Last night’s DraftKings MLB DFS Picks were a little up and down as we got some big-time production from some, however some disappointing production from others while a couple of our players didn’t start.
Our top arm Lance Lynn endured a disappointing outing against the light-hitting Marlins as Lynn was tagged for five earned runs in just 5.1 innings of work. He did strike out six, but that’s just not good enough against one of the worst offenses in baseball in a pitcher-friendly venue.
Our second starter Jon Gray fared much better in his home start against another light-hitting club in the Padres. Gray hurled 6.1 innings of two-run ball to go along with five strikeouts in a 6-2 Rockies win. He earned his 10th win of the season in the process.
Our top stack of the Diamondbacks worked well, however both Ketel Marte and Jon Jay did not start. I say it worked well because the remaining two members of the stack hit home runs as Paul Goldschmidt and David Peralta went yard while Goldschmidt added a double as well.
Our second stack didn’t work quite as well. The Tigers scored just a pair of runs against the Cubs, with a double and two singles coming off the bat of outfielder Nicholas Castellanos. Jose Iglesias and Jeimer Candelario recorded singles themselves, but we needed more production from that stack.
We have a tiny four-game slate on tap tonight, but still some money to be made, so let’s get after it!
P – Tyler Glasnow (TB) – $8,400 vs. KC
In terms of pure strikeout upside, Glasnow is the top arm on this slate and he also had an excellent matchup at home against the light-hitting Kansas City Royals. First, the Royals rank 27th with a .685 team OPS against right-handed pitching. Second, Glasnow has elite strikeout stuff as he’s racked up a 11.9 K/9 at both stops this season as he was reliever with the Pirates and now a starter with the Rays. Since coming to the Rays, the big right-hander has posted a 3.38 ERA and a 3.64 FIP, but most of that ERA comes from a start against the Red Sox where he yielded four earned runs in 6.2 innings of work. In his other starts with the Rays, he has allowed just three earned runs across 12 innings to go along with 20 strikeouts. I think he can crush value in this matchup tonight.
P – Sean Newcomb (ATL) – $7,800 vs. MIA
Newcomb also has himself a nice matchup tonight against a weak Marlins lineup at the pitcher-friendly Marlins Park in Miami. Newcomb has compiled a 3.73 ERA on the season while he has struck out opposing hitters at a 21.7% clip. There is some caution to be had here as Newcomb has been blasted for 12 earned runs against over his last two starts following a string of three straight starts in which he allowed just one earned run in each. The fact that the Marlins are projected to score just 3.4 runs tonight and with the Braves pegged as -182 favorites, I am liking the win upside of the young lefty as well. We can also extract some nice value here.
C – Mitch Garver (MIN) – $3,500 vs. OAK
Even on a four-game slate, I think the Twins will see small ownership against right-hander Trevor Cahill, so I am going to use that to my advantage tonight and roster a trio of Minnesota players this evening, beginning here with Garver. Garver is riding a six-game hitting streak into tonight’s contest while he’s notched a hit in 10 of his last 11 contests. He’s also displayed some serious reverse-splits in his first full big league campaign with a rock-solid .181 ISO and .843 OPS against right-handers this season compared to a poor .090 ISO and .534 OPS against left-handed pitching. With that kind of pop against righties, I like Garver a lot as a low-owned play tonight.
1B – Anthony Rizzo (CHC) – $4,700 vs. CIN
Reds right-hander Anthony DeSclafani has been real good over his last two starts, but after five straight games scoring just one run, the Cubs’ offense broke out with eight runs in last night’s win in Detroit, and Rizzo has been hot. He accounted for all of the Cubs’ offense on Tuesday with a solo home run, and he also homered in last night’s win. Rizzo has clobbered right-handed pitching for a .223 ISO and .891 OPS on the season and has a .243 ISO and .938 OPS for the month of August so far. I will ride his red-hot bat into tonight’s slate.
2B – Logan Forsythe (MIN) – $3,100 vs. OAK
Forsythe was enduring a very poor season while with the Dodgers, but since coming to Minnesota, he has completely turned things around. Forsythe enters play sporting an .869 OPS as a member of the Twins, albeit without a home run across 69 at-bats. He’s coming off a three-hit night from last night with an RBI, his eighth multi-hit effort in Minnesota across 19 games. He’s notched a double and a triple in 12 at-bats against Cahill, so I will ride the hot bat of Forsythe as well this evening.
3B – Miguel Sano (MIN) – $4,000 vs. OAK
He’s hitless in his last four games, but Sano has been very good since coming back up to the big leagues from a stint in the minors. In the month of August, Sano has posted a .770 OPS and .217 ISO with that OPS figure being the highest of any single month of the season so far. Despite pummelling lefties last season, Sano has displayed some reverse splits this season as he owns a .218 ISO and .739 OPS against righties compared to a .167 ISO and .615 OPS against lefties. I am fully on board with locking in the powerful 25-year-old at what should be more than reasonable ownership.
SS – Javier Baez (CHC) – $4,700 vs. CIN
Baez brings some excellent cross-category upside to the table most nights he takes the field, and he too homered in last night’s game in Detroit. I like the fact that Baez’s splits are just about dead even in terms of power this season, but I also like the fact he has stolen 20 bases with 14 of those coming against right-handed pitchers. Baez has also been very consistent this year, hitting for at least a .233 ISO in every month of the season while sporting a big .276 number in the month of August. Given the cross-category upside, Baez makes for an excellent play once again tonight.
OF – Kyle Schwarber (CHC) – $4,200 vs. CIN
Schwarber makes for an excellent play tonight as he literally does all of his damage against right-handed pitching. For example, he has hit 22 homers this season, all of which have come against righties. Therefore, he has a huge .266 ISO and .877 OPS on the season against right-handed pitching. After a fairly slow month of August so far, Schwarber’s power has picked up again with a homer in two of his last four games. Interestingly, he also stole a base in his most recent game on Tuesday, his fourth steal of the season. That said, we’re all about the power upside here and we get plenty of that with Schwarber against a righty.
OF – Ian Happ (CHC) – $3,800 vs. CIN
I think we can get real nice value upside here with Happ against DeSclafani. The switch-hitting youngster isn’t hitting for a much of a batting average, but I like the fact that he boasts far superior power numbers against right-handed pitching. Happ enters play sporting a .192 ISO and .811 OPS on the season against right-handed pitching compared to a .135 ISO and .676 OPS against lefties. Unfortunately, Happ has been slumping in the month of August, but he’s part of a four-man stack here at a very attractive price, so I have no problem rolling with his power upside nonetheless.
OF – Khris Davis (OAK) – $5,700 vs. MIN
You didn’t think we were going to roll out a lineup without the white-hot bat of Khris Davis did you? The slugger is now tied with J.D. Martinez for the MLB lead with 38 home runs on the season. He also enters tonight’s contest sporting a massive .448 ISO and 1.134 OPS for the month of August. Although he hits for plenty of power against both lefties and righties, he is definitely a reverse splits hitter and hits righties for more power. He has clobbered right-handers for a massive .327 ISO and .931 OPS on the season and a .385 ISO and 1.048 OPS at home against righties. I am going to roll with the slugger against a right-hander in Kohl Stewart of the Twins.