There is just one game on tonight’s MLB slate, so we are back to break down some showdown-style picks for tonight’s Game 7 winner take all tilt between the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers.
It’s going to be a fun one, but even better if we are able to hit some DFS picks along the way.
Let’s dive into the picks and see if we can make it a profitable Saturday night!
FLEX – Walker Buehler (LAD) – $16,000 vs. MIL
Boy is Buehler pitching in some big games this season as we was given the ball to decide the NL West division in game 163 while he gets the nod from Dave Roberts to start tonight’s Game 7 matchup at Miller Park in Milwaukee. Buehler hasn’t been great in the postseason as he’s yielded nine runs in 12.2 innings of work so far, however he went seven innings and struck out eight in his only other start this series. He allowed four earned and took the loss in the start, but he went deep and provided that strikeout upside that we will look for again in this matchup. His leash isn’t going to be too long given the importance of the game, however innings pitched are worth something here and I think that Buehler can go at least six innings tonight despite the tough road atmosphere and high-stress pitches. I’m looking for the rookie to pitch L.A. into its second consecutive World Series appearance.
FLEX – Max Muncy (LAD) – $10,000 vs. MIL
Jhoulys Chacin has been good in these playoffs, and he appears to be getting the ball for the start tonight as per MLB.com. That said, there’s too much to like about Muncy and I think some left-handed bats of the Dodgers can take advantage of the hitter-friendly confines of Miller Park, especially for lefties. Muncy pounded right-handed pitching to the tune of a massive .334 ISO and 1.001 OPS. He’s hitting just .172 for the postseason, but as usual, Munch is getting on base a ton at a .369 clip. We also aren’t here for his batting average as Muncy has still played long ball twice in 10 playoff games so far. He can hit home runs, and he can also get on base and score some runs too. I like the cross-category upside here.
FLEX – Joc Pederson (LAD) – $8,600 vs. MIL
Pederson should be taking over leadoff duties as per usual against a right-handed pitcher tonight, and I think this venue is perfect for the righty-masher. After all, Pederson clobbered right-handed pitching to the tune of an extremely powerful .295 ISO and .893 OPS in the regular season. After a huge postseason last year, Pederson owns a career .847 OPS this time of the year, and he’s got a solid .768 mark in this series. If a left-handed pitcher comes in, it likely means that Pederson is coming out as he doesn’t hit lefties well and he hasn’t played a game start to finish in this series. Still, he should get a couple at-bats against Chacin, so I am looking for some of that power to show up in the form of his second home run of these playoffs.
FLEX – Cody Bellinger (LAD) – $7,800 vs. MIL
I think Bellinger has a fairly attractive price for a bat with plenty of pop and plenty of pop despite a largely unproductive NLCS. Bellinger did double in Game 5 and he’s also enjoyed success in the past against the right-hander Chacin. Bellinger has gone 5 for 14 (.357) with two homers and a triple against the veteran. Bellinger smacked right-handers for a .240 ISO and .880 OPS in the regular season, but I’m liking the fact that he upped those numbers to a huge .295 ISO and 1.021 OPS on the road against right-handers. This dude’s swing is perfect for this ball park as Miller Park is one of the more susceptible venues in the big leagues for home runs to right field. The pull-happy Bellinger is playing in an extremely favorable venue, and combined with his numbers against Chacin, I’m liking his upside.
FLEX – Kenley Jansen (LAD) – $3,200 vs. MIL
The job is fairly simple for Jansen tonight, and that is to close the game without giving a run to go with a couple strikeouts if given the opportunity. It would certainly be nice to see Buehler to 6+ innings and leave with a lead that Jansen can close down for L.A. He’s endured some issues with the home run ball this season, but Jansen has not allowed an earned run in 5.1 postseason innings so far with three saves in five appearances. He’s also struck out seven in the those 5.1 frames. Furthermore, Jansen has already made an appearance longer than one inning in this series, so maybe we can ask for a two-inning, or six-out save which would be fantastic. He is a very cheap option but he also fits nicely into the game plan here.
FLEX – Josh Hader (MIL) – $4,000 vs. LAD
We do need to get at least one Brewer into this lineup, and Hader’s my man. With a berth to the World Series on the line, I would not be surprised to see Hader log two innings at minimum tonight and quite possibly three. They are certainly going to lean heavily on him at some point tonight. We rostered Hader in Game 1 when he pitched three innings of relief and racked up 25 fantasy points for us. I’m simply looking for a similar effort here. He had the second-highest strikeout rate in baseball in the regular season and Hader has struck out 12 in seven postseason innings. He’s got plenty of upside at a small priced as evidenced by that Game 1 outing.