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DraftKings MLB DFS Picks – October 16th

Last night’s DraftKings MLB DFS Picks did not get the job done whatsoever.

The Dodgers failed to score a single run against Jhoulys Chacin and the Brewers bullpen last night, so obviously our Dodgers bats did not perform up to the par.

Walker Buehler wasn’t terrible as he struck out eight over seven innings, but he also allowed four earned runs in his outing, and given the price we paid, he didn’t deliver value.

Lastly, our two relievers in Josh Hader and Kenley Jansen didn’t pan out as Jansen didn’t get into the game with the Dodgers trailing while Hader went just one inning with the Brewers sporting a four-run lead.

Let’s certainly look to turn things around on tonight’s classic-style slate that includes the Red Sox and Astros as the series shifts to Houston as well as Game 4 between the Brewers and Dodgers from L.A.

*This lineup is aimed for GPPs*

P – Rich Hill (LAD) – $8,300 vs. MIL

Call me crazy, but Hill is the only pitcher who I believe will last more than five innings to start tonight, so I like his win upside more than I do with every other pitcher on this slate, especially with the Dodgers being the heaviest favorites on the slate at -148. Hill went just 4.2 innings in his NLDS start against the Braves, but lasted at least five innings in his 22 of his 24 regular season starts including going seven in his last two starts of the regular season. His strikeout upside is also attractive as Hill punched out opposing hitters at an excellent 27.4% clip in the regular season while he pitched to a 3.66 ERA. I think the Dodgers can even up the series tonight, and I’m looking for Hill to lock down a win with some strikeouts to boot.

P – Joe Kelly (BOS) – $4,000 vs. HOU

Joe Kelly is a reliever and the Red Sox are underdogs in this one, so this is where we get the GPP status and also some serious differentiation going, something that is key to winning GPPs on these tiny postseason slates. I wanted to nab a reliever that has the ability to pitch multiple innings, and as I mentioned, I don’t expect Eovaldi to last too long tonight, so I think the Red Sox bullpen will see 4-5 innings of work, and I’m hoping two come from Kelly. He pitched just shy of two innings with 1.2 frames in Game 1 while unfortunately taking the loss thanks to an unearned run surrendered. The flame-thrower struck out hitters at a solid 23.9% clip in the regular season, and the hope here is he can enter the game, pitch two innings, notch two or three strikeouts and get a win for the Red Sox as underdogs. Gotta like playoff GPP lineups.

C – Austin Barnes (LAD) – $3,300 vs. MIL

Barnes might not face Brewers southpaw Gio Gonzalez as he is going to hit at the bottom of the lineup and Gonzalez went just two innings in his last start, but given the series Yasmani Grandal has had on both sides of the ball, I bet Barnes gets the majority of this game behind the plate. It’s tough to gauge his ownership tonight, but Barnes will form a wrap-around stack tonight with our other three Dodgers we will roster, and the fact he had a very tough year at the plate should see him with some low ownership. He has an RBI in just three at-bats for the series, and some low-cost production from the backstop would give this lineup a big shot in the arm.

1B – Steve Pearce (BOS) – $4,200 vs. HOU

There’s a chance Pearce only gets something like two at-bats against the lefty sta5rter Dallas Keuchel from the Astros tonight, but I am still going to roll with him given how badly he destroyed left-handed pitching this season. Pearce posted a monstrous .255 ISO and .959 OPS on the campaign against southpaws and went 4 for 12 with a pair of walks and a pair of RBI in the Red Sox ALDS win over the Yankees. He is also part of a Red Sox stack tonight and I am loving his matchup against a southpaw this evening.

2B – Hernan Perez (MIL) – $3,700 vs. LAD

Yes, I am rostering a hitter against my pitcher, but I believe this will be a low-owned bat and what I am looking for here is a one-off solo home run as part of the only damage against Hill tonight. Perez is a solid candidate for a blast tonight as he hit lefties well to the tune of a .202 ISO and .783 OPS while six of his nine homers in the regular season were against lefties in part-time duty. Perez also brings some stolen base upside to the table if he gets on as he swiped 11 bases in only 316 at-bats on the year, five of which came against southpaws. This is the type of differentiation tactic we need to deploy this time of the year.

3B – Justin Turner (LAD) – $4,800 vs. MIL

Given Turner’s numbers against lefties and his clutch bat in the postseason, I am loving this play tonight. Turner hit southpaws for a .336 average, .244 ISO and 1.028 OPS in the regular season this year. His power increased slightly to a .262 ISO at home against lefties this season. Turner is also a career .317 hitter with a .981 OPS in the playoffs. His clutch three-run blast late in Game 2 sent the Dodgers to their lone victory of the series so far and I will look for more power from Turner tonight, especially against the lefty Gonzalez to start.

SS – Manny Machado (LAD) – $5,000 vs. MIL

Machado has been hitting it very well for quite some time as he ended the regular season very strong before hitting two home runs and doubling in the Dodgers’ NLDS series against the Braves. Machado has homered and doubled so far in this series while going 5 for 11 (.455) at the plate with a monstrous 1.318 OPS to boot. He’s been the Dodgers’ best bat in this postseason for sure and I also like the fact that he can hit both lefties and righties for power as evidenced by his fairly even splits on the season. It also doesn’t hurt that Manny is 7 for 19 (.368) with a homer and a double in his career against Gonzalez. With a hint of stolen base upside as well, Machado makes for a high-ceiling play tonight.

OF – Chris Taylor (LAD) – $4,800 vs. MIL

Taylor is projected to hit in the leadoff spot tonight which gives him solid cross-category upside with his power/speed combination. Like Machado, Taylor is sporting a hot bat as he has gone 5 for 10 in this series with a triple. He too hit lefties and righties fairly evenly in the regular season while he brings some stolen base upside to the table with nine swipes on the season. Our of the leadoff spot, there’s not much to dislike about Taylor as he completes, but technically leads off, our Dodgers stack tonight.

OF – Mookie Betts (BOS) – $5,800 vs. HOU

Betts is costing us a pretty penny but with the Joe Kelly GPP play above we have some coin to work with tonight. He has enjoyed plenty of career success against Keuchel in their history against one another as he’s gone 4 for 9 (.444) against him, with all four hits of the extra-base variety with a homer and three doubles against the former Cy Young winner. Betts cranked lefties for a monumental .368 ISO and 1.207 OPS on the season. Not sure there’s a whole lot else to say except that he’s as close to a must-have as any player on this slate.

OF – J.D. Martinez (BOS) – $5,400 vs. HOU

Martinez actually sported some reverse-splits this season, but I don’t think we can argue with his .244 ISO and .966 OPS against southpaws from the regular season. Martinez has been held hitless in seven at-bats this series, but he hit .357 with a homer and a .992 OPS in the Red Sox ALDS series against New York. He has four homers and an .830 OPS across 48 career postseason at-bats, so we know he can produce this time of the year and he’s also a guy you won’t hold down for long. I have high hopes for this Red Sox stack despite facing a solid lefty in Keuchel.

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