It was a wonderful night for our DraftKings MLB DFS Picks as the bats did some serious damage and picked up a rough start from one of our starting pitchers.
Andrew Heaney didn’t have a great night at all as he was roughed up for five earned runs with four walks to boot across just 3.2 innings of work.
Our second starter fared better as Jon Lester hurled 5.2 frames of three-run ball to go along with six strikeouts. He landed in the win column thanks to some nice run support over surging right-hander Lucas Giolito.
Our four-man Pirates stack did some serious damage against Jordan Zimmermann and the Tigers’ bullpen, as expected. The stack was led by Brian Reynolds who homered as part of a three-hit night as he knocked in three runs and scored three himself. Starling Marte also homered – a two-run shot – while adding a walk and a pair of runs scored as well. Kevin Newman doubled and a score a run while Josh Bell disappointed with just one run scored. Still fantastic results here.
We also did well with our Dodgers four-man stack, led by Cody Bellinger who added to his MVP credentials with a two-run homer, a single, a walk and three runs scored. Justin Turner singled twice and scored a run while Russell Martin gave us some nice value with two singles of his own and an RBI. Unfortunately, Kike Hernandez delivered a zero out of the leadoff spot.
We’ll take those results and look to keep rolling on tonight’s 10-game main slate!
P – Jake Odorizzi (MIN) – $10,800 vs. KC
This slate is real light on pitching, but it doesn’t have to be a light slate in order to throw Jake Odorizzi into your lineup tonight. Odorizzi is surely among the top Cy Young candidates in the American League this season as he will enter play tonight sporting a 2.24 ERA, 2.99 FIP and a 4.27 xFIP. It doesn’t take much to know that home run regression should come for the right-hander as he is among the league’s most extreme fly-ball pitchers, but has allowed just 0.71 HR/9 thanks in large part to a small 6.6% home run per fly-ball rate, although that rate isn’t terribly lower than his 10.3% career mark. This will mark his second straight start against the Royals after he allowed four earned runs against them in six innings, in his last outing, but still managed to get the win. The league-best Twins offense is projected to score a slate-high six runs off of right-hander Glenn Sparkman and with Minnesota favored around -200 to win this one on the moneyline tonight, I see plenty of win upside to complement the 10.02 K/9 clip he brings into this one tonight.
P – Frankie Montas (OAK) – $10,000 vs. TB
There are a couple of good arms going toe-to-toe tonight in Oakland as the breakout star Frankie Montas takes on veteran right-hander Charlie Morton, but I am on the home side for this one tonight. I want to make note that the Rays travelled across the country from New York to Oakland after receiving a 12-1 drubbing at the hands of the Yankees in yesterday afternoon’s game, so right away I like the A’s to win this one given that fact. Also working in their favor is the fact Montas has spun a 2.85 ERA, 2.89 FIP and a 3.42 xFIP with a 9.66 K/9 over his 14 starts on the season. He’s managed to keep both walks and home runs in check as well with a 2.30 BB/9 clip to go along with an elite 0.66 HR/9 rate. Of course, the venue at O.Co Coliseum in Oakland works in the pitchers’ favor in this one while Montas owns a 2.40 FIP and an elevated 10.32 K/9 at home this season and a 0.26 HR/9 to boot. The A’s are favored to win at around -110 odds in this one tonight, so I’ll take the slight win upside along with the strikeout upside and put my trust in the young right-hander this evening.
C – Pedro Severino (BAL) – $3,800 vs. SEA
There are some notable options to roll with on offense tonight and I have identified some cost-efficient bats that includes a three-man Orioles stack against left-hander Wade Leblanc tonight in Seattle. Leblanc has pitched to an ugly 6.20 ERA, 5.28 FIP and 5.23 xFIP with a 2.00 HR/9 on the season, numbers that don’t get much prettier at home in the form of a 6.04 ERA, 6.01 FIP, 5.76 xFIP and a 2.13 HR/9. Enter Severino who has simply obliterated left-handed pitching in his breakout season with the Orioles. Entering play tonight, Severino has blasted southpaw pitching to the tune of a massive .321 ISO and 1.058 OPS to go along with a huge .432 wOBA and 175 wRC+. In other words, with park factors baked in, Severino’s bat has been 75% more productive than league average against left-handed pitchers this season. Manager Brandon Hyde has take notice as it appears Severino will be moved up into the lineup – possibly the three-hole – against a left-handed starter in Leblanc, something we should get used to moving forward.
1B – Rowdy Tellez (TOR) – $3,300 vs. LAA
Tellez’s bat has perked up of late and combined with some reverse splits he makes for an extremely valuable option on this slate tonight. The guy brings plenty of raw power to the table as he’s already hit 13 home runs on the season and posted a .224 ISO after hitting four homers with a .300 ISO in his first taste of the big leagues in just 23 games a season ago. Tellez was part of getting to left-hander Andrew Heaney in last night’s game as he blasted a three-run homer off of him in the second inning before connecting for another homer off of a right-handed Cam Bedrosian in the eighth inning. The two-homer game gave Tellez three long balls over his last four games and four homers over his last eight games. The good news for this matchup against left-hander Jose Suarez is the fact he is hitting .293 with a huge .276 ISO and .880 OPS against left-handers compared to a .192 average, .205 ISO and .647 OPS against righties. Furthermore, he owns an eye-popping .429 ISO and .954 OPS at home against lefties this season with a 143 wRC+, so sign me up all day for the value upside Tellez brings to the table tonight.
