Welcome to a fresh week of MLB DFS! With yesterday being Father’s Day, I took full advantage and spent the day with family, and therefore did not get a DraftKings MLB DFS Picks article out. That said, I am back at it today with high hopes of a profitable week ahead.
Let’s go ahead and dive into tonight’s nine-game main slate!
LAD @ CHC
P – Gerrit Cole (HOU) – $13,000 vs. TB
This slate has a couple of elite arms at the top so I am going to pay up for pitching and find some value stacks to complement these arms. Cole was taken a step back from his unsustainably white-hot start to the season, but he is still a must on this slate. Cole’s strikeout upside is monstrous thanks to his 36.7% strikeout clip on the season while his sparkling 2.40 ERA is supported by his 2.74 FIP. The Rays are coming in cold with a just a .275 wOBA over the last seven days, good for 25th in the league, so lock and load Cole in your lineup despite the high price.
P – Trevor Bauer (CLE) -$12,400
With the way Bauer is going right now it’s simply impossible to keep him out of your lineup in a very favorable home matchup against the White Sox. Bauer enters play tonight sporting a huge 31.1% strikeout rate on the season, but that number sits at a massive 39.8% in June. Over his last four starts, Bauer has punched out 48 hitters across 28.2 innings. He has struck out at least 11 in four straight starts and has six double-digit strikeout games across his 14 starts on the campaign. Again, lock and load Bauer despite the high price.
C – Buster Posey (SF) – $3,600 vs. MIA
There are a couple of value stacks that I have identified that I believe have some upside in their respective matchups beginning here with Posey. Posey and the Giants are at home against Marlins’ lefty Caleb Smith tonight, and although Smith has been solid this season, I think we can pick on him here with some low-priced Giants. Posey is having a nice season against southpaws that includes a powerful .205 ISO and a real nice .877 OPS. He has just four homers this season, but three of those have some against left-handed pitching.
1B – Hunter Dozier (KC) – $2,800 vs. TEX
Another stack I am going to suggest tonight is the Royals who take on Rangers’ right-hander Bartolo Colon tonight at Kauffman Stadium. While a couple of these Royals aren’t hitting for much power, Colon is giving up a ton of homers this season with a 2.29 HR/9 clip, so I can certainly see upside. Dozier sports a mediocre .136 ISO this season, but he’s homered twice over his last five games including one in yesterday’s game against Houston. He’s swatted as many has 15 homers in a season at Triple-A in 2016, so he does have some pop and it appears he will be hitting with confidence tonight with that recent power. Furthering that confidence could be his 2 for 2 with a double in his career against Colon.
2B – Kelby Tomlinson (SF) – $2,600 vs. MIA
When you pay up for two top arms you need to find some super value even if the numbers aren’t pretty. That’s the case with Tomlinson who doesn’t hit for much power, but the price is right and he will hit in our three-man Giants stack tonight. Tomlinson’s .057 ISO leaves plenty to be desired in the power department, but what we can hang our hat on here is his speed. He stole nine bases in part-time duties last season with the Giants, but stole 17 between Triple-A and the big leagues. He’s stolen as many as 49 in a minor league season (Double-A, 2014) so we know he can run and hopefully he will be utilizing his legs tonight.
3B – Mike Moustakas (KC) – $3,900 vs. TEX
Moustakas obviously brings a ton of power to the plate against right-handed pitching, so he’s a must in our Royals stack. He’s clobbering right-handed pitching to the tune of a .257 ISO and .884 OPS on the season after pulverizing righties for a .268 ISO and .862 OPS in 2017. He’s homered just once in June, but he has three hits including a double with four RBIs over his last three games. With the long ball issues of Colon, Moustakas is a real nice play at an attractive price tonight.
SS – Alcides Escobar (KC) – $2,700 vs. TEX
Escobar is a lot like Tomlinson in the sense that he doesn’t hit for much power, but if he can run into one against Colon tonight it would go a long way for the lineup. Escobar has played long ball three times this season and has three steals as well with a decent 29 runs scored despite hitting near the bottom of the lineup. His BABIP is almost 60 points below his career mark as well, which should mean more batted-ball luck moving forward.
OF – Mac Williamson (SF) – $3,300 vs. MIA
Williamson has clobbered left-handed pitching in a small sample this season. He owns a .304 average, .217 ISO and .929 OPS across 23 at-bats against southpaws this season, but also posted a .353 average and .882 OPS against them in 17 at-bats last season and posted a powerful .212 ISO against them in 66 at-bats in the 2016 season. Clearly, Williamson sees the ball real well against southpaws and I am hoping that continues as part of our three-man Giants stack tonight.
OF – Alex Gordon (KC) – $2,900 vs. TEX
Gordon has cooled off considerably after a nice start to his season, but he’s still hitting right-handed pitching fairly well despite a drop in power from previous seasons. Gordon is hitting .282 against right-handed pitching this season while all five of his doubles and home runs have come against righties. Gordon also runs from time to time with three steals on the year. Gordon is also projected to hit second in the order tonight and is 4 for 13 (.308) with two doubles and a homer in his career against Colon.
OF – Chris Young (LAA) – $2,600 vs. ARI
His matchup against Diamondbacks right-hander Zack Greinke isn’t an easy one, but Young is hitting for plenty of power this season and I think he holds excellent value upside at a tiny price tonight. Young enters play with a .202 overall ISO while he’s sporting a .208 ISO against right-handed pitching. He’s homered five times and stolen two bases on the season to boot. The price is certainly right and with Young hitting for home run power we could have a very low-owned homer on the horizon here.