Last night’s DraftKings MLB DFS Picks were a big success and I hope you were able to use these picks to rake in some profits!
Our top starter, Jon Gray, got the job done in spades as Gray hurled six innings of shutout baseball with six strikeouts in a winning effort on the road against the Giants.
Eduardo Rodriguez didn’t fare nearly as well, allowing five earned runs on six hits and two walks while striking out just four across 6.1 innings, getting a no-decision in the process. It’s also worth noting that fading the two most expensive pitchers on the slate in Lucas Giolito and Clayton Kershaw were the right moves as neither fared very well.
Our four-man Blue Jays stack turned into a three-man stack as Teoscar Hernandez didn’t get the start despite a lefty starter for the Yankees. That said, our three Jays players performed well as our group combined to go 8 for 15 with a homer, two doubles, four runs scored and two RBI as the Jays tallied eight runs against the Yankees despite taking a loss.
Our three-man Phillies brought plenty to the table as well as both Rhys Hoskins and Jean Segura hit home runs for us. For Hoskins, it was his lone hit of the night, but Segura had a big night that also included a double, two singles, two runs scored and two RBI. J.T. Realmuto chipped in a single, a walk and a pair of runs scored.
Finally, our one-off outfielder Jason Heyward delivered some excellent value with a late solo home run of his own after doubling earlier in the night.
It was nice to get back into profit territory as I’ll flip the page to tonight’s jam-packed 15-game slate!
*I’ll be fading the CWS @ BOS game due to weather concerns.
P – Max Scherzer (WAS) – $12,400 vs. MIA
There are a couple of elite right-handed arms on this slate in the form of Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole, but given the very small strikeout rate of Cole’s opponent – the Pirates – against right-handed pitching, I like Scherzer as the top arm on the slate. The right-hander is bound for yet another Cy Young if he can keep pitching the way he has of late. After breaking his nose and making a start the very next night – black eye and all – Scherzer hurled seven shutout innings with 10 strikeouts in a win over the Phillies. It’s the second consecutive game that Scherzer has gone seven innings and struck out 10 and the sixth straight start where he’s allowed two earned runs or less. Now, some may throw some caution to the wind here as Scherzer’s worst start of the season came against these Marlins on the road, but I mean, come on. He owns a 2.62 ERA, 2.21 FIP, 3.02 xFIP and a 12.36 K/9 against a team that ranks 29th with a .284 wOBA and 25th with a 24.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this year. Add in the pitcher-friendly venue and I have no reservations about rostering Mad Max tonight.
P – Madison Bumgarner (SF) – $8,200 vs. COL
The Giants and Rockies renew NL West hostilities tonight in San Francisco and I like Bumgarner’s upside for many reasons. Yes, I do see that he has not been the same dominant pitcher we have seen in the past this season as his numbers are pretty much worse across the board save for the strikeout numbers. Still, there’s plenty to like here. First, the Giants are listed at around -160 to win this game on the moneyline tonight thanks to spot starter Chi Chi Gonzalez and his 5.66 ERA from Triple-A this season starting for the Rockies. Gonzalez has not pitched in the big leagues since 2016. Also, Bumgarner owns a stout 3.07 ERA across a whopping 32 starts against the Rockies in his career, with a 1.94 career ERA against them at home. The Rockies have averaged 1.6 runs per game with three shutouts over their last eight games at Oracle Park in San Fran. Bumgarner enters this one sporting a 4.28 ERA, 4.22 FIP and 4.15 xFIP on the season with an 8.66 K/9, numbers that are very similar at home.
C – Francisco Mejia (SD) – $3,300 vs. BAL
The Padres and Orioles open up a series tonight in Baltimore in Manny Machado’s return to where it all started. Perhaps that story will hide the fact that this Orioles pitching staff is the worst in baseball. First, starter Jimmy Yacabonis enters this one with a 4.70 ERA, but also a 5.49 FIP and 6.10 xFIP, so the numbers there are bad. Also bad is the Orioles bullpen that ranks last in both ERA (6.34) and HR/9 allowed (1.91). As a result, I’ll fire up some Padres exposure in the form of a three-man stack, beginning here with Mejia. The smooth-swinging catcher has a small sample size at the big league level this season as he’s hitting just .200 on the season to this point, but he also posted a massive .381 ISO and 1.157 OPS in 18 Triple-A games prior to his promotion. He’s always been a very good offensive catcher in the minors and just needs time at the big league level to show his stuff. His bat is indeed heating up as he’s gone 5 for 15 (.333) with a homer, a double, two runs and two RBI over his last four starts. At this price and in this matchup, I’ll take it.
1B – Jesus Aguilar (MIL) – $3,500 vs. SEA
I will be rolling out a four-man Brewers stack this evening as they take on left-hander Marco Gonzales and a brutal Mariners bullpen. Gonzales has scuffled to a 4.38 ERA, 4.414 FIP and a 5.34 xFIP on the season while he owns a 4.52 FIP and 5.39 xFIP on the road on top of a 2.77 ERA, so some massive regression is coming on the road, and soon. The Mariners’ bullpen ranks 27th with a 5.24 ERA on the season, so we know we have a targetable pitching staff in this one. We also needed to be cost-conscious with our bats tonight, and this Brewers stack accomplishes that as well. Aguilar has disappointed this season after a huge breakout season a year ago, but I know there power is there, especially against lefties. His .164 ISO on the season versus lefties towers over his .094 mark against righties, and he actually owns a powerful .214 ISO at home against left-handed pitchers. He hit lefties for a huge .267 ISO last season and a .223 mark a season before. He’s not getting a ton of starts these days, but he’s gone 1 for 2 with a homer in a tiny sample versus Gonzales, so perhaps Aguilar makes his way into the starting lineup tonight.