2B – Derek Dietrich (CIN) – $4,300 vs. MIL
Dietrich will be the lone one-off in this lineup as he isn’t going to be part of a stack but I believe he has big-time upside against right-hander Jimmy Nelson in one of the league’s very best venues for left-handed hitting home run hitters. I would think Dietrich qualifies as much as hitter as he’s smacked right-handed pitching to the tune of an unbelievable .410 ISO and 1.004 OPS on the season. Now, he’s done a ton of damage at home against right-handers at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati – a venue that also favors left-handed power bats – but I’m not about to argue with his huge .267 ISO and .828 OPS on the road against right-handers either. Given the similarity in venue, I like Dietrich’s upside a lot tonight. Nelson owns a 10.29 ERA, 5.31 FIP and 5.67 xFIP in two starts and seven innings since missing all of 2018 after shoulder surgery, so we certainly have a targetable arm with the Brewers’ right-hander tonight.
3B – Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) – $3,500 vs. LAA
We continue to get nice value with this Blue Jays stack tonight as Guerrero comes to us at a price that I believe is borderline laughable. Let’s keep in mind that the Angels’ Jose Suarez owns a 4.50 ERA< 5.11 FIP and 5.57 xFIP with a 1.69 HR/9 rate in three big league starts this season and posted a 4.78 FIP and 5.84 xFIP with a 4.30 BB/9 rate in four Triple-A starts (five appearances) earlier in the season. As a result, I believe these Blue Jays power bats have some wonderful value upside and Guerrero certainly fits that group. The 20-year-old’s numbers aren’t going to pop out at you given his extreme slow start after his promotion, but he owns a powerful .190 ISO against left-handed pitching this season and snapped a mini-slump with a double in last night’s loss. That said, his bat has been real good at home against lefties with a .208 ISO and .870 OPS against southpaws at the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre this season. I’d be surprised if the future superstar didn’t deliver some extra-base power in this favorable matchup tonight.
SS – Jonathan Villar (BAL) – $4,200 vs. SEA
Our three-man Orioles stack continues here with Villar who brings us some power and infuses some speed into this lineup as well. Look no further than his eight homers and 14 steals this season after hitting 14 homers and stealing 35 bases a season ago. He has reached double-digit home runs and at least 23 steals in each of the last three seasons, and while we won’t see the 19-homer, 62-steal Villar again, we have plenty to work with here. Now, the work against left-handed pitching hasn’t been very good this season with a .131 ISO and .592 OPS while only two of his 14 steals have some against lefties, but I still believe he can give us some production here. Three of his eight homers have come against a lefty as well as five of his 17 doubles. He’s been productive of late as well by going 3 for 8 with a homer and two runs scored over his last two games and flashes some speed with a pair of steals four games ago against the Red Sox. Villar still has plenty to bring to the table as part of this three-man Orioles stack tonight.
OF – Keon Broxton (BAL) – $3,100 vs. SEA
Completing our three-man Orioles stack is Broxton who has been at his very best this season against left-handed pitching. He’s entering this one tonight riding a modest three-game hit streak with a double and a pair of runs scored in that time, but Broxton has largely struggled over the last couple of weeks after a red-hot start to his Orioles tenure. Still, he’s been downright awful against right-handed pitching with a .155 average, .070 ISO and .403 OPS against the, but his bat perks up with a .239 average, .152 ISO and .691 OPS against left-handers. No, those aren’t numbers that stick out, however it’s also worth noting that Broxton has gone 2 for 6 with a home run in his career against Leblanc. Again, I had to be cost-conscious with my bats tonight but led by Severino, I believe the value with this three-man Orioles stack can give this lineup a big shot in the arm, especially from the dirt-cheap Broxton who has perked up a little bit over the last few outings.
OF – Randal Grichuk (TOR) – $3,400 vs. LAA
We will complete this lineup with a couple of Blue Jays outfielders beginning here with Grichuk who tends to hit both left-handers and right-handers for power. Grichuk’s .154 ISO against left-handers is lower than his .202 mark against righties, however his .740 OPS against lefties is higher than his .659 mark against righties. Grichuk’s 98 wRC+ mark is essentially league average against lefties, but also much better than his 72 mark against righties. I mean, this is a guy that posted a .234 ISO and .810 OPS against left-handed pitching last season, so we know there is room to improve on his numbers versus southpaws to this point this season. He’s not going to give us a terribly high floor with a bad .277 OBP on the season despite a half-decent walk rate of 7%, but we are here for the power and Grichuk has consistently delivered that with between 22 and 25 home runs in each of his last three seasons. He should be able to get to Suarez and the Angels bullpen for some production tonight.
OF – Teoscar Hernandez (TOR) – $3,500 vs. LAA
Hernandez is still listed as day-to-day with a wrist injury so keep an eye on the starting lineups closer to lock, but for now I will include him in this lineup in case he makes a return to the Blue Jays’ lineup tonight. Hernandez has had a real nice season in terms of power against left-handed pitching as he’s hit left-handers for a .220 ISO and .799 OPS on the season to go along with a strong .331 wOBA and 107 wRC+. This comes a season after Hernandez hit left-handers for a big .243 ISO and .744 OPS, so we know the guy can hit southpaws for power, and righties too before this season. A slow start to the season had Hernandez assigned to the minor leagues, but he tore left-handers apart to the tune of a eye-popping 1.627 OPS with three homers in just 18 at-bats versus southpaws at the Triple-A level. He’s similar to Grichuk in the sense that he doesn’t bring a high floor with a low batting average, but the power plays big-time against left-handed pitching at the Rogers Centre where he owns a .247 ISO and .836 OPS against left-handers this season.