Dodgers vs. Giants NLDS Game 5 Pick – October 14, 2021

This one’s for all the marbles.

As I stated in my Dodgers vs. Giants NLCS Preview, we, as baseball fans, deserved this series to begin with, but we also deserved it to go to a do-or-die Game 5 tonight in San Francisco. With the Giants back as perhaps the best team in baseball, this rivalry is back with authority and should be for years to come.

For now, we’ll dial in on this Game 5 matchup with a Dodgers vs. Giants NLDS Game 5 pick from Oracle Park in San Fran!

Dodgers vs. Giants NLDS Game 5 Betting Odds

*Odds courtesy of BetOnline

Teams Moneyline Puck Line Total
Dodgers +103 +1.5 (-215) Over 7 (+100)
Giants -113 -1.5 (+185) Under 7 (-120)

Dodgers vs. Giants NLDS Game 5 Starting Pitching Matchup

Dodgers

We’ll see what Dave Roberts has in mind with his pitching staff throughout this one, but the club announced today that reliever Corey Knebel will open this one with Julio Urias likely to get some innings after, although the latter is my own speculation.

Knebel made the first four starts of his career this season with the Dodgers as part of his 27 appearances on the season, and he’s pitched extremely well to the tune of a 2.45 ERA/2.90 FIP with a 10.52 K/9 while holding home runs to just 0.70 HR/9. Of course, we shouldn’t expect any length from Knebel as only once in his 27 outings this season did he complete two innings, interesting in an outing in San Francisco when he opened on Sept. 3.

While Knebel posted a 1.59 ERA/1.76 FIP as a starter in just 5.2 innings this season, his home/road splits are more notable. While he was lights out to the tune of a 0.82 ERA at home while holding opponents to a .135 batting average, he also posted a 3.68 ERA on the road. He still allowed just a .204 average and a .268 wOBA on the road, but both of his homers allowed this season came on the road, good for a 1.23 HR/9 in 14.2 road innings this season.

Giants

Even though Kevin Gausman has been considered the ace this season and dominated en route to having his name in the Cy Young discussion, the Giants have precisely who they want on the mound in this one in 24-year-old Logan Webb.

Webb posted ERA figures north of 5.00 in parts of two seasons to open up his MLB career, but came back this season and hurled a 3.03 ERA/2.72 FIP with walking just 2.18 batters per nine alongside a sparkling 0.55 HR/9. Among pitchers that pitched at least 140 innings this season, only Corbin Burnes posted a superior home-run rate to Webb.

The fact he’s getting the nod at home is super important as that single-game lead over the Dodgers to finish the regular season looms large now. That’s because Webb turned in a sparkling 1.96 ERA/2.35 FIP at home this season where his K-rate rose to 10.55 K/9, his walk rate dropped to just 1.84 BB/9 and his home run rate slightly lowered to just 0.49 HR/9. He posted an outstanding 5.73 K/BB ratio at home this season.

You might remember an outstanding performance in Game 1 of this series when Webb twirled 7.2 innings of shutout ball, striking out 10 and walking zero en route to a 4-0 Giants win. His other start against the Dodgers at home this season consisted of six innings of one-run ball with just three hits and one walk allowed alongside five strikeouts back on July 27.

Offense and Bullpen Notes

Dodgers

The Dodgers’ lineup remains loaded even without the services of Max Muncy in this series — and perhaps beyond — but there’s no doubt they were a far superior offense at home this season.

While they posted some of the game’s best offensive numbers at home, they slipped to a share of 12th with a .315 wOBA on the road where their power dipped to only a .156 ISO that ranked them 20th league wide. The road production down the stretch was even worse and their road numbers versus right-handed pitching were brutal.

Over the final 30 days of the regular season, the Dodgers’ road offense ranked 21st with a .297 wOBA and 19th with a .160 ISO on the road, but also ranked 29th with a .270 wOBA and 27th with a .128 ISO on the road against righties over the regular season’s final 30 days.

After being stymied by Webb in Game 1 they touched up Gausman and the Giants’ bullpen for nine runs on the road in Game 2, but Webb’s clearly had their number and it will be another difficult task for this Dodgers offense tonight.

As for the bullpen, it’s been extremely good as expected in this series, allowing just three runs in four games and no more than one run in any of the games in this series. It’s similar to the work they put forth in the regular season as their 3.16 bullpen ERA was the second-best in baseball while they pitched to a 3.03 ERA on the road as a bullpen as well, also good for the second-best figure in baseball.

Giants

The bats certainly showed up for San Fran this season, led by a seemingly aging core as they got big seasons out of Brandon Crawford, Evan Longoria and Buster Posey who opted out of the 2020 season all together.

The Giants ranked among the best offenses in baseball in just about every category possible. As per their wOBA, they were tied for the fourth-best overall offense in baseball and the eighth-best home offense in baseball. If we take out the park factors at the pitcher-friendly Oracle Park, their 114 wRC+ at home puts them into a tie for the sixth-best home offense in baseball alongside the Tampa Bay Rays.

They actually haven’t hit a ton in this series, however. The Giants have scored just nine runs across the four games while the Dodgers have scored 16, although they’ve also been shutout twice. No doubt the Giants’ offense will need to be better to close it out tonight.

I noted the Dodgers’ bullpen ranked second in baseball this season, but of course the only bullpen that fared better was this Giants group at a 2.99 ERA, a mark that was nearly replicated both at home and on the road as they worked to a third-ranked 3.01 ERA at home this season.

They haven’t been great in two of the four games in this series and they allowed four runs as a group in Game 4, two of which came from Jake McGee who was one of, if not their best reliever this season.

This is another area the Giants will need to be better at tonight.

Betting Trends

Dodgers

  • Dodgers are 5-2 in their last seven road playoff games
  • Dodgers are 44-13 in their last 57 overall
  • Under is 15-1 in the Dodgers’ last 16 games following an off day
  • Under is 5-2 in the Dodgers’ last seven playoff games

Giants

  • Giants are 22-5 in their last 27 games following an off day
  • Giants are 13-4 in their last 17 playoff home games
  • Under is 11-4 in the Giants’ last 15 games following an off day
  • Over is 5-2 in the Giants’ last seven games following a loss

Head to Head

  • Giants are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings
  • Dodgers are 13-6 in the last 19 meetings in San Francisco
  • Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings

Dodgers vs. Giants NLDS Game 5 Pick

Some will look at the Dodgers and note how experienced they are in these situations. And they’re right. This group has been together for a long time and experienced plenty of postseason drama in their time.

That said, while the same experience isn’t shared up and down this Giants roster, make no mistake, they have experience too. Posey and Crawford have three World Series rings apiece to their credit, and that’s two key cogs in this lineup playing premium positions.

I just find it extremely difficult to bet against Webb here. It’s his first postseason action this year for the youngster, but he was electric in Game 1 and has been dealing at home all season long. The Dodgers are obviously a more-than-capable offense, but they have been shutout twice in four games in this series.

Dave Roberts is going to deploy that elite bullpen throughout this game, but my money is on Webb to pitch his club into an NLCS matchup with the Braves in this one tonight.

Dodgers vs. Giants Bet
GIANTS
-113
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Brenton Kemp / Author

Brenton is a lifelong sports fan who resides in Ontario, Canada. Brenton is a fan of most all sports but specializes in hockey, baseball, football, basketball, and golf. He’s a fierce researcher with a strong appetite to deliver accurate and relevant facts that in turn have led to past success with picks and DFS advice across the board. Brenton’s biggest goal is to deliver readers with the picks and advice that can build their bankroll. He takes great pride in his success and loves nothing more than to share that success for the benefit of everyone involved.

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