Last night’s DraftKings MLB DFS Picks delivered some real nice results and most of the picks were good enough to land you in the money on the small four-game slate.
We used Tyler Glasnow as the top pitcher on the night, and while he lasted just five innings and yielded three earned runs, Glasnow also struck out eight Royals on the night to post a solid score despite not landing in the win column.
Our second starter on the night, Sean Newcomb, delivered big-time as he hurled six shutouts innings to go along with eight strikeouts in a win over the light-hitting Marlins in Miami. The victory was Newcomb’s 11th of the season as he bounced back from back-to-back brutal outings prior to this one.
Our top stack of the Cubs produced impressive results. Anthony Rizzo and Javier Baez both homered for the Cubs, marking the third straight game with a homer for Rizzo and the second straight for Baez. Baez also doubled and stole a base as well. We got plenty of value out of the bat of Ian Happ as Happ doubled and stole a base while drawing a pair of walks to boot. Unfortunately, Kyle Schwarber posted a zero inside this stack.
Our Twins trio produced a little bit, but Miguel Sano did not start and neither did Mitch Garver. However, Garver logged two at-bats as a pinch hitter and produced a double, two RBI and a run scored. Logan Forsythe had just a single.
Our lineup was completed by yet another Khris Davis home run as he overtook J.D. Martinez for the MLB lead with his 39th long ball of the season.
We will look to make it back-to-back profitable nights as we take on a 14-game main slate heading into the weekend!
P – Mike Foltynewicz (ATL) – $11,100 vs. MIA
I don’t think there’s any way we can fade Foltynewicz considering his matchup, strikeout upside and recency. Foltynewicz will take on a Marlins team that was just shutout last night by his teammate Sean Newcomb and the Braves bullpen. Miami enters play tonight sporting a team .674 OPS against right-handed pitching this season, good for 28th league-wide. For his part, Foltynewicz has crafted a 2.27 ERA to go along with a big-time 28.2% strikeout clip as well. He’s almost been dominant as of late, yielding just two earned runs over his last three starts spanning 20.2 innings to go along with 23 strikeouts. He sports a 1.35 ERA and a 26.9% strikeout rate in August so far, so let’s not think twice here and roster the hard-throwing righty in this favorable matchup.
P – Alex Cobb (BAL) – $5,200 vs. NYY
Wait, what? Well, given the high cost of Foltynewicz, I am looking to pay down for our second starter. This clearly is a risky play, so consider this a GPP lineup at this point, but I think Cobb could provide sneaky value tonight against the Yankees. After struggling immensely out of the gates this season, Cobb has rattled off a 1.55 ERA for the month of August across 29 innings. He actually hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a start since July 8th and is coming off a complete game while allowing just two earned runs against an elite Indians offense on the road. Furthermore, he hurled six innings of one-run ball to go along with six strikeouts while notching the win over these very Yankees on August 1st at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees are without Aaron Judge and Didi Gregorius as well, and they have the league’s 12th-highest strikeout rate against righties. Cobb could provide nice value given his run of excellent outings.
C – Elias Diaz (PIT) – $4,200 vs. MIL
The Pirates will take on left-hander Wade Miley tonight in Milwaukee, a pitcher that is due for some big-time regression. Miley has crafted a tidy 2.18 ERA on the season, but his 4.12 FIP and 4.54 xFIP suggest some regression in his future. He also doesn’t strikeout out anyone and has a high walk rate, a good combination if you are the Pirates tonight. Enter Diaz who has destroyed left-handed pitching for a .352 average, .239 ISO and .961 OPS on the season. It’s a small sample, but Diaz is also 2 for 5 with a double in his career against Miley. Given his numbers against southpaws, this is a big-time play here tonight.
