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DraftKings MLB DFS Picks – August 16th

Last night’s DraftKings MLB DFS Picks were decent, and we received some low-owned production, but as a group, the picks weren’t likely good enough to notch any profits on the slate.

Our top pitcher Kevin Gausman ultimately got the job done with six innings of two-run ball while notching the win over the Marlins. That said, Gausman struck out just two, so we left some production on the table there for sure.

Our second starter Shane Bieber didn’t fare as well as he lasted just 4.1 innings and allowed three earned runs. Bieber yielded all three runs in the first, but ultimately he could not last long enough to receive the win on the Indians comeback 4-3 victory.

Our four-man Cardinals stack wasn’t all that great, but we did receive nice value with Marcell Ozuna who hit a solo home run. Aside from Ozuna, there wasn’t much damage done within this stack.
Our Indians mini-stack performed well as Melky Cabrera clubbed a low-owned solo homer, while Jason Kipnis walked and scored a run.

Lastly, we received more low-owned production from Brandon Lowe of the Rays who notched the first two hits of his big league career while also racking up the first two RBI over his career. Willy Adames contributed a pair of walks to complete the mini-stack.

Certainly we wanted more extra-base production from this lineup, and our pitching didn’t give us the boost we needed. Let’s turn our attention to tonight’s seven-game main slate and notch some profits like we did earlier in the week!

P – Clay Buchholz (ARI) – $9,500 vs. SD

This slate is certainly a little light on pitching, but I will go with the best matchup on the slate and look at right-hander Clay Buchholz as my top arm on the night. Buchholz is in the midst of a resurgent season, his first with the Diamondbacks, as he enters tonight’s contest sporting a tidy 2.67 ERA to go along with a solid 20.9% strikeout rate. That strikeouts rate gets a boost tonight in San Diego as the Padres are tied with the White Sox for the highest strikeout rate in baseball against right-handed pitching at 25.8%. There are also the pitching-friendly confines of Petco Park to consider here, so let’s lock in the veteran righty in this favorable matchup.

P – Sam Gaviglio (TOR) – $6,800 vs. KC

Gaviglio is a roll of the dice given his 4.86 ERA on the season, but matchup-wise, he is in a nice spot tonight against the lowly Royals in Kansas City. Gaviglio has been a little Jekyll and Hyde this season, but he is coming off a strong effort against the Rays in which he struck out seven across 5.1 innings, but took a tough-luck loss in the process. Nonetheless, the Royals rank 27th with a .677 OPS against right-handed pitching this season and they rank 21st with a .301 wOBA over the last seven days. Gaviglio has decent strikeout stuff with a solid 22% strikeout rate on the season, so I will roll the dice on the right-hander as the Blue Jays are -126 favorites at the moment.

C – Mitch Garver (MIN) – $3,500 vs. DET

There are 14 teams in action on this slate, but I am going to go with what should be a fairly low-owned stack with the Twins against Tigers left-hander Francisco Liriano tonight. Liriano has yielded an .824 OPS to right-handed bats compared to a tiny .448 OPS to lefties, so we are certainly going to stack four right-handed hitters here, beginning with Garver. Garver sports some reverse splits on the season, but last season he hit lefties for a big .984 OPS at the Triple-A level. He has yet to hit lefties for much power in the big leagues, but considering Liriano’s splits, I am comfortable with this play as part of a stack.

1B – Tyler Austin (MIN) – $3,800 vs. DET

There are many attractive first basemen on this slate, but Austin is a sneaky-good play against the southpaw Liriano. Austin has made just three starts since coming over to the Twins at the deadline in the Lance Lynn trade with the Yankees, but he’s already homered in a Twins uniform. Also, he absolutely obliterates left-handed pitching as Austin sports a huge .298 ISO and .867 OPS against left-handed pitching this season and posted a massive 1.173 OPS against lefties at Triple-A last season. He is a high ceiling play at a very attractive price.

2B – Rougned Odor (TEX) – $4,900 vs. LAA

The Rangers are projected to score a slate-high six runs tonight at home against the Angels, so let’s make sure we get some exposure to that total beginning here with Odor. He has mashed so far in August as evidenced by his unworldly .346 ISO and 1.082 OPS for the month, and in the second half he owns a massive .347 ISO and 1.119 OPS. He’s slowed down a bit over the last handful of games, but doubled in his last game and should once again hit in the two-hole where he’s hit in every August game so far.

3B – Miguel Sano (MIN) – $4,500 vs. DET

Sano was sent down to the minors in July to work out the kinks, and he’s come back and performed better since returning. Sano has a real nice .196 ISO and .813 OPS since coming back to the big leagues, with that OPS figure a great increase over his .675 mark before going down. Sano has interestingly struggled against lefties this year, but the fact he owns a career .242 ISO and .841 OPS against southpaws makes me believe the power will come. Sano has also posted a huge .268 ISO and .871 OPS for the month of August, so there’s little doubt that we want him in this stack.

SS – Elvis Andrus (TEX) – $4,400 vs. LAA

Andrus brings solid cross-category upside to the table, although he’s not hitting for as much home run power as he did in each of the last two years. Andrus is displaying some reverse-splits, however, with a .303 average and .781 OPS against right-handed pitching compared to a .239 average and .670 OPS against left-handed pitching. Andrus brings some stolen base upside to the plate against the right-hander Taylor Cole with four steals on the season, all coming off righties. Keep in mind Andrus missed a big chunk of time with a broken elbow, so that stolen base figure would be higher over a full season. He makes sense in this stack as he will hit near the top of the order tonight.

OF – Shin-Soo Choo (TEX) – $5,100 vs. LAA

Choo is an on-base machine and I would be shocked if we didn’t lock in some production with this play. His huge .393 OBP increases to .401 against right-handed pitching, however his .234 ISO and .924 OPS against right-handed pitching greatly outweighs his .113 ISO and .742 OPS against left-handed pitching. Choo enjoyed a better first half than the one he is enduring in the second half, but as the leadoff hitter for a team projected to score six runs, this is a high-floor play on this small slate.

OF – Johnny Field (MIN) – $3,200 vs. DET

Field is a low-owned play that will complete our four-man Twins stack against the southpaw Liriano. Field has hit lefties for power this season, in fact, as he sports a .197 ISO against them while his mediocre .711 OPS against them still outweighs his .537 mark against righties. Field brings a bit of stolen base upside to the table as well with four steals on the season, with one of those coming against a southpaw. Some low-owned production from Field would go a long way for this lineup tonight.

OF – Randall Grichuk (TOR) – $4,200 vs. KC

A one-off outfielder that has an encouraging matchup tonight is Grichuk who takes on Royals right-hander Glenn Sparkman tonight. Grichuk is actually sporting some notable reverse-splits this season as he owns a .256 ISO and .777 OPS against righties compared to a .156 ISO and .651 OPS against lefties. He’s hit for a .230 ISO and .811 OPS in the second half as opposed to a .221 ISO and even .700 OPS in the first half. I am more than happy to lock in Grichuk and his reverse-splits in this matchup tonight.

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