Welcome to a fresh week of MLB DFS!
It’s a big week for baseball in terms of another trade deadline passing and playoff races in full throttle, but for now, let’s settle into this seven-game Monday night main slate and see if we can do some damage to get our week started on the right note!
P – Patrick Corbin (ARI) – $11,500 vs. SF
Gerrit Cole is another top arm on this slate, but his matchup against a powerful Oakland A’s lineup isn’t the best, so I am going to turn to Corbin as my top arm on the slate in a road matchup against the Giants. Corbin has produced a nice 3.17 ERA on the season, but he has still been unlucky to produce that number as evidenced by his elite 2.37 FIP and 2.62 xFIP. Corbin also brings a big-time 30.8% strikeout clip into action as well. The Giants aren’t hitting lefties well at all as their .684 OPS against lefties ranks them 24th in the league while the pitching-friendly venue of AT&T Park in San Francisco helps Corbin’s cause as well. Not much to dislike about this matchup whatsoever.
P – Jon Gray (COL) – $8,700 vs. LAA
The strikeouts have been down, but the results have been excellent for Gray lately as he makes for an excellent second starter in a road matchup against the Angels. Gray has pitched to a tidy 2.83 ERA in the season’s second half after limping to a 5.44 mark in the first half, although his peripheral numbers have been good all year long, so we’re now seeing the expected positive regression kick in. Gray’s strikeout rate is down in the second half, but still sits at a real solid 23.3% mark while he’s also cut his walk rate in the second half as well. The Angels aren’t a bad offense, but the Rockies are still -146 favorites at the moment thanks to Odrisamer Despaigne taking the ball for the home side tonight in Los Angeles. Nice bang for our buck here with Gray.
C – Willson Contreras (CHC) – $3,400 vs. NYM
We spent up on pitching tonight which means our bats are going to have to provide some value, something I think Contreras can do against right-hander Noah Syndergaard of the Mets. While the matchup against the fireballer isn’t a good one at first glance, we have to consider the fact the Cubs are projected to score 5.5 runs tonight with a big-time wind blowing out to left center field. Syndergaard also has an elevated 4.50 ERA in the month of August. Enter Contreras who is enduring somewhat of a down year, but still has pop in that bat, something the jet stream out to left should help. He has an .845 OPS at home against righties, so I will include him in a three-man Cubs stack tonight.
1B – Wilmer Flores (NYM) – $3,900 vs. CHC
Another stack that could provide some big-time value and should also go fairly low owned tonight is the Mets as they take on left-hander Jon Lester. Lester has pitched to an ugly 5.05 FIP at home this season, so I am going to target the veteran with a four-man right-handed Mets stack and take advantage of that jet stream to the pull field for righties. Flores has pummeled Lester in their history against one another as he’s went 5 for 13 (.385) with three home runs against the southpaw. Flores is traditionally a lefty-masher, but owns reverse splits this season. Still, he’s hit lefties for a powerful .214 ISO in his career, and considering the history against Lester, he makes for a high-upside play tonight.
2B – Jed Lowrie (OAK) – $3,700 vs. HOU
A second baseman didn’t hit into our stacks here, so we are rolling with a one-off play in the form of Jed Lowrie. Lowrie’s price has been dropped notably tonight, as will his ownership, against the right-hander Cole, but I think the veteran has some nice value upside at this price. After all, Lowrie has hit for a very powerful .238 ISO and .885 OPS on the season against right-handed pitching, and is 4 for 13 (.308) with two doubles in his career off of Cole. He’s also doubled twice and homered twice over his last five games (four starts) and six RBI over his last six games. I see some upside here as a result.
3B – Todd Frazier (NYM) – $4,200 vs. CHC
Continuing our Mets stack is the veteran third baseman Frazier who certainly has the pop required for this stack while he too has enjoyed some career success against Lester. For the season, Frazier has not fared very well against left-handed pitching, but he’s also a big-time pull hitter (57.4%) against left-handed pitching, so the jet stream should factor into his at-bats tonight, especially given the solid 41% fly-ball rate versus lefties. In his career against Lester, Frazier is just 2 for 8, but both of those hits have went for doubles and I am looking for some more extra-base pop tonight.
SS – Amed Rosario (NYM) – $3,800 vs. CHC
Leading off for the Mets, and our stack, tonight is Rosario who has turned produced very well on the road this season, especially against left-handed pitching. He has fairly even splits against lefties and righties this season, but the fact is that Rosario has powered up to the tune of a .182 ISO and .862 OPS on the road against southpaws this season. This isn’t uncommon as the Mets actually rank third in the entire league in road OPS with an excellent .768 mark. Rosario also carries some stolen base upside into play with 15 steals on the year, and Lester has allowed 10 steals this season. Lastly, Rosario is 3 for 6 with a stolen base in his career against Lester.
OF – Austin Jackson (NYM) – $3,200 vs. CHC
Jackson is going to be a real low-owned player despite the small slate, so some production from his bat would go a long way for this lineup. Jackson hasn’t provided much pop against lefties this season, but he has gone 9 for 25 (.360) with a double and two steals in his career against Lester. Also, two of Jackson’s three steals this season (in part-time duty) have come against left-handed pitching. He’s not a big power bat, but his bat should play up given the conditions at Wrigley Field tonight, and with some stolen base upside and good history off of Lester, I don’t mind this play at tiny ownership in this stack.
OF – Kyle Schwarber (CHC) – $4,000 vs. NYM
Our lineup will finish with a pair of Cubs outfielders, beginning here with Schwarber. The left-handed power bat has clobbered right-handed pitching for a huge .273 ISO and .869 OPS on the season while all 24 of his home runs have come against righties. Schwarber has homered in back-to-back games and has clubbed four homers over his last eight contests to bring his August ISO up to a powerful .222 mark after a slow start to the month. The jet stream won’t affect the left-handed hitting Schwarber too much tonight, but he has hit for a little bit more power at home this season than on the road, so I have no problem rostering his lefty bat tonight.
OF – Ian Happ (CHC) – $3,600 vs. NYM
Last man up is Happ who provided us with some nice value last week. The switch-hitting Happ has hit for much more power against lefties than righties this season with a .190 ISO and .813 OPS against righties compared to just a .130 ISO and .656 OPS against southpaws. Happ doubled and stole a base for us last week, production that I would be completely fine with tonight. He has 13 homers, 15 doubles and six steals in part-time duty this season, so we have some cross-category appeal tonight at a solid price, so we will complete our Cubs stack, and our lineup, with the 24-year-old tonight.