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DraftKings MLB DFS Picks – October 4th

Welcome to the first postseason version of our DraftKings MLB DFS Picks!

We have both NLDS games tonight on this slate, and as is normally the case with postseason slates, we have to do a little bit of unconventional, differentiating things in order to notch ourselves some profits.

That said, October baseball is the best baseball, so let’s get right into the picks and get our postseason started on the right note!

P – Hyun-Jin Ryu (LAD) – $8,900 vs. ATL

The Dodgers enter their series against the Braves as heavy favorites, and that is certainly the case in Game 1 as Ryu and the Dodgers enter this one as heavy -183 favorites at the moment, which makes a lot of sense considering how dominant Ryu has been since coming back from injury in mid-August. He’s actually been excellent this whole season with a 1.97 ERA on the campaign, albeit across only 15 starts as he missed most of the summer due to injury. Since coming back, Ryu has pitched to a 1.88 ERA across nine starts, and he’s allowed just one earned runs combined over his last three starts, spanning 19 innings to go along with 16 strikeouts. I’ll take his recency and win upside all day long at this price.

P – Antonio Senzatela (COL) – $5,200 vs. MIL

Rostering Senzatela comes with plenty of risk as he takes on a powerful Brewers offense, however he’s been solid on the road this season and even better in September, so I will look to extract some value from the right-hander tonight. His home ERA at the extreme hitter-friendly Coors Field in Colorado is 4.83, however that number drops to 4.01 on the road while Senzatela has also pitched to a 3.93 FIP on the road as well. In the month of September, he pitched to a real tidy 3.25 ERA and put together a 3.90 ERA in the second half of the season. He doesn’t have big strikeout upside with a K-rate of just 17.7% on the year, however that mark was 19.7% in his excellent month of September, giving us a little more value upside with the right-hander.

C – Yasmani Grandal (LAD) – $3,700 vs. ATL

The Dodgers are going to see some ownership tonight as the most powerful offense on the slate, however we have differentiation happening at the end of the lineup so I don’t mind the ownership level with this four-man stack. The switch-hitting Grandal has posted much better power numbers against right-handed pitching this season as he owns a .240 ISO and .844 OPS against right-handed pitching compared to a still-solid .178 ISO and .727 OPS on the season against southpaws. What I like best about Grandal tonight is he has destroyed right-handers at home to the tune of an increased .250 ISO and .891 OPS. Lastly, Grandal is 2 for 6 with two homers in his career against right-hander Mike Foltynewicz. Huge value upside at this price.

1B – Max Muncy (LAD) – $5,200 vs. ATL

Muncy has been the biggest surprise bat in the big leagues this season as he owns huge power potential regardless of who is standing on the mound. In terms of his numbers against right-handers, Muncy has produced a .334 ISO and 1.001 OPS on the season. Like Grandal, Muncy’s power numbers increase at home as he put together a .368 ISO and 1.038 OPS against right-hander at Dodger Stadium. Muncy is coming off a month of September in which he produced a .279 ISO and 1.009 OPS, so there’s not much reason to dislike the breakout star tonight.

2B – DJ LeMahieu (COL) – $4,100 vs. MIL

The Rockies are going to face a very tough Brewers bullpen throughout tonight’s Game 1 in Milwaukee, however Colorado has been a dynamite offense lately so I will roll out a three-man stack against opener Brandon Woodruff and the Brewers’ ‘pen tonight. LeMahieu powered up this season with a career-high 15 home runs while he also swiped a decent six bases in an injury-shortened year, so there is some power/speed upside to speak of here. That said, he will be more of a table-setter for this stack as he scored 90 runs this season and has some big bats behind him. If he can get on base a couple times and score a couple of runs tonight, I will take that to be sure.

3B – Nolan Arenado (COL) – $5,100 vs. MIL

Arenado is indeed one of those big bats that will hit behind LeMahieu. Arenado does his best work against left-handed pitching, but there’s not much reason to scoff at his numbers against right-hander either. For the season against righties, Arenado has posted a .216 ISO and .822 OPS. Prior to the NL Wild Card game against the Cubs, Arenado hit four home runs over his previous three games, and he doubled in three straight games before that. He’s expensive and he doesn’t do as much damage against righties, but Arenado needs to be a part of this high-ceiling three-man stack tonight.

SS – Trevor Story (COL) – $5,300 vs. MIL

Story has been on a tear lately as he completes our Rockies stack tonight. His power/speed upside rivals the best on the slate as he clubbed 37 homers this season while he also stole 27 bases as well. Like Arenado, we would prefer Story against a left-handed pitching, but he also clobbered righties for a very powerful .244 ISO and .852 OPS on the season while a whopping 23 of his 27 steals this season came against a right-handed pitcher. He’s posted a .466 ISO and 1.109 OPS in regular season games between September and the game 163 in October, so I am looking for him to stay hot tonight.

OF – Joc Pederson (LAD) – $4,600 vs. ATL

Pederson is going to hit in that valueable leadoff spot tonight for the Dodgers against the right-hander Mike Foltynewicz, giving him excellent upside right off the get go. We also have to factor in that Pederson does essentially all of his damage against right-handed pitching as he posted a massive .295 ISO and .893 OPS on the season against right-handers. He also posted an unworldly .343 ISO and .961 OPS in the months of September and October, so the power upside is quite substantial despite facing a real good right-hander tonight.

OF – Cody Bellinger (LAD) – $4,300 vs. ATL

Bellinger may have regressed some after a huge rookie season, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t sport attractive power potential to conclude our four-man Dodgers stack tonight. In fact, Bellinger still smashed right-handed pitching to the tune of a .240 ISO and .880 OPS. Not only does Bellinger own big power potential, but he also offers some stolen base upside with 14 steals on the season, nine of which came against righties. After homering in game 163, Bellinger could very well stay hot in this one tonight.

OF – Nick Markakis (ATL) – $3,500 vs. LAD

While we are rostering Ryu against Markakis, postseason DFS sometimes calls for some unconventional tactics and I think we can get Markakis at low ownership tonight. The hope here is that the veteran can perhaps hit a solo home run against Ryu to account for all of the Braves’ damage tonight. He did hit four homers and 17 doubles against lefties this season and posted a quality .765 OPS against them as well. He’s slumping entering the postseason, another factor that will lower his ownership. Simply put, he’s a dart throw here in the hopes he can give this lineup a huge shot in the arm with some low-owned power.

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