwood. His ERA is close to five and he is facing a hot Dodgers lineup. They struggled mightily in the beginning of the season, but have finally gotten the hitting to match their stellar pitching and have surged back to 20-15, winning seven of their last ten games. They have the second-best run differential in the league at +50 (Washington is +51) and are only one run behind the Rockies for the second-most runs scored in the National League.
This is a talented team playing good baseball. I don’t think they miss an opportunity to tally some runs tonight. The line on LA is a little steep for me at -190, but I do think the OVER is a nice play, especially if you get the line at 9 rather than 9.5.
Today’s MLB Pick: RUN TOTAL OVER 9