The MLB postseason is a little slower in terms of DFS, however let’s get back into the game here with some DraftKings MLB DFS Picks tonight.
The showdown contest at DraftKings for tonight’s one-game slate has some unique rules, however we have to think outside the box a little bit in postseason DFS. Differentiation is key when there is only one game on a slate.
With that in mind, let’s get to the picks and see if we can get in on some postseason profits!
FLEX – Christian Yelich (MIL) – $10,600 vs. LAD
Yelich is going to see some ownership tonight, but obviously for good reason. He not only destroyed right-handed pitching in what should totally be an MVP season, but Yelich also touched up lefties to the tune of a .250 ISO and .983 OPS. He actually outperformed in the batting average department against lefties as he hit .337 against them compared to a still-MVP-type .321 mark against righties. I also like the double reverse-splits angle to this one as well as his Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw allowed a higher slugging percentage to left-handed batters (.412) than he did righties (.353). Finally, Yelich has also enjoyed plenty of success against Kershaw in their history against one another as he has gone 9 for 17 (.529) with two homers and a double against the superstar southpaw. He’s the best bat in this series and I don’t think we can afford to fade him in tonight’s Game 1.
FLEX – Jesus Aguilar (MIL) – $7,600 vs. LAD
Aguilar pounded both righties and lefties in his breakout season, but he has slightly better numbers against lefties for the season. He clubbed southpaws for a whopping .267 ISO and .929 OPS on the season while that ISO trended up against left at home to a .278 mark in the hitter-friendly confines of Miller Park in Milwaukee. Aguilar went 0 for 6 in the first two games of the divisional series against the Rockies, however he clubbed a homer in the Brewers’ series-clinching Game 3 victory at Coors Field in Colorado. I like the fact he’s entering tonight’s game on a high note and with the way he has hit lefties this season another longball is certainly possible, even against one of the game’s best in Kershaw.
FLEX – Ryan Braun (MIL) – $7,900 vs. LAD
Braun may not be the same bat he once was, however he still clobbers left-handed pitching and he is projected to hit in a prime spot in the order in the three-hole tonight. He hit lefties for a huge .277 ISO and .863 OPS in the regular season while nine of his 20 home runs came against southpaw pitching. He also enjoyed a huge month of September prior to the postseason as he produced a massive .324 ISO and .963 OPS for the month. He also had a big divisional series as he hit .385, albeit with zero extra-base hits. That said, he’s a big-time playoff performer with a career .380 average and 1.007 OPS across 77 postseason plate appearances. I like his spot in the lineup right behind the on-base machine Yelich, so look for some RBI opportunities to come Braun’s way tonight.
FLEX – Josh Hader (MIL) – $3,400 vs. LAD
Hader is a little bit of a differentiation tactic here, but I love the upside at this price. A strikeout for a reliever is worth three points in this showdown contest, and an inning pitched is worth 3.9 points. Therefore, if Hader throws an inning and notches, say, two strikeouts, he notches 9.9 points which is essentially the equivalent of a player hitting a home run, which is worth 10 points. Furthermore, we Hader often pitches two innings in an outing. In fact, 8 of his final 17 regular season outings were at least two innings, with one 2.2-inning effort mixed in. His 15.82 K/9 was the second-highest mark in baseball among pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched. If he pitches two innings and notches something like four or five strikeouts, Hader could be the top-scoring player on the slate. There’s also a chance he doesn’t pitch at all, but I will take the upside at this price.
FLEX – Max Muncy (LAD) – $10,100 vs. MIL
We are going to roster a couple Dodgers as well as we can’t exceed four layers on the same team tonight, and Muncy is a nice bet with a huge ceiling. Like Aguilar, Muncy handled both lefties and righties with plenty of power, and although he hit righties better, he still mashed southpaws for a huge .275 ISO and .891 OPS as he gets set to take on left-hander Gio Gonzalez this evening. Muncy even posted a .929 OPS at Miller Park in Milwaukee this season, although we could have expected that given the monster breakout season the former Oakland Athletic enjoyed. He homered twice in the Dodgers’ divisional series win over the Braves, so I’ll look for him to stay hot tonight in Milwaukee.
FLEX – Justin Turner (LAD) – $8,800 vs. MIL
Turner is just 2 for 20 in his career against Gio Gonzalez, but the guy just destroys lefties so I think he can turn things around tonight in Milwaukee. The Dodgers’ third baseman clobbered southpaws again this season to the tune of a .244 ISO and 1.028 OPS in the regular season. Turner also enjoyed a nice divisional series against the Braves as he hit .357 with a double while he’s always been a clutch playoff hitter with a career .325 average and 1.007 OPS this time of the year. Turner has also been good at Miller Park in Milwaukee in his career with a .306 average and .792 OPS at this venue. I’ll take his bat over 99% of ball players against left-handed pitching, so let’s look for the Muncy/Turner mini-stack to do some damage against Gio Gonzalez tonight.