DraftKings MLB DFS Picks – July 12th

Last night’s DraftKings MLB DFS Picks simply weren’t good enough to earn us any profits.

We ducked a couple of the top arms on the slate with some mixed results. The Brewers’ Freddy Peralta endured the worst big league start of his young career as he lasted just 3.2 innings while yielding three earned runs. Peralta did strike out four in those 3.2 innings, but obviously that outing leaves plenty to be desired, especially compared to his earlier work.

Our second starter was much better. The Dodgers’ Kenta Maeda continued his high-strikeout ways in his start at San Diego with nine punchouts across his 5.1 innings of one-run ball. He didn’t pitch as deep into the game as I would have liked, but he earned a win and those nine strikeouts provided nice value on the night.

Unfortunately our bats mostly didn’t show up, especially our four-man Cardinals stack that was simply dominated by White Sox left-hander Carlos Rodon. We received just two singles total from our four Cardinals.
Our Indians mini-stack of Yonder Alonso and Jason Kipnis performed extremely well in a blowout win over the Reds as they combined to go 4 for 7 with a homer, four RBI, four runs scored and three walks as part of the Indians’ 19-run assault on Reds pitching.

Lastly, we didn’t get much from our Astros mini-stack as Josh Reddick and Kyle Tucker combined for just two singles on the night.

Let’s look for great improvement on tonight’s shortened seven-game main slate!

*Tonight’s lineup is going to be aimed at GPPs.

P – Ross Stripling (LAD) – $9,100 vs. SD

Despite just seven games on tonight’s slate there is a bevy of big-time arms available. That said, for GPPs, I am going to roll the dice on a couple of lower-priced arms and load up on some bats that I believe have nice upside tonight. Stripling isn’t exactly a roll of the dice as he’s been flat-out dominant this season as evidenced by his 2.22 ERA and 2.75 FIP to go along with a beautiful 28.7% strikeout clip. Stripling also gets an extremely favorable opponent tonight as the Padres are the league’s worst hitting team against right-handed pitching with their 30th-ranked .652 OPS while their 26.1% strikeout rate against righties is the highest mark in all of baseball.

P – Jameson Taillon (PIT) – $5,700 vs. MIL

I am pretty surprised to see Taillon’s price so low, especially given the fact that the Brewers are projected to score just four runs tonight. Taillon hasn’t been bad by any means this season as he’s produced a 4.05 ERA while his 3.63 FIP and 3.65 xFIP suggests he’s been solid throughout the season. He sports a solid 22.2% strikeout rate on the campaign and takes on a Brewers offense that has the fifth-highest strikeout clip against right-handed pitching at 25.2% on the season. The Brewers can hit for a lot of power at any given time, which gives Taillon a good chunk of risk tonight, but for GPPs I think he makes a lot of sense on this slate.

C – Francisco Cervelli (PIT) – $4,000 vs. MIL

The Brewers will hand the ball to veteran left-hander Wade Miley tonight as he makes just his second start of the season and his first since way back on May 2nd. Miley has only pitched 31.2 innings this season, 26.1 of which have come at the Double-A level, so I’m going to roll out a four-man right-handed hitting stack against a guy who allowed an .875 OPS to right-handed bats in the big leagues last season. Enter Cervelli who has done a lot of his damage against right-handed pitching, but has a .220 overall ISO and should be able to get to one of the most targetable pitchers on the slate tonight.

1B – Josh Bell (PIT) – $3,500 vs. MIL

Bell’s power is down from last season when he posted a .211 ISO against both lefties and righties, but the switch-hitting first baseman is having a quality season against southpaw pitching. Bell enters play tonight with a .297 average and .819 OPS on the campaign against lefties. Bell’s .355 wOBA against southpaws is a hefty one as well. He’s notched a hit in three straight games and it’s even possible that Bell moves into the leadoff spot tonight where he hit for three straight games over last weekend.

2B – Josh Harrison (PIT) – $3,600 vs. MIL

Harrison is a little cold at the plate right now, but Miley has ended a lot of cold streaks over recent seasons in the big leagues. He isn’t the same power threat he was in 2017 when he clubbed 16 home runs, but Harrison certainly has pop to go along with his decent stolen base upside with three steals on the season. He is by no means a sexy play, but as part of a four-man stack that is best reserved for GPPs, Harrison makes sense given his projected low ownership.

3B – Kyle Seager (SEA) – $3,700 vs. LAA

Seager is a one-off play in this lineup, but he is a sneaky good option against the left-hander from the Angels, Tyler Skaggs. Skaggs has been good this season, but the left-handed hitting Seager actually hits for a lot of power against left-handed pitching. Last season, he hit for a .206 ISO against lefties which was actually slightly higher than his .199 mark against righties while he owns a very solid .185 ISO against lefties this year, albeit a little under his .203 ISO versus righties. There is also the fact that Seager is 7 for 21 (.333) with two homers in his career against Skaggs.

SS – Jordy Mercer (PIT) – $3,200 vs. MIL

Mercer completes our four-man Pirates GPP stack tonight and should also hit at the tail end of the group, possibly out of the eight-hole tonight. Mercer isn’t known for his power, but he is having a solid season in the power department against left-handed pitching. Mercer is hitting .288 with a nice .784 OPS on the season against left-handed pitching, much better than his .232 average and .663 OPS against righties. Mercer doubled twice and scored a run in last night’s contest and is 5 for 11 (.455) with a double in his career against Miley. I like this value with Mercer tonight.

OF – Mookie Betts (BOS) – $6,200 vs. TOR

The Red Sox will see some ownership tonight, but with the way J.A. Happ has been getting tagged lately I am going to load up a trio of Red Sox righties against the southpaw tonight, beginning here with Betts. The AL MVP candidate has destroyed both lefties and righties this season, but owns a .357 average, .386 ISO and 1.183 OPS against left-handed pitching, astronomical numbers that are superior to his also-massive figures against right-handed pitching.

OF – J.D. Martinez (BOS) – $5,900 vs. TOR

Another AL MVP candidate, Martinez paces the big leagues with 28 homers and 79 RBI this season. While he is boasting some reverse splits this year, he is still clobbering lefties to the tune of a .220 ISO and .917 OPS on the season. Keep in mind this is a guy who posted an out-of-this-world .517 ISO (!!!) and 1.356 OPS against left-handed pitching in 2017. Furthermore, he’s hit lefties for a massive .317 ISO and 1.045 OPS at Fenway Park this season which is where he will be for tonight’s contest against the Blue Jays.

OF – Steve Pearce (BOS) – $4,500 vs. TOR

Last man up is Pearce who is simply a lefty-masher and has very good history against his former teammate Happ. Pearce was acquired by the Red Sox from the Blue Jays to start against left-handed pitching, which makes complete sense given the fact he’s hitting .339 with a .271 ISO and .991 OPS on the season against southpaws. Pearce has also obliterated Happ in their history against one another as he’s 10 for 28 (.357) with five homers and two doubles off of the veteran lefty. In all honesty, Pearce is my favorite play on this entire slate.


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