2B – Hernan Perez (MIL) – $3,300 vs. SEA
Perez is perhaps the quietest lefty-masher on the slate. The guy brings solid power/speed upside to the table as he’s hit five homers and swiped four bases in part-time duty. He hit nine homers and had 11 steals last season, 14 homers and 13 steals in 2017 and finally 13 homers and a whopping 34 steals back in 2016. As a result, we know the power and stolen base potential is there tonight. Let’s also note that two of his four steals have come against a lefty, so he’s not afraid to run with a southpaw on the mound. Furthermore, the power potential takes a big leap in the right direction against lefties as he owns a .191 ISO and .757 OPS on the season versus left-handed pitching with a big .917 OPS and 142 wRC+ against left-handed pitching at home this season. Perez snapped a slump in his most recent start with a double and a run scored, so let’s see if he can deliver this lineup some value against a lefty and a very weak bullpen tonight.
3B – Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) – $3,200 vs. NYY
After filling in my pitching and stacks, I had a third base spot open and just $3,300 to fill it. At that point, I was shocked to see Guerrero Jr. at an affordable price against what will be a bullpen game for the New York Yankees. While that Yankees bullpen is good and the first couple months of the 20-year-old Guerrero’s career haven’t exactly gone to plan, let’s be real for a second here. The guy displayed historic power throughout his minor league career and massive walk and OBP numbers to boot. Sure, we want the power, but if he can draw some walks and score some runs, he will be giving this lineup value as well. I mean, he’s still hit seven home runs in only 188 at-bats on the season, which equates to more than 20 home runs over a full MLB season, not bad for a 20-year-old. Let’s also mention once more than he is coming off a three-hit night in which he doubled while he owns a huge .239 ISO and .940 OPS on the season against right-handed pitching which he will likely see a lot of tonight. The value upside here is large, to say the least.
SS – Orlando Arcia (MIL) – $3,500 vs. SEA
I am going to sneak more power and speed upside into this lineup in the form of Brewers shortstop Orlando Arcia. Arcia had a down 2018 season, but has rebounded here in 2019 as he’s already hit 10 home runs and should break his previous career high of 15 set in the 2017 season – his first full season in the bigs. Arcia also has four steals on the season and as many as 14 in a big league season. The 24-year-old has similar lefty/righty splits overall, however once again we have another players who hits well at home in the hitter-friendly confines of Miller Park in Milwaukee. Arcia has hit .357 with a .214 ISO and huge .971 OPS with a 151 wRC+ on the season against left-handed pitching at home. He’s feeling it at the plate right now with a pair of multi-hit games including a homer in each over his last three contests – both of which came at home. He’s going to hit at the tail end of the lineup, however I love the value we can get from the bottom of this Brewers lineup against this pitching staff tonight.
OF – Lorenzo Cain (MIL) – $4,200 vs. SEA
Cain is once again going to hit in the leadoff spot tonight, which means he will technically anchor this stack if the projected lineup at FantasyLabs holds true. If it does, we will have a 6-7-8-1 stack with the pitcher’s spot in the nine-hole. While Cain isn’t the most powerful bat on the team, his cross-category upside remains. He has four homers and 19 doubles on the season to go along with his 10 steals. Of those 10 steals, four have come against a left-handed pitcher. Of those four homers, three have come against a left-handed pitcher. Furthermore, the numbers at home against left-handed pitching are absolutely absurd. Against southpaw pitching at home, Cain owns a massive .364 ISO and .952 OPS to go along with a 130 wRC+. He’s making hard contact at a whopping 46.2% clip at home, which makes sense considering the success he’s had at this venue against lefties. He should see plenty of plate appearances tonight and with that home success against lefties, Cain makes for a wonderful cross-category play tonight.
OF – Wil Myers (SD) – $4,100 vs. BAL
Myers is yet another player in this lineup that gives us both power and speed upside and he takes on a horrible pitching staff in the process. Myers has hit 11 homers and swiped nine bases on the season after hitting 11 homers and stealing 13 bases in an injury-shortened 2018 season. He has as many as 30 homers and 28 steals in a season in his career despite playing the majority of it in the extreme pitcher-friendly confines of Petco Park in San Diego. Myers’ overall power numbers are superior against left-handed pitching, but let’s set the record straight. Eight of his 11 homers and nine of his 10 doubles have come against right-handed pitching, as well as eight of his nine steals. As a result, he’s going to manage just fine against the right-hander starter Jacob Yacabonis. In fact, he owns a powerful .204 ISO on the road against right-handed pitching where five of his 11 homers have come. He is simply a reasonably priced outfielder in a mouth-watering matchup tonight.
OF – Franmil Reyes (SD) – $4,200 vs. BAL
The dude simply has massive power. We saw it coming last season when he hit 16 home runs in just 285 big league plate appearances after he mashed another 16 in 250 plate appearances at the Triple-A level. He’s taken that power to a new level this time around as he’s smacked 20 long balls in just 256 plate appearances this season with a .288 ISO to boot. Furthermore, 18 of those 20 dingers have come against a right-handed pitcher and he owns a .299 ISO and .842 OPS with a 115 wRC+ on the season against right-handed pitchers as a result. He’s actually hit for more power at home against righties despite the pitcher-friendly Petco Park, however I’m not concerned with his .239 ISO on the road against right-handers, either. We aren’t going to get much speed out of him and the on-base percentage remains under .300 for the season, but we are here for one thing and one thing only: the power: Our three-man Padres stack has plenty of it tonight.