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DraftKings MLB DFS Picks – September 12th

Last night’s DraftKings MLB DFS Picks were fairly solid as we extracted value from some low-owned, low-cost players in our lineup, but unfortunately our main stack didn’t get the job done.

Our top pitcher Jacob deGrom was once again stellar as he pitched seven innings of two-run ball to go along with nine strikeouts against the visiting Marlins. As per usual, the Mets were unable to support their ace as they scored just one run while he was in the game and they eventually fell 5-3 as the Mets’ bullpen fell apart.

We got fantastic value out of our second pitcher Brad Keller at a very cheap $5,700 price tag. Keller hurled seven innings of one-run ball to go along with six strikeouts while earning his eighth win of the season. That’s more than I asked for from the right-hander and we will gladly take it.

Our main stack of the Yankees did not pull through. Four of the five runs the Yankees scored came from a Didi Gregorius grand slam, who we did not roster. Greg Bird also did not get the start in this one.

Our Twins stack did produce excellent value, however. Jorge Polanco and Jake Cave combined to go 5 for 10 with a double, three RBI, two runs scored and a stolen base. Logan Forsythe chipped in a walk and a run scored as well.

Finally, our one-off outfielder Hernan Perez did not get the start despite his nice power numbers against lefties. However, he did pinch hit and hit an infield single, but obviously we wish he got the starting nod here.

Let’s go ahead and move on and tackle tonight’s eight-game main slate!

P – Aaron Nola (PHI) – $11,200 vs. WAS

We are going to pay up for pitching tonight and find some low-owned, value stacks to complement them. We kick off the lineup with Nola who looks to bolster his Cy Young case tonight at home against the Nationals. If your memory serves you well, you’ll recall that Nola has dominated the Nationals twice over his last four starts, pitching a combined 15 innings while allowing just a single earned run to go along with 17 strikeouts. Nola is also right where he wants to be tonight, which is at home. He owns a sparkling 2.21 ERA at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia while his strikeout rate goes from 23.5% on the road to a whopping 29.8% mark at home. He’s my top arm of the slate.

P – David Price (BOS) – $9,700 vs. TOR

Price is up against one of his former clubs tonight as the Blue Jays visit Fenway Park in Boston. Price has been on a roll lately, allowing two earned runs or less in three of his last five starts with two shutout efforts in that span. Price also has two 10-strikeout performances over that stretch including his most recent outing where he hurled 6.1 frames of two-run ball with those 10 punchouts against a difficult Astros offense. Like Nola, Price has been better at home with a 3.08 ERA at Fenway compared to a 4.14 mark on the road. He posted a 2.10 ERA in August has that excellent outing against Houston as his lone September start, so I have no problem paying up for the former Cy Young winner tonight.

C – Francisco Arcia (LAA) – $3,500 vs. TEX

The Angels are going to be one of two four-man stacks in this one and the players we are going to use will be mostly very low owned. Los Angeles takes on right-hander Yovani Gallardo tonight, a pitcher who has a road ERA of 7.67 this season while yielding a huge .929 OPS on the road as well. Enter Arcia who has some pop against right-handed pitching as he’s put together a rock-solid .185 ISO against righties in 65 at-bats while all three of his homers and all three of his doubles have come against righties. I will take his pop at minuscule ownership tonight at the tail end of this four-man stack.

1B – Jose Miguel Fernandez (LAA) – $3,000 vs. TEX

Like Arcia, the low-owned Fernandez brings some pop to the dish tonight against the struggling Gallardo. Fernandez hit his first big league homer in last night’s win over the Rangers, which also accounted for all of the Angels’ offense. In 63 at-bats against righties this season, the lefty-swinging Fernandez has hit .302 while his lone homer and all four of his doubles have come against righties. What is even more encouraging is the fact he hit 16 homers and produced a big-time .985 OPS against righties at Triple-A this season prior to his big league promotion. He could provide big value with some more power tonight coming off his first big league long ball.

2B – Logan Forsythe (MIN) – $2,800 vs. NYY

The Twins could be in tough tonight against Yankees right-hander Luis Severino, however a closer look shows Severino has struggled on the road. First, his 4.16 road ERA is nothing special. Second, he’s coming off a road start in Oakland where he allowed five earned runs and has allowed at least four earned runs in four of his last seven road starts. I don’t like the fact Forsythe hasn’t hit for hardly any power this season, but he’s 3 for 10 with a homer and a double against Severino and has gotten on base at a big .378 clip since coming to Minnesota at the trade deadline, so let’s hope he can get on base and at least score some runs to eclipse value as part of this four-man stack tonight.

3B – Taylor Ward (LAA) – $3,400 vs. TEX

There’s a couple things I like about Ward’s matchup with Gallardo tonight. First, Gallardo is actually a reverse-splits pitcher as he’s yielded a massive 1.025 OPS to right-handed hitters like Ward on the road this season. While he’s done his big league damage against lefties so far, Ward crafted a big .959 OPS against righties at Triple-A prior to his big league call up. He also stole 18 bases between Double-A and Triple-A this season, and while he’s yet to steal one in the big leagues, we can safely say he does have some potential in this area as well against the right-hander Gallardo.

SS – Andrelton Simmons (LAA) – $4,400 vs. TEX

Simmons will see some ownership in this stack tonight, and for good reason. He brings real solid power/speed upside to the table tonight as he’s clubbed 11 homers and stolen nine bases on the season. He’s also knocked 23 doubles on the campaign, 19 of which have come against righties. While more of his home run power has come against lefties, Simmons has swiped seven of his nine bases this season against right-handers. Finally, he’s knocked Gallardo around in their history against one another as he’s gone 7 for 12 with a homer against the veteran. Given Gallardo’s reverse-splits, I am liking Simmons a lot in this matchup.

OF – Eddie Rosario (MIN) – $4,500 vs. NYY

Rosario will technically lead off our four-man Twins stack tonight as he has clobbered right-handed pitching once again this season. Rosario has hit righties for a powerful .220 ISO on the campaign to go along with an .857 OPS and .360 wOBA. I also like the fact Rosario brings a little bit of stolen base upside to the table tonight as he’s swiped eight bags on the season. He owns a .250 ISO for the month of September so far and he’s also hit for an elevated .257 ISO and .871 OPS at home against righties, so there’s not much hesitation on my part to include him in this low-owned stack.

OF – Jake Cave (MIN) – $3,700 vs. NYY

Cave provided us excellent value in last night’s contest and I will look for more of the same tonight for a rookie that has handled himself very well against right-handed pitching. On the season, Cave owns a .211 ISO and .819 OPS against righties while those numbers take a big jump to an extremely powerful .253 ISO and huge .962 OPS at home against righties. He has a history of power throughout the minor leagues and he’s showing he can do so at the big league level, so I will continue to look his way for some cheap, low-owned pop again tonight.

OF – Max Kepler (MIN) – $3,700 vs. NYY

Kepler has shown plenty of pop in his bat since he entered the big leagues for good in 2016 as he has put together an ISO between .182 and .189 in his three MLB seasons including this year’s .188 number. Kepler has interestingly posted that .188 ISO against both lefties and righties this season. He’s picked up the power to a .205 ISO in the second half of the season, including an increased .233 mark in the month of September so far. Like Cave, Kepler’s numbers substantially improve at home as he owns a big .247 ISO and .918 OPS at Target Field against right-handed pitching. He’s racked up two doubles over his last two starts so I will look for more extra-base top at the tail end of this four-man stack tonight.

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