Plain and simlple, last night’s DraftKings MLB Picks were an outright disaster. We used Rick Porcello o quiet a mediocre Tampa Bay offense, however Porcello went just 3.2 innings while yielding four earned runs and stuck out just a pair. Things didn’t get much better with Mike Clevinger as the Astros got to the Indians’ right-hander for five earned runs on seven hits across just 5.1 innings. Clevinger struck out five in the process. Our bats did absolutely nothing to help our cause as the Brewers were shutout by Mets’ left-hander Steven Matz while the Rangers did very little to help our cause with Joey Gallo and Isiah Kiner-Falefa both doubling to give us our lone production from that group. That’s two nights in a row our picks have not been very good at all. MLB DFS has a lot of variance involved, and we will go through some cold stretches throughout the season. However, I am endlessly committed to research so we will look to turn things around on tonight’s large 14-game main slate!
STL @ PIT
P – Max Scherzer (WAS) – $14,000 vs. MIA
The price is massive, but Scherzer has one of, if not the best matchup you could ask for tonight as he takes the mound against the light-hitting Marlins in Miami. Scherzer is on some kind of roll this season as he’s already reached 100 strikeouts for the year and owns a massive 40.9% strikeout clip through 10 starts. He’s earned the win in seven of those 10 starts while he brings a sparkling 1.78 ERA and a 1.80 FIP into action tonight. The Marlins rank 29th with a .632 team OPS against right-handers while they also have a 26.6% strikeout rate against them as well. Combine those numbers with the pitcher-friendly confines at Marlins Park and you have yourself a fantastic matchup for arguably the world’s best pitcher tonight.
P – Ross Stripling (LAD) – $7,200 vs. SD
There is a wealth of top-tier arms on this slate, but I believe Stripling can give us top-tier production at a large discount considering his matchup and how well he’s pitched this season. This will be stripling’s fifth start of the season while he brings a tidy 2.08 ERA and a 2.33 FIP into action across those four starts and 11 relief appearances on the year. Stripling also sports a fantastic 27.8% strikeout rate and has punched out 16 batters over his last 11.1 innings of work. Stripling gets an extremely favorable home matchup against the lowly Padres who rank 28th with a team .646 OPS against right-handers while they own a huge 29.4% strikeout rate against righties as well. We are targeting two of the worst teams against right-handed pitching with our pitchers tonight.
C – Gary Sanchez (NYY) – $4,600 vs. LAA
Nothing against Angels’ lefty Andrew Heaney who has had a good year this season, but I am going to use some Yankees’ right-handed bats who have obliterated left-handed pitching this season. With the Yankees projected to score 5.6 runs and the wind blowing out to left field at 9-10 mph, I believe we have a nice opportunity here despite Heaney’s solid results to date. Sanchez is once again destroying left-handed pitching this season as evidenced by his massive .361 ISO and 1.078 OPS on the season against them, a year after posting a .266 ISO and .886 OPS against southpaws. He should be in for some production tonight.
1B – Tyler Austin (NYY) – $3,400 vs. LAA
As deep as the first base position is, I don’t mind paying down for the lefty-mashing Austin as part of a Yankees stack tonight. Austin enters play sporting a huge .341 ISO and .996 OPS on the season against southpaw pitching. Austin went 5 for 13 (.385) with two homers against lefties last season in the big leagues, so we have a real good idea that he boasts a ton of power against southpaws. We should also get him at solid ownership given the big slate and deep first base position.
2B – Rougned Odor (TEX) – $3,100 vs. KC
Our Rangers stack didn’t work out for us last night, but they are in a real nice matchup against southpaw Erik Skoglund at the hitter-friendly confines of Globe Life Park in Arlington tonight. This is a lefty on lefty matchup here, and Odor is off to a real slow start at the dish. However, as part of a four-man stack and given the cost-savings we need in this lineup, I will roll the dice with Odor at low ownership tonight. He hit a three-run homer the other night, his first of the season, so perhaps we will see more power from him moving forward. Also is the fact that Skoglund has surrendered a homer and double to lefties in just over six innings this season.
3B – Isiah Kiner-Falefa (TEX) – $3,500 vs. KC
We used Kiner-Falefa to no avail last night, but we are going to roll with the cost-effective infielder again tonight in a very favorable matchup. Skoglund has been brutal against right-handed bats this season as evidenced by his .833 OPS and .357 wOBA against on the season. He is also yielding 46.3% hard contact to righties as well. Kiner-Falefa owns a real solid .176 ISO and .778 OPS on the season against lefties while he is projected to hit in the valuable three-hole tonight which gives him nice cross-category upside as a result.
SS – Jurickson Profar (TEX) – $3,700 vs. KC
It was interesting to see Profar get the night off last night against the lefty Danny Duffy considering how poor Duffy has been against righties and the fact the switch-hitting Profar has mashed lefties this season. Profar enters tonight’s contest sporting a big-time .297 ISO and 1.004 OPS on the year against southpaws and is 4 for his last 11 with two doubles and a homer in that span. Profar should certainly be back in the starting lineup tonight and has the upside to produce in a big way against a struggling pitcher.
OF – Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) – $5,000 vs. LAA
Our three-man Yankees stack is complete here with Stanton who has just obliterated southpaw pitching this season. Stanton has more homers against lefties (7) than he does righties (4) despite almost 100 more at-bats against righties. Stanton’s eye-popping numbers against lefties this season include a .408 average, .531 ISO, 1.383 OPS, .564 wOBA and a 63.2% hard-hit rate. Combine those with the wind blowing out to left and a multi-homer night isn’t far-fetched for the slugging outfielder tonight.
OF – Ryan Rua (TEX) – $2,700 vs. KC
As mentioned, we need some value in this lineup and Rua provides that value as part of a four-man Rangers stack tonight. Rua plays almost strictly against left-handed pitching, and he owns a powerful .194 ISO against them on the season. His career OPS is almost 200 points higher against lefties than it is righties, and he could provide huge value to this lineup if he can play long ball against the struggling Skoglund at what should be tiny ownership this evening.
OF – Guillermo Heredia (SEA) – $2,800 vs. MIN
In terms of one-off players in this price range Heredia stands exceedingly taller than his peers. First, he is projected to hit in the two-hole for the Mariners tonight, an extremely valuable spot. Second, he is sporting some big-time reverse splits and some big numbers against right-handed pitching this season as he takes on Twins’ righty Fernando Romero tonight. Heredia enters play tonight sporting an extremely powerful .242 ISO and 1.076 OPS on the season against righties and is 4 for his last 10 with two doubles. He had excellent value upside tonight.