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Dodgers vs Rockies Pick MLB – July 13th

Patrick Corbin held up his end of the bargain, allowing just one run in seven innings, but the Diamondbacks offense sputtered.  The end result was a Diamondback win, but only by a slim 2-1 margin, so they failed to cover the runline.  So I split my picks after doubling up on the D’Backs, but I consider it a losing night given the D’Backs favored status.  Let’s bounce back today with a weekend winner.

Today’s Free Picks:

Colorado Rockies +145 at Los Angeles Dodgers -155 (Total: 7)

Tyler Chatwood (5-2, 2.74 ERA) vs. Zack Greinke (7-2, 3.91 ERA)

The Rockies finally slowed down the Dodger offense last night, winning 3-0 and stemming the tide of the Dodgers furious rise up the National League West standings.  Even more concerning for the Dodgers is the fourth inning departure of Yasiel Puig with an injured hip.  It is the third time already this season that Puig has been forced to leave a game early.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the young phenom is omitted from tonight’s lineup, but no official word has been given either way.

That leads me to my pick for tonight’s game.  With or without Puig, this game has all the makings of a game that can sneak over the super-low seven run total.  Greinke has been a little up and down this season, with an ERA near four, and in his last three starts he has allowed a 4.36 ERA with a ridiculously high (for his talent level) WHIP of 1.58.  In fact, his WHIP on the season is 1.38, which tells you he is allowing far too many base runners and walks to consistently dominate major league hitters.

The Rockies have a potent lineup.   Troy Tulowitski is rounding back into MVP-candidate form, and Carlos Gonzalez is one of the best hitters in the National League.  They boast a team batting average of .263 and scored 423 runs; both second best in the NL.  I can Greinke having some troubles tonight.

Ditto for Chatwood.  It’s been an excellent season, but his last three starts have been a little more back-to-Earth.  His ERA has been over four, his WHIP is up to 1.47 and the Rockies are just 1-2 in those games.  I’d certainly lean Dodgers tonight, but at more than -150 in most books, there isn’t a ton of great value in them tonight.  I’m intrigued by the +155 runline, but don’t fully trust Greinke.  My pick instead is the OVER 7.  It seems like a low run total for two potent offenses facing pitchers who haven’t exactly lit it up of late.

Free Pick:  Run TOTAL OVER 7