Last night’s DraftKings MLB DFS Picks produced some excellent results up and down the lineup as we were able to secure some profits to get our week started on the right note.
Our top pitcher Mike Foltynewicz produced as we had hoped as he dominated a weak Marlins lineup with his eight innings one one-run ball to go along with seven strikeouts. Thanks to some quality run supports from his teammates, and our stack, Foltynewicz was able to register his 10th win of the season with the strong outing.
Our second pitcher was a bit of a roll of the dice, but the savings we accumulated by using him paid off with the bats we were able to use. Sean Reid-Foley, in his first big league start, was decent in spinning five innings of three-run ball to go along with three strikeouts.
Unfortunately, his teammates weren’t able to give him run support and he took a loss in his MLB debut.
Our four-man Braves stack may have been chalk, but produced nonetheless. Ronald Acuna Jr., for the second time of the day, led off the game with a home run, just like he did earlier in the first game of the twin bill. Freddie Freeman also homered in the stack, while the four Braves went a combined 8 for 17 (.471) with two homers, four runs scored and four RBI.
Our three-man Cardinals stack also delivered with both Jedd Gyorko and Paul DeJong homering, while Harrison Bader doubled and a scored a run. Excellent production here as well.
Lastly, we received an extremely low-owned homer from Angels catcher Jose Briceno while the youngster also doubled as well. What value we received here.
At the end of the day, this lineup was electric, and we will look to keep the good times rolling on tonight’s big 14-game slate!
BOS @ PHI
P – J.A. Happ (NYY) – $9,500 vs. TB
We have a few elite arms on the slate tonight, but I am going to duck those top arms and slide down the list a bit to J.A. Happ as my top arm of the slate. Both Corey Kluber and Justin Verlander have endured some tough outings lately and James Paxton faces a powerful A’s offense, so I am going to use Happ against a targetable offense versus the Rays at home. Happ has sparkled through two starts as a Yankee, hurling a combined 12 innings while allowing just four earned runs to go along with 11 strikeouts. He punched out nine in his last outing across six innings, and his strikeout upside gets a boost thanks to the Rays and their 23.7% strikeout clip against lefties, tied with the Twins for the fourth-highest mark in baseball. As usual, he should get some run support from one of the best offenses in baseball tonight.
P – Jaime Barria (LAA) – $7,300 vs. SD
Barria may not rack up a ton of strikeouts, but he gets an extremely favorable matchup tonight against one of baseball’s worst offenses in a pitching-friendly venue at San Diego. Barria enters play tonight sporting a nice 3.59 ERA on the season, however his 17.6% strikeout rate leaves plenty to be desired. That said, Barria is facing a Padres team that has the second-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season at 25.7%. His last time out, Barria pitched 5.2 innings of scoreless ball to go along with five strikeouts against an equally poor Tigers offense. I would love a stat line just like that from the impressive rookie tonight in San Diego.
C – Salvador Perez (KC) – $3,500 vs. TOR
The Royals aren’t one of the league’s best offenses, but I think we can squeeze in a mini-stack against Blue Jays’ southpaw Ryan Borucki. Borucki has allowed just one home run to a right-handed hitter this season in 35.2 innings, and has pitched to a 3.27 FIP against them. However, his 4.99 xFIP against righties indicates how well he has pitched against righties with an average HR/FB rate of 10% worked in. In other words, his ERA is indicated to be almost 5.00 when his home run numbers inevitably normalize. Perez is a good candidate to take the lefty deep tonight as he owns a powerful .204 ISO against lefties and has clubbed 19 homers on the season. He could provide great value tonight.
1B – Yonder Alonso (CLE) – $4,300 vs. CIN
Rostering a cleanup hitter at a fair price when he team is projected to score 5.2 runs makes plenty of sense to me. Alonso hasn’t provided much in the batting average category, but he most certainly has some pop in that bat against righties as evidenced by his .213 ISO and .798 OPS off of opposite-handed pitching. Alonso has hit for plenty of power in the second half of the season as he owns a big .273 ISO since the All-Star break while he takes on a right-hander in Sal Romano who has yielded a hue .942 OPS and .396 wOBA to left-handed hitters at home this season.
2B – Jason Kipnis (CLE) – $4,100 vs. CIN
I really like the Kipnis play tonight against a pitcher who allowed plenty of damage to lefties while hitting in a hitter-friendly environment at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. There is also the fact that Kipnis has actually turned his season around after a rough start as he owns a real impressive .847 OPS in the month of August and has posted an ISO of at least .177 in two of the last three months. Kipnis is 7 for 13 (.538) with two doubles, a run scored and four RBI over his last three games to boot. He and Alonso form what should be a very high-upside stack at somewhat lower ownership than their teammates in this matchup.
3B – Justin Turner (LAD) – $4,300 vs. SF
The Dodgers are the league’s fifth most powerful team at home with a .191 ISO at Dodger stadium while they take on a pitcher in Andrew Suarez whose road ERA of 5.61 greatly exceeds his home ERA of 3.79. He’s also allowed a .950 OPS to right-handed hitters on the road, so I am going to target the rookie with a four-man, right-handed hitting Dodgers stack tonight, beginning here with Turner. Turner is once again mashing left-handed pitching as evidenced by his .217 ISO and 1.026 OPS against them on the season. He’s been fighting injuries for most of the year, which has lowered his home run output, but against a lefty who struggles on the road against righties, Turner makes for a real nice play tonight.
SS – Manny Machado (LAD) – $4,500 vs. SF
Machado hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire as a member of the Dodgers, but as a power right-handed bat against Suarez, he makes for an easy play at what I believe is a very attractive price for the All-Star. Besides, Machado has hit left-handed pitching for a .211 ISO and .882 OPS on the season, and he’s notched four doubles over his last eight games. Projected to hit in the very value three-hole again tonight, Machado makes perfect sense in this stack tonight.
OF – Kike Hernandez (LAD) – $4,000 vs. SF
If you follow these lineups a lot, I like to use Hernandez against left-handed pitching for a couple of reasons. First, I know the power is there as he hit lefties for a massive .309 ISO and .946 OPS last season, and still owns a nice .182 ISO against them this year, although he’s flipped his splits a little bit and has hit righties for more power than lefties in 2018. Second, Hernandez usually takes over the cleanup spot against left-handed pitching, and considering Suarez’s big-time struggles against righties on the road, he should be afforded some RBI chances on top of the home run and extra-base upside.
OF – Matt Kemp (LAD) – $3,700 vs. SF
Kemp has scuffled at the plate over the last little while, but tonight he is presented with a good opportunity to get things going again at the plate. Despite the recent struggles, Kemp is still clobbering left-handed pitching to the tune of a big-time .278 ISO and .874 OPS for the season. Again, Kemp has logged just three this since July 24th, so the struggles are deep, so I wouldn’t blame you if you avoided him. That said, his price is a real nice discount and the matchup is still favorable, so let’s look for Kemp to turn things around at the dish tonight.
OF – Whit Merrifield (KC) – $4,600 vs. TOR
Finally completing our Royals mini-stack is Merrifield who owns some big-time numbers against left-handed pitching again this season. Merrifield enters play sporting a .352 average, .190 ISO and 933 OPS against lefties while he’s actually swiped 10 of his 25 bases against southpaws this season. Merrifield enjoyed a three-hit night in the Royals victory last night after tallying just one hit in his previous for games. Perhaps we are catching the lefty-masher on the upswing tonight as he provides real attractive cross-category upside in this matchup tonight.