Last night’s DraftKings MLB DFS Picks were ones to forget.
Our top pitcher Patrick Corbin allowed just two earned runs, both on a two-run second innings homer, and struck out nine across seven strong innings against the Giants, but received zero runs of support. Chris Stratton dominated the D-backs for eight shutouts innings, thus putting a damper on an excellent outing from Corbin.
Our second starter Jon Gray did not fare well at all as his trend of strong August starts came to a screeching halt. Gray was touched up for five earned runs in 6.2 innings of work while striking out just a single batter on the night.
Our top stack of the Mets started out good with Amed Rosario and Austin Jackson teaming up for some early offense, but at the end of the day Jose Bautista and Todd Frazier both posted goose eggs which blew apart a lower owned, high-ceiling stack against the veteran Lester.
Our second stack of the Cubs didn’t fare any better as Ian Happ did not start, while Kyle Schwarber and Willson Contreras combined for just two singles, a run scored, an RBI and a walk.
Lastly, our one-off second baseman Jed Lowrie also posted a zero despite the A’s connecting for four early runs off of Gerrit Cole.
Let’s move on from a forgettable Monday slate to take on tonight’s jam-packed 15-game slate!
P – Aaron Nola (PHI) – $10,600 vs. WAS
Nola and the Phillies have a matchup with Max Scherzer and the Nationals for the second time in a week tonight, this time at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. Nola was the battle of NL Cy Young contenders in last week’s showdown when he hurled eight scoreless innings to go along with nine strikeouts while earning his 15th win of the season. Nola continues to be the most underrated ace in baseball as he enters play sporting a 2.13 ERA and a 2.66 FIP to go along with a hefty 25.6% strikeout clip. He’s been even better at home this season with a 2.00 ERA and a 2.35 FIP while his strikeout clip rises to 28.4%. Run support might be an issue here against Scherzer, but I still like Nola at what I believe to be an attractive price tonight.
P – Jake Junis (KC) – $7,100 vs. DET
There are a bevy of other top arms on the slate aside from Nola and Scherzer, but I like the upside of Junis at this price and therefore we can afford to fit some quality bats into the lineup as well. First, Junis has pitched well since a DL stint around the All-Star break as he owns a 3.25 ERA to go along with a big 26.1% strikeout rate for the month of August so far. Second, Junis gets an extremely favorable matchup tonight against one of the worst offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching. Detroit checks in at 29th with a .664 OPS on the season against righties and 29th as well in wOBA with a .289 mark. Finally, Junis has dominated the Tigers this season as he’s hurled 22 innings of four-run ball to go along with 18 strikeouts in three starts. I think we can get nice bang for our buck here.
C – Michael Perez (TB) – $3,100 vs. ATL
We are going to roll out two stacks tonight, one of which is going to see some ownership and one of which is not. The latter is the Tampa Bay Rays as they take on right-hander Julio Teheran in Atlanta. Teheran’s numbers are certainly targetable, especially against lefties at home. He owns a 5.52 FIP and a 5.59 xFIP at home against lefties for the year while his 19% strikeout rate is barely higher than his 17% walk rate at home against lefties. There is also the fact that the Rays are the second hottest team in baseball over the last seven days as their .390 wOBA ranks second only to Houston’s .402 mark. Enter Perez who is sure to see tiny ownership on this slate but is a cost-efficient option behind the plate against a pitcher who struggles against lefties at home. He doesn’t have much MLB time under his belt but hit righties for a solid .780 OPS at Triple-A this season. He could provide huge value to this lineup with some low-owned production.
1B – Jakob Bauers (TB) – $3,800 vs. ATL
Bauers will technically lead off our four-man Rays stack tonight out of the three-hole against Teheran. The rookie has brought plenty of pop to the table against righties this season as he enters tonight’s contest sporting a powerful .201 ISO against righties with seven homers, 13 doubles and a triple against them in 179 at-bats. Bauers has indeed scuffled a little bit in the month of August, but when we combine matchup, venue, power and the three-hole in the lineup, I think we have excellent upside at an attractive price with the youngster.
2B – Jose Altuve (HOU) – $4,700 vs. OAK
The second stack we are going to roll out tonight are the red-hot Astros as they take on right-hander Edwin Jackson at home this evening. After scoring 11 runs in last night’s contest, the Astros are officially the hottest team in baseball over the last seven days with that aforementioned .402 wOBA. Altuve has also been hot since coming off the DL as he owns a 1.048 OPS and a .449 wOBA over the last seven days. Altuve is also sporting some reverse splits this season with a .911 OPS versus righties and a .763 OPS against lefties. He’s also 3 for 9 with two triples off of Jackson in his career. He is a lock for me tonight.
3B – Alex Bregman (HOU) – $5,300 vs. OAK
Alex Bregman continues to mash his way into the AL MVP conversation and is also a lock in my lineup tonight. Over the last week, Bregman has compiled a massive 1.244 OPS and a .524 wOBA and is coming off a four-hit night last night that included a double and a home run. He owns a .932 OPS for the month of August and a .231 ISO and .891 OPS against right-handed pitching for the season. Bregman has faced Jackson just five times, but he’s 2 for 5 with a homer against the right-handed veteran. Don’t think twice here.
SS – Marwin Gonzalez (HOU) – $4,200 vs. OAK
Many people will roll out Carlos Correa in this spot tonight, but sign me up for Gonzalez as he’s been the much hotter bat than the scuffling Correa. Over the last week, Gonzalez has clobbered his way to a huge 1.159 OPS and a .485 wOBA. In the season’s second half, the utility man has posted a big-time .281 ISO and .996 OPS. For the month of August, he has crushed for a massive .349 ISO and 1.108 OPS. Lastly, he’s 4 for 9 with a homer, a double and a stolen base in his career against Jackson. He’s a much better option tonight than Correa in my opinion.
OF – George Springer (HOU) – $4,200 vs. OAK
Springer comes to us at a real attractive price tonight and given his recent production and his spot as the leadoff hitter, I’m all over this guy tonight. He has played in just eight August games due to injury, but Springer has compiled a .222 ISO and .836 OPS for the month so far. He’s also posted a big .270 ISO and an .866 OPS in the season’s second half. Springer does hit lefties for more power than he does righties, but he also carries some stolen base upside against righties with five of his six steals coming against right-handers. His traditional splits don’t bother me tonight as the leadoff man for the hottest offense in baseball.
OF – Kevin Kiermaier (TB) – $4,000 vs. ATL
Kiermaier’s power is a little down as he’s battled injuries this year, but he has plenty of stolen base upside against Teheran. Teheran has yielded 11 stolen bases this season after allowing 26 last year and 17 the year before, so it’s clear we can target him in this department tonight. Kiermaier has nine stolen bases in 67 games on the season. He’s not hitting for a ton of power, but at least his production has picked up in the second half with a .158 ISO and .657 OPS since the All-Star break compared to a brutal .100 ISO and .535 OPS prior to the break.
OF – Brandon Lowe (TB) – $2,900 vs. ATL
Completing our cost-efficient, low-owned stack is rookie Brandon Lowe whose production has ramped up over the last three games. After scuffling big-time since his call up, Lowe has went 4 for 7 with four runs, two RBI, two stolen bases and four walks over his last 12 plate appearances. There is also the fact that Lowe clobbered right-handed Triple-A pitching for a big-time 1.014 OPS prior to his promotion to the big leagues. Given Teheran’s struggles at home to lefties, Lowe’s recent cross-category production and his minor league numbers against righties, I think Lowe can provide a shot in the arm to this group at a tiny price.