My DraftKings MLB DFs Picks from last night weren’t good enough to nab any profits while Jon Gray’s start was postponed due to weather.
Our four-man Tigers stack got the job done, however, at low ownership. The stack was led by Ronny Rodriguez who doubled and tripled as part of a three-hit night while he also scored a run and knocked in four. Miguel Cabrera had a hit, a run and an RBI while Nicholas Castellanos a hit, scored two runs and was also hit by a pitch. Jeimer Candelario posted a goose egg, but overall the stack ewas production at less than 10% owned in my GPPs.
The three Cubs we rostered were also at low ownership, but they didn’t produce much. Willson Contreras singled, Javier Baez singled and had an RBI while Kyle Schwarber singled and walked. Needed much more from this trio.
Our one off outfielder was the second-most productive position player in the lineup last night as Stephen Piscotty homered as part of a two-hit evening while he had two RBI as well.
Finally, Kyle Hendricks was good on the mound, hurling eight innings and didn’t allow an earned runs (two unearned runs) and struck out seven. Very nice outing here.
That said, we need to get back into profit territory so let’s do just that on tonight’s five-game main slate!
P – Mike Soroka (ATL) – $9,000 vs. ARI
Mike Soroka is just 21 years of age and he’s dominating big league hitters at the moment. He actually pitched 25.2 innings as a 20-year-old at the big league level last season and even started the 2018 season at the High-A level. He posted a 3.51 ERA in 2018 in the big leagues, but also posted a 2.85 FIP as well. This season, it’s been pure lights out stuff from Soroka as he enters this one sporting a 1.14 ERA, 2.25 FIP and a 3.03 xFIP across four starts and 23.2 frames. Of course, we want the strikeout upside as well and we are getting that with Soroka to the tune of a 10.27 K/9 rate. He posted a 9.674 K/9 rate across two Triple-A starts to open this season and also a 10.33 K/9 rate at Triple-A last season, so we know the strikeout stuff is there and should be here to stay even if a little regression is in store. He is coming off a start where he hurled seven shutouts innings with six strikeouts against the Marlins. The competition here is stiffer and the venue is hitter-friendly, but I’m simply looking for his lights-out stuff to remain in this one tonight.
P – Wade Miley (HOU) – $6,800 vs. TEX
Usually it’s mandatory for me to want at least a good chunk of strikeout upside for a pitcher to crack my lineup, and Miley doesn’t exactly bring that to the table as he sports a tiny 5.26 K/9 rate on the season after posting a 5.58 mark last season. He does own a improved 7.04 mark for his career, but he hasn’t delivered punchouts for a while now. Still, I think we can squeeze some production out of Miley in this matchup. The Rangers are a good offense overall, but they slip a bit against lefties as their .311 wOBA ranks 16th against lefties. However, the number that means more to be is the sky-high 27.8% strikeout rate they sport against southpaws, good for 26th in the league. In other words, his strikeout upside is higher tonight than it usually is. There’s also the fact that he is once again pitching well this season with a 3.20 ERA on the season and the Astros are favored around -160 to win this one on the moneyline tonight, so the win upside is strong on top of the increased strikeout upside.
C – Gary Sanchez (NYY) – $5,300 vs. SEA
In terms of pure home run upside, you would be hard-pressed to find someone on this slate with more of it than Sanchez as he takes on the Mariners and Mike Leake at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium this evening. Leake has certainly been susceptible to the long ball this season as he’s allowing home runs at a big 2.45 HR/9 clip while he’s allowed six homers over his last 17 innings of work. He also owns a 4.91 ERA and 5.86 FIP on the season, so we certainly have a targetable pitcher on our hands here. Enter Sanchez who is just destroying the baseball this season as he’s already homered 11 times, nine of which have come against right-handed pitching. Sanchez owns a massive .408 ISO and .991 OPS on the season against same-handed pitching, and he also owns a huge .417 ISO and 1.008 OPS at home this season. I am loving the upside with this play tonight.
1B – Ryon Healy (SEA) – $3,700 vs. NYY
Clearly I am thinking a high-scoring affair is in order tonight in New York as I also like the Seattle bats against Yankees left-hander J.A. Happ who has struggled this season, especially at home. Happ has actually pitched to a nice 1.96 ERA on the road this season and allowed less than one homer per nine innings at home, but he’s been touched up in a big way at home to the tune of a 7.65 ERA while he’s allowed a 3.15 HR/9 rate at home as well. This Mariners team has already hit a whopping 74 homers this season, by far the most in baseball, so some more long balls should be in store tonight. I am using Healy over the red-hot Edwin Encarnacion tonight as he’s cheaper, but he’s also destroyed Happ in his brief history against him. He’s only had five at-bats against Happ, but he has three hits in that time and all three of those hits were home runs. He’s hit left-handed pitching very well in his career and I’ll look for that to continue tonight.
