Welcome to a fresh week of MLB DFS!
Another exciting weekend of baseball is in the books.
It’s hard to believe we are already 60+ games into the MLB season as we sit in the second week of June. It’s a pleasure bringing you MLB DFS Picks on a regular basis and we will look to get our week started today on the right note.
We have an eight-game Monday night slate to dive into today, so let’s get to it and rake in some profits!
P – Madison Bumgarner (SF) – $10,400 vs. MIA
Bumgarner will toe the rubber for his second start of the season tonight against a weak offense in Miami. In his first start, the southpaw allowed two runs on eight hits across six innings of work against a Diamondbacks club that is hitting left-handed pitching very well as a team. The Marlins, however, rank 28th with a .670 team OPS against left-handed pitching. Bumgarner showed no control issues with zero walks in his first start as well, but I will also be looking for him to improve on his three strikeouts from that start tonight in a favorable matchup.
P – Jack Flaherty (STL) – $8,300 vs. SD
We will target another weak offense tonight with Cardinals’ right-hander Jack Flaherty as he takes on the Padres at home. San Diego checks in at 28th with a team .664 OPS against right-handed pitching while they’ve struck out in 28.6% of their at-bats against righties as well. Flaherty did not fare well in his last start when we rostered him, but on the season he sports a solid 3.20 ERA to go along with a 3.54 FIP. His strikeout rate sits at a nice 26.1% mark, a number that improves to 32% at home. Nothing wrong with Flaherty at an attractive price tonight.
C – Buster Posey (SF) – $4,000 vs. MIA
Marlins’ lefty Wei-Yin Chen sports an ERA of 1.06 at home this season, but he’s been incredibly lucky to get that mark as evidenced by his 4.63 FIP and 5.20 xFIP at home, so we will attack him with a trio of Giants hitters who hit lefties well. Posey isn’t hitting for the same amount of power as he used to these days, but against left-handed pitching he’s been good. Posey sports a .219 ISO and .861 OPS on the season against southpaw pitching and should hit in the prime three-hole against the veteran Chen this evening.
1B – Jose Martinez (STL) – $4,300 vs. SD
Martinez sports some reverse-splits this season which bodes well for his matchup against Padres’ right-hander Jordan Lyles tonight. Lyles has been good at home, but has been roughed up for a 6.50 ERA and a 6.72 FIP on the road this year. Enter Martinez who sports a .204 ISO and .910 OPS on the campaign against righties, both of which outweigh his numbers against left-handed pitching. Like Posey, Martinez is projected to hit in the three-hole tonight, a fantastic cross-category spot in the batting order.
2B – Matt Carpenter (STL) – $3,300 vs. SD
Carpenter should hit in the leadoff spot tonight against Lyles and he’s been swinging a hot bat after a poor start to the season. Over his last six games, Carpenter is 10 for 26 with two doubles, a homer, two RBIs, six runs scored and three walks. He’s finding his power stroke against right-handed pitchers as he’s up to a powerful .210 ISO and .810 OPS against righties on the year, numbers that are starting to resemble his .235 ISO and .883 OPS against righties in 2017.
3B – Evan Longoria (SF) – $3,700 vs. MIA
I am liking the price at which we’re getting Longoria tonight. He hasn’t hit righties well this year, but Longoria is mashing lefties to the tune of a .296 ISO and .914 OPS. He’s homered 10 times, six of which have come against southpaws which is huge considering he’s had 81 more plate appearances against right-handed pitching. He’s a little cold at the dish right now, but Longoria’s numbers against lefties and Chen’s inevitable regression make for a good matchup tonight.
SS – Daniel Robertson (TB) – $3,900 vs. TOR
This position was the last one to fill in my lineup. While Brandon Crawford is affordable here, we need to get a third team in this lineup so I am rolling with Robertson. Keep an eye on the Rays lineup as Robertson was removed from yesterday’s game with hamstring tightness, so plug in another shortstop if he does not enter the starting lineup. He’s hitting for power this season with a .166 ISO while he’s getting on base a lot with a great .385 OBP which makes his .808 OPS on the year an attractive figure.
OF – Tommy Pham (STL) – $4,500 vs. SD
Pham makes for an excellent cross-category upside play tonight against Lyles. Hitting out of the two-hole, Pham has nine homers, 45 runs scored and nine steals on the season. He’s destroying left-handed pitching this season, but Pham has still clubbed seven homers and seven doubles against righties this season while he also brings that stolen base upside as well. He is one of my favorite plays on the slate after coming out of a slump with at least one hit in each of his last five games.
OF – Marcell Ozuna (STL) – $3,800 vs. SD
Ozuna has been hitting for a lot of power lately after a slow start to the season in that department. He’s homered and tripled over his last three games and has now homered three times over his last eight games. He’s recorded at least one hit in eight of his last nine games and has nine RBI over his last seven. He should hit in the cleanup spot tonight, an excellent run-producing spot for a guy that has been driving a lot of runs in lately.
OF – Mac Williamson (SF) – $3,600 vs. MIA
This guy is one of the sneakier plays on this slate. Williamson isn’t hitting righties for much power, but he’s clobbering left-handers for a huge .294 ISO and 1.097 OPS, although that’s in a small 17 at-bat sample. Interestingly, he only had 17 at-bats against lefties in at the big league level last season, but hit .353 with a homer. In 2016, he posted a strong .212 ISO across 66 at-bats against lefties. It’s becoming clear he can hit lefties well, so lock in Williamson at a quality price tonight.