This is the second last week of regular season MLB DFS baseball, and we need to make it a good one!
It’s really crazy to think that the summer and baseball season is winding down, but in terms of baseball, the best is certainly yet to come.
That said, welcome to a fresh week of MLB DFS, and let’s get this puppy started on the right note on tonight’s 12-game main slate!
TOR @ BAL / KC @ PIT
*Tonight’s lineup is aimed at GPPs*
P – Zack Wheeler (NYM) – $10,500 vs. PHI
Wheeler is on an absolute tear and his already-stellar strikeout upside gets a boost tonight against the Phillies, but he’s a little risky tonight in the sense that the Mets are +106 underdogs at the moment. Still, the work that Wheeler has put in lately has been off the charts. Since the All-Star break, the right-hander owns a minuscule 1.88 ERA across 10 starts and 76 innings in that span. He’s also allowed one earned run or less in seven of those 10 starts. He owns a quality 24.5% strikeout clip on the season, but Wheeler faces a Phillies team that owns the league’s third-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season at 24.9%. His offense is also a lot better on the road, so I will roll the dice a little bit with Wheeler and his lights-out second half.
P – Tyler Glasnow (TB) – $7,900 vs. TEX
Glasnow hasn’t been striking out as many batters as we are used to lately and the venue isn’t in his favor tonight at Globe Life Park in Arlington, but the Rays are currently -134 favorites and Glasnow can provide plenty of value at this price. On the season, the big right-hander owns a huge 29.1% strikeout rate in between the bullpen in Pittsburgh and the rotation in Tampa Bay, but his strikeout clip has dropped to just 13.5% over his last two starts. Still, he allowed just two earned runs while going seven strong innings against a very tough Indians lineup his last time out. The Rangers are also a high-strikeout team with a 24.3% k-rate against righties this season, the fifth-highest mark in the big leagues. I am looking to extract value out of Glasnow tonight.
C – Yasmani Grandal (LAD) – $4,100 vs. COL
Jon Gray has not pitched well in the months of August and September after a strong July, and I think the Dodgers can take advantage of that in a pivotal NL West matchup in Los Angeles tonight. After our stacks were laid out, we still needed a catcher and a first baseman, oddly enough, so let’s roll out a Dodgers mini-stack against Gray, beginning here with Grandal. The switch-hitting catcher is hitting righties for much more power than lefties as he owns a big .240 ISO and .830 OPS against righties compared to a .165 ISO and .716 OPS versus lefties. He is also destroying right-handers at home to the tune of a huge .260 ISO and .924 OPS, so there’s not much hesitation to roster the veteran backstop tonight.
1B – Max Muncy (LAD) – $4,600 vs. COL
The breakout star Muncy is certainly in good hands with his matchup tonight against Gray. First, he has clobbered right-handed pitching for a massive .323 ISO and .958 OPS on the season. Second, those numbers increase to an unworldly .353 ISO and .974 OPS at home against right-handed pitching. Lastly, Muncy has already gotten to gray in their history against one another as he’s 2 for 4 with a homer and a double against the right-hander. I like the fact that Muncy and Grandal are likely to hit 4-5 in the Dodgers’ lineup tonight, so let’s roll with their high ceilings against a struggling pitcher.
2B – Logan Forsythe (MIN) – $2,700 vs. DET
I continue to like Forsythe’s upside in stacks despite the fact he isn’t hitting for power. What he is doing is getting on base at a fantastic .370 clip and hitting .283 with the Twins since coming over from the Dodgers at the trade deadline. His price tag also allows us to spend up elsewhere. His matchup tonight is a favorable one as Forsythe faces Tigers right-hander Jordan Zimmermann, a pitcher with a 4.55 FIP at home this season. He’s also a pitcher that Forsythe has enjoyed success against in the past as he has went 5 for 15 (.440) with a pair of doubles against the veteran righty. He is the first of four Twins we will roster tonight.
3B – Jeimer Candelario (DET) – $4,200 vs. MIN
The Tigers hit left-handed pitching much better than they do righties, so I wanted to get a couple of high-upside pieces of that offense tonight against Twins southpaw Gabriel Moya. Moya owns an unimpressive 4.88 ERA at the MLB level this season, so he’s certainly targetable. Enter Candelario who is set to hit in the leadoff spot again tonight as he brings a real nice .210 ISO and .847 OPS into action against lefties this season, notably better than his .170 ISO and .685 OPS against righties for the switch-hitting third baseman. He has picked up his production to a .214 ISO and .831 OPS in the month of September so far, so I am liking his upside out of that valuable leadoff spot tonight.
SS – Jorge Polanco (MIN) – $3,600 vs. DET
Polanco has enjoyed success against Zimmermann in the past and he is also hitting right-handed pitching better than he has lefties, as he too is a switch-hitter. Polanco is hitting .325 with an .840 OPS on the season against right-handed pitchers compared to a brutal .209 average and .576 OPS on the season against lefties. In his career against Zimmermann, he is 4 for 9 (.444) with a double. He is coming off a game in Kansas City yesterday where he went 4 for 5 with a homer, and also a caught stealing. He does have four steals in half a season so far, so he brings a little upside there as well out of the valuable two-hole tonight in Detroit.
OF – Nicholas Castellanos (DET) – $4,300 vs. MIN
Castellanos brings a huge amount of power to the table against left-handed pitching, so he and Candelario do indeed form a high-upside mini-stack tonight against the lefty Moya. The Tigers’ slugger owns a .290 average, .206 ISO and 1.039 OPS on the season against left-handed pitching. Castellanos has also posted a huge .946 OPS so far in the month of September. He failed to get a hit off Moya in three at-bats in his career so far, however there’s little doubt in my mind that huge upside awaits this matchup for the 26-year-old tonight.
OF – Eddie Rosario (MIN) – $4,100 vs. DET
With the way that Rosario hits right-handed pitching and the 1.87 HR/9 that Zimmermann has allowed at home this season, I am loving this price tag on the slugging outfielder. Rosario enters play sporting a .213 ISO and 831 OPS on the season against right-handed pitching, and he’s also stolen eight bases on the season to boot. While he is hitting just .250 in his career against Zimmermann in 16 at-bats, he also has a homer and two doubles in that span as well. Simply put, he’s an easy part of this stack at what I believe to be a steal of a price.
OF – Jake Cave (MIN) – $3,600 vs. DET
We’ve seen Cave in these lineups a few times over the last couple of weeks, but I don’t see why not given his power production against right-handed pitching. Cave has hit right-handers for a .281 average, .216 ISO and .822 OPS on the season. While he has better number at home in Minnesota, his power plays well against a pitcher that has yielded a lot of power this season, especially at home. There’s also the fact he sports a powerful .222 ISO in the month of September, so let’s ride with the rookie tonight in the Motor City.