2B – Gleyber Torres (NYY) – $4,400 vs. SEA
Next up in the Yankees stack is Torres who isn’t hitting for quite as much power this season as he did in his rookie season last year when he hit 24 homers on a .209 ISO. That said, he brings fantastic power/speed upside to the table as he’s homered five times and stolen three bases on this young season. Torres is sporting some reverse-splits this season as he has posted a .186 ISO and .783 OPS on the season against righties compared to a .083 ISO and .532 OPS against left-handed pitching. That wasn’t the case last season as he hammered lefties despite sporting some solid numbers against righties. Nonetheless, I’ll take the early reverse-splits this season and run with them. There’s also the stolen base aspect and of course those become more likely against right-handed pitchers. He will be part of a three-man stack in this lineup as he is confirmed to hit fifth in this lineup tonight.
3B – Miguel Andujar (NYY) – $3,800 vs. SEA
Completing this three-man stack is Andujar who is scuffling early in the season since coming off the injured list as he has yet to homer or even record an extra-base hit in 34 plate appearances across eight games. That said, this guy blasted 27 homers last season as a rookie and was the AL Rookie of the Year runner-up to Shohei Ohtani. The good news here with Andujar is the fact his splits were fairly even last season. The right-handed hitting third baseman hit lefties for a powerful .245 ISO and .822 OPS in 2018, but also posted a .225 ISO and .869 OPS against right-handed pitching as well. I also like the fact that he posted a huge .260 ISO and .913 OPS at home in his rookie season last year. This guy is going to go on a tear at some point as he begins to see the ball better after missing time, and at this price I would prefer that began tonight as the value upside is quite large against a pitcher struggling as much as Leake.
SS – Tim Beckham (SEA) – $3,800 vs. NYY
Another Mariner that is crushing lefties this season is Beckham who is enjoying quite the rebound year after a little bit of a down season last year in Baltimore. The former first overall pick from the 2008 draft, Beckham is feeling it against left-handed pitching to the tune of a .400 average, .267 ISO and 1.104 OPS on the young season. While it doesn’t mean much at all for this game tonight, we found big-time success with Beckham the last time we used him as he homered as part of a two-hit game with three RBI in a blowout win over the Rangers back on April 25th. There as a left-handed starter in that one as well, so there’s plenty of reason to feel good about this one too. Like his teammate Healy, Beckham has enjoyed success against Happ in the past, but in a larger sample size. He has gone 7 for 22 (.318) with two doubles and two homers to go along with a steal against the veteran southpaw. Sign me up all day here at this price.
OF – Mitch Haniger (SEA) – $4,500 vs. NYY
Continuing with our Mariners stack, Haniger is in a great matchup tonight as well. He has become one of the better all-round outfielders in baseball over the last couple of years and he’s mashing left-handed pitching again this season. He’s hitting .320 with a homer and three doubles on the season against lefties, good for a .240 ISO and 1.045 OPS to boot. Haniger actually brings some nice stole base upside to the table as he’s swiped four bases on the season, although all four have come against right-handed pitching. He stole eight bases a season ago on top of his 26 home runs and he also hit lefties for an .889 OPS in the 2018 season as well. There isn’t much power to speak of, but it’s a nice little icing on the cake to see Haniger is 2 for 5 (.400) in his career against Happ. The home run power is real, but he also handles the bat very well and should certainly be on base at least a couple of times in this one tonight.
OF – Domingo Santana (SEA) – $4,500 vs. NYY
Before I get into Santana, I want to make mention that you could also use Clint Frazier at this same price to form a four-man Yankees stack against Leake, something I will likely do in place of Haniger or Santana if I am using multiple entries tonight. Frazier is confirmed as the cleanup hitter for the Yankees tonight and he’s crushing right-handed pitching, so he makes for an excellent play as well. For now I will speak to Santana who is enjoying a wonderful start to his Mariners tenure after coming over from the Brewers. Entering this one tonight, Santana is mashing left-handed pitching to the tune of a massive .321 ISO and .915 OPS while he too has swiped four bases on the season, albeit all four coming against a right-handed pitcher. After homering just five times in 235 plate appearances last season, Santana has hit seven long balls in just 171 plate appearances this season. Nothing to dislike about this play tonight.
OF – Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) – $4,200 vs. ARI
I was left with $4,200 to work with after filling in my stacks in this lineup and Acuna is the clear choice in my opinion in that price range. He’s a do-it-all fantasy player as he brings plenty of power and speed upside to the table despite facing a right-handed in Luke Weaver who is enjoying a real good year to this point. After bursting onto the scene with 26 homers with 16 stolen bases in just 111 games last season, Acuna has hit seven home runs and stolen a pair of bases in the early going this season. The power numbers are better against lefties, as they were last season and will likely continue to be moving forward, but he hit right-handers to the tune of a huge .246 ISO and .890 OPS in his NL Rookie of the Year-winning 2018 season. After not homering since April 16th, Acuna homered in last night’s game, so perhaps he can go on a tear moving forward and get to Weaver for some more power in this one tonight.