Dodgers vs. Rockies Pick MLB – Aug 31st

We escaped with a narrow winner last night thanks to the Giants tallying a run in the bottom of the ninth to narrow their 4-3 defeat.  The runline – which I jumped on solely because it felt about a half-run too low turned out to be exactly such and we were able to nab our third winner in four plays.

It’s a lighter getaway day schedule today, but we will try to keep it up with a little easier winner today – it’s fun sometimes to sweat one out and feel the excitement, but overall, I prefer my winners with a little more breathing room to spare!

Meanwhile, the Cubs Kyle Hendricks continued his surprising Cy Young bid last night, throwing seven shutout, three-hit innings against the Pirates.  The Cubs are still thundering towards well over 100 wins, but the second straight win over the Pirates does some damage to the Buccos chances of a repeat October engagement.  Their losses coupled with the Mets hot play has both tied for third in the wildcard standings at 2.5 games back.

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Today’s Free Pick:

Los Angeles Dodgers -170 at Colorado Rockies +160 (Total: 11.5)

Rich Hill (10-3, 2.09 ERA) vs. Jeff Hoffman (0-2, 8.10 ERA)

Coors Field is a launching pad and both these offenses have had some fun in this ballpark.  But Eleven and a half runs for the total??  That feels a little ambitious to bank on with a wager.  The first game of the series finished in an 8-1 Dodger victory.  In fact, three of the last four games between these two played in Coors Field finished in single digit run totals.

Rich Hill joined the Dodgers with a pretty impressive season statline in tow.  His first start as a Dodger did little to dissuade the enthusiasm, pitching six shutout innings against the Giants allowing only five hits and no walks.  He enters tonight with a 2.09 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and a tidy .202 average against.  Not bad for a 36 year old veteran pitcher.  The point?  Yes, Coors is a tough venue and yes, the Rockies have a lineup with some punch, even without Trevor Story.  But Rich Hill has been pretty awesome all season long, so I’ll bank on him to get by with no worse than a decent outing.

Jeff Hoffman could be another story based on a small sample size.  He has two starts under his belt in his young career, allowing nine earned runs over ten innings.  His first and only start at home saw six runs cross the plate in just four innings.  But that WAS his MLB debut and he was facing the Cubs.  That’s a pretty difficult debut to say the least.  I expect him to be steadier tonight and to fare better than six earned in four innings.

There will be some runs tonight, but I think we can keep it under a dozen.

Free Pick:  Run TOTAL UNDER 11.5