1B – David Freese (PIT) – $3,800 vs. MIL
Typically I want to use a more powerful bat at the first base position, but I think the Pirates knock Miley around tonight and Freese has enjoyed nice success against Miley in their history against one another. Freese is hitting a solid .286 with a .767 OPS on the season against left-handed pitching and he’s 6 for 15 (.400) with a homer and four walks in his career against Miley. He’s also posted a powerful .213 ISO and .848 OPS so far in the season’s second half, so we will include him in this GPP-aimed lineup tonight at first base.
2B – Brian Dozier (LAD) – $4,300 vs. SD
The Dodgers take on left-hander Clayton Richard tonight at Dodger Stadium, a pitcher they have hit very well in the past, although Dozier has never faced him in his career. Dozier hasn’t hit overly well with the Dodgers so far, but he is going to be the leadoff man in this matchup and brings nice cross-category upside to the table with 19 home runs and 11 stolen bases on the season. Considering Richard has allowed an .843 OPS to right-handed hitters on the road this season, there’s little doubt I want Dozier tonight out of that valuable leadoff spot.
3B – Justin Turner (LAD) – $4,800 vs. SD
This one is a layup as Turner has been mashing lately, mashes lefties in a big way and has excellent career numbers against Richard. Over the last nine games, Turner has homered three times and doubled four times, has seven RBI and nine runs scored to go along with a stolen base. For the month of August, Turner is hitting for a massive .304 ISO and 1.177 OPS. Against left-handed pitching this season, Turner has produced a .365 average, .216 ISO and 1.048 OPS. In his career against Richard, Turner has gone 9 for 21 (.429) with a homer and a double to go along with seven runs scored. I think we have ourselves a favorable matchup here.
SS – Manny Machado (LAD) – $4,800 vs. SD
After a slow start to his Dodgers tenure, Machado has been hitting for plenty of power lately with three homers over his last six games. Machado has also provided sneaky stolen base upside this season as he’s swiped 12 bags after stealing nine all of last year and zero the previous season. Machado is boasting fairly even splits this season as he has produced a .304 average, .215 ISO and .915 OPS on the season against left-handed pitching. Given his recency and cross-category appeal, Machado is certainly a player to keep an eye on tonight.
OF – Matt Kemp (LAD) – $4,100 vs. SD
Last man up in the Dodgers stack is Kemp who has seen his bat perk off after struggling immensely from late July into the middle of August. Kemp has recorded a pair of multi-hit games over his last five while he’s reached base 10 times over his last five as well. There is also the fact that Kemp has crushed left-handed pitching for the majority of the season while he owns some unreal power numbers against Richard. Kemp has produced a .252 ISO and .845 OPS on the season against left-handed pitching and has gone 15 for 38 (.395) with three homers and five doubles in his career against Richard, good for a massive .368 ISO and 1.178 OPS against the veteran southpaw.
OF – Starling Marte (PIT) – $4,200 vs. MIL
Marte completes our three-man Pirates stack as he brings quality power/speed upside to the table against the left-hander Miley. Marte has hit lefties for a nice .188 ISO on the season while he’s swiped five bases against a lefty this season, but 28 overall. Marte has enjoyed some success against Miley in the past has he’s gone 8 for 18 (.444) with a double and a stolen base against the southpaw. His production has been a little down for the month, but I’ll still take his power/speed upside, especially as part of a three-man stack.
OF – Mikie Mahtook (DET) – $3,100 vs. CWS
The remaining spot that didn’t monetarily fit into my stacks is an outfield spot, and I am going to roll with Mahtook who should see minuscule ownership, making him a nice GPP look considering his recency. Mahtook struggled immensely at the beginning of the year, leading to a demotion to the minors, but he has caught fire lately with three homers over his last seven games, including one yesterday. Mahtook does have pop as he homered 12 times last season in a part-time role and hit 11 homers and for a .201 ISO at the Triple-A level this season. Lastly, he brings some stolen base upside as he’s swiped eight bases between Triple-A and the big leagues this season. He’s up against a struggling pitcher in Reynaldo Lopez, so perhaps he stays hot and provides huge value again today.