Last night’s DraftKings MLB DFS were good, and boy did we extract some massive value out of some very low-owned players on Wednesday’s eight-game slate!
It was unfortunate that our top pitcher Aaron Nola didn’t produce as hoped. Nola went just five innings against the Nationals while allowing four earned runs, but still struck out five. Given his recent history against Washington, I was looking for much more here.
Our second pitcher David Price was flat-out dominant in a low-scoring win over the Blue Jays. Price hurled seven frames of shutout baseball while striking out seven Blue Jays. He didn’t walk a batter, allowed only three hits and notched the 15th win of his season in the process.
Our Twins stack didn’t produce as well as the previous night, but we still received some value. Eddie Rosario and Logan Forsythe didn’t contribute, but Jake Cave and Max Kepler combined to go 3 for 6 with two doubles, two runs scored and an RBI. It’s too bad the other two members of the stack were so quiet.
Where the money was made was with the low-owned Angels four-man stack, led by catcher Francisco Arcia. Arcia hit two home runs on the night and mixed in a double to boot. He also notched four RBI and scored a pair of runs as well. Next, Jose Miguel Fernandez also hit a home run for the second straight night, easily eclipsing his value at a $3K price tag. Andrelton Simmons mixed in three hits of his own along with a walk, two runs scored and an RBI. Lastly, Taylor Ward walked and scored a run. All said, what value we received here!
Let’s put a solid night in our back pocket and move onto tonight’s six-game main slate!
P – Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS) – $9,100 vs. TOR
Despite coming off a very poor start against a tough Astros offense, I like Rodriguez tonight against a watered down Blue Jays club that was dominated last night by fellow left-hander David Price. Rodriguez did strike out 12 batters in his return from the DL the start prior to that outing against Houston, so he’s definitely got upside in that department considering his very strong 26.1% strikeout rate on the season and his 3.21 FIP at home. Overall, Rodriguez owns a rock-solid 3.64 ERA on the season while his 3.60 FIP would seem to support that figure. With the Blue Jays projected to score just 3.5 runs and with the Red Sox sitting at heavy -250 favorites, I have no problem with the young southpaw tonight.
P – Brett Anderson (OAK) – $6,600 vs. BAL
Anderson is coming off the DL and hasn’t pitched since August 27th, meaning he may be on some type of pitch count in this one. Still, his matchup with the Orioles is an extremely favorable one, and with the A’s at -177 favorites right now, his win upside is solid if he can reach five innings. Anderson has been real good this season, especially in the second half of the season where he has pitched to a tidy 2.83 ERA. Anderson isn’t a big strikeout guy, but his strikeout rate has improved on the road. Prior to going just 2.2 innings and getting injured in his pre-DL outing, Anderson had allowed just two earned runs in his previous four starts combined while going at least seven innings three times. Given the cost, I will roll the dice in his return from the DL.
C – Mike Zunino (SEA) – $2,900 vs. LAA
We are rostering some pricey bats in our lineup tonight, and therefore we will need some low-cost bats as well so we will roster a Mariners mini-stack that is easy on the wallet, beginning here with Zunino. Zunino has plenty of pop in his bat with 19 home runs on the season in just 357 plate appearances while he owns a big .231 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. He is set to take on right-hander Odrisamer Despaigne tonight, a pitcher with a 6.40 ERA on the season. At this price, his value upside is huge given his big-time power bat.
1B – Matt Olson (OAK) – $4,500 vs. BAL
The A’s are going to be our main stack tonight as they bring plenty of upside against right-hander Dylan Bundy in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards in Baltimore. Olson enters play sporting a big-time .251 ISO and .817 OPS on the season against right-handed pitching while he’s clubbed 22 of his 26 homers for the season against righties. Olson is feeling it at the plate right now with two homers over his last four games while he’s also doubled, scored three runs and driven in four in that span with two multi-hit games over his last three. Enough said.
2B – Whit Merrifield (KC) – $4,800 vs. MIN
Led Lowrie can obviously be used in this spot, but I am going a different direction and will roster Merrifield who has an incredible matchup tonight against left-hander Stephen Gonsalves of the Twins. First, Gonsalves has been brutalized in the big leagues so far to the tune of an eye-popping 11.68 ERA in four starts. He’s also yielded a 1.122 OPS to right-handed hitters. Second, Merrifield brings elite cross-category upside to the table against lefties as he’s mashed them for a .359 average, and .941 OPS on the season while he has also stolen 14 of his 35 stolen bases this season off of southpaws. He is the top second baseman on this slate.
3B – Matt Chapman (OAK) – $4,700 vs. BAL
Back to our A’s stack here with Chapman, who owns some reverse-splits and hits righties batter than he does lefties. Chapman has pounded right-handed pitching to the tune of a huge .275 ISO and .921 OPS on the season compared to a .166 ISO and .807 OPS against lefties. He has taken off to a whole new level in the second half of the season as he’s posted a massive .323 ISO and 1.045 OPS while he’s rattled off four doubles over his last four games. Bundy has struggled to a 5.77 ERA at home this season and is among the big leagues’ worst qualified pitchers this year, so Chapman’s upside is immense.
SS – Adalberto Mondesi (KC) – $4,500 vs. MIN
Our Royals mini-stack is complete here with Mondesi who brings real nice power/speed upside into this lineup tonight. Since being promoted to the big leagues, Mondesi has produced a powerful .209 ISO and .807 OPS against right-handed pitching while he has stolen seven of his 22 bases off of lefties as well. In the minors this season, he didn’t hit lefties as well as he did righties, but he did steal 10 bases in just 29 games. He’s going to hit right behind Merrifield in the two-hole tonight against the immensely struggling Gonsalves, so his upside is massive alongside the Royals’ leadoff man.
OF – Dee Gordon (SEA) – $3,300 vs. LAA
We will complete our Mariners mini-stack here with Gordon who doesn’t bring much power to the table but some of the top stolen base upside in the entire league. Gordon has stolen 30 bases this season, which happens to be in a sixth-place tie league-wide with Billy Hamilton of the Reds. Gordon’s been a little quiet at the plate lately, but at this low cost and part of a mini-stack with Zunino tonight, I like his upside to complement our main stack.
OF – Khris Davis (OAK) – $5,100 vs. BAL
Baseball’s home run leader is set for yet another favorable matchup tonight, this time against Bundy who has allowed a whopping 37 home runs this season and a huge 2.19 HR/9 at home. Davis also sports some reverse splits on the season as he’s absolutely obliterated right-handed pitching for a .307 ISO and .897 OPS on the season. Also, he’s taken off in the second half as he’s mashed for a .358 ISO and .945 OPS since the All-Star break. There isn’t much more to say other than he has the most home run upside on this slate tonight.
OF – Ramon Laureano (OAK) – $4,300 vs. BAL
Completing our four-man A’s stack tonight will be Laureano who will actually lead this stack off out of the leadoff spot tonight in Baltimore. Laureano has brought fantastic power/speed upside to the table in his brief time in the big leagues this season. In 64 at-bats against righties, Laureano has mashed for a massive .328 ISO and 1.007 OPS with four of his five stolen bases coming against righties. He also provided excellent power and speed at the Triple-A level this season and has fantastic cross-category upside out of the leadoff spot tonight against the right-hander Bundy.