We hit our baseball pick last night with the Pirates and Tigers knotting up in their second extra-inning 1-0 game of the series (both won by the Pirates, by the way) to once again easily coast in UNDER the run total. Some of that is good fortune; 1-0 games are pretty rare in major league baseball, and to have two extra-inning one-run games in the same series, and have selected the UNDER on both of them is a rather fortunate turn of events. Winning the wager? Therein lies some skill. Running into a pair of 1-0 extra-inning games in the same series? A little less ‘skillful’… A win is a win and I’ll take it gladly.
Let’s build on some of that good momentum and find a good winner to start off the weekend.
Today’s Free Pick:
Los Angeles Dodgers -137 at Colorado Rockies +129 (Total: 7.5)
Clayton Kershaw (5-3, 1.68 ERA) vs. John Garland (3-6, 5.53 ERA)
Clayton Kershaw’s 5-3 record and 6-5 mark by the Dodgers in games he has started tells you all you need to know about the Dodger offense this season. No pitcher in baseball has better numbers overall than Kershaw. His 1.68 ERA is best in the majors. His 0.87 WHIP is third best. His .175 batting average against trails only Matt Harvey’s .172. In short, Kershaw has been an absolutely dominant pitcher yet again in 2013.
The Dodgers have some offensive woes, and Matt Kemp going to the disabled list (again) yesterday is a crushing blow. Their .245 average and 3.59 runs/nine innings are among the worst in the league, which is the primary reason five Kersahw starts have been wasted this season. However, if they are going to get on track, facing John Garland in Coors Field sounds like a pretty good recipe.
Garland has allowed more than five and a half runs per game and has been even worse the last three outings, posting a 7.31 ERA and lasting just 16 innings. His WHIP was an astronomical 2.00 during that span, and is a pretty brutal 1.63 over the course of the whole season.
I know the Dodgers have wasted more than a few Kershaw outings tonight, but I like them to get some runs off Garland tonight. And as long as they put up some runs, Kershaw will be able to handle the rest. The Dodgers have averaged 5.4 runs per game in their last eight games against the Rockies. As long as they approach that number tonight, I like them to win comfortably.
Give me the Dodgers to win, and I love the value at +125 on the runline.
Free Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers to WIN -137 & Dodgers -1.5 (+125)