There was certainly some damage done with last night’s DraftKings MLB DFS Picks, and I hope you were able to use these picks to notch yourself some profits!
Our top pitcher Zack Wheeler wasn’t quite as sharp as he has been lately, however the right-hander battled through it and ended up completing seven innings, albeit with just four strikeouts and four earned runs allowed. In a rare occurrence, the Mets actually backed Wheeler up with enough run support so he could notch his 12th victory of the season, so I am satisfied with this outing.
Our second starter Tyler Glasnow was excellent and provided our lineup with real nice value. Glasnow hurled six shutouts innings to go along with six strikeouts while earning a victory at the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park in Arlington.
Our Twins stack performed well against Tigers right-hander Jordan Zimmermann as we received home runs from both Eddie Rosario and Jorge Polanco. Logan Forsythe provided nice value with a hit, two walks and a run scored. Lastly, Jake cave notched a hit, an RBI and a run scored. Rosario missed a couple at-bats in the three-hole as he was injured while playing defense, which is unfortunate, however this was excellent production and value from this stack.
Our Dodgers mini-stack performed nicely as well, highlighted by a Max Muncy three-run shot in the third inning. Unfortunately, Yasmani Grandal didn’t give us anything, but Muncy’s big night picked up that slack.
Lastly, Nicholas Castellanos continued to mash lefties with a three-hit night including a double, a walk and a run scored. Although Jeimer Candelario posted a zero, I don’t mind this production from this mini-stack either.
We will look to keep the profits coming on tonight’s 14-game main slate!
P – Stephen Strasburg (WAS) – $10,200 vs. MIA
There are some big-time arms on tonight’s slate. We have Strasburg, Blake Snell, Corey Kluber, Aaron Nola and Clayton Kershaw on this slate. Heck, we even have Jameson Taillon. That said, I am going to go with right-hander Stephen Strasburg for a few reasons. First, he gets a nice matchup against the light-hitting Marlins. Second, he gets a pitcher-friendly venue in the form of Marlins Park in Miami. Third, he owns huge home/road splits that favor the road with a 2.26 road ERA compared to an ugly 5.20 mark at home. Lastly, in three September starts, Strasburg has pitched to a 2.41 ERA and a 2.62 FIP to go along with a large 28.2% strikeout rate. I also like the price compared to the other top arms tonight.
P – Aaron Sanchez (TOR) – $5,900 vs. BAL
I think Sanchez can bring excellent value to this lineup if he is able to continue pitching like he has his last two times out. Over his last two starts and 13 innings, Sanchez has allowed just four earned runs to go along with 14 strikeouts. In other words, he owns a 2.77 ERA and a 27.5% strikeout rate over his last two starts, one of which was a daunting start at Fenway Park against baseball’s best offense. He has enjoyed nice success against the Orioles in his career as he is 6-3 with a 3.87 ERA against Baltimore across 12 starts while he owns a tidy 3.16 career ERA at Camden Yards in six starts and eight appearances. Active Orioles hitters are hitting just .207 against Sanchez, so let’s look for some more value tonight with the Blue Jays at -113 favorites.
C – Yan Gomes (CLE) – $3,900 vs. CWS
The way our lineup shook out today we are going to need a one-off catcher who can provide power and I believe we have that here with the Indians’ Yan Gomes. Gomes goes up against White Sox left-hander Carlos Rodon tonight at home. Gomes has mashed left-handed pitching to the tune of a .208 ISO and .858 OPS on the season, numbers that increase to a .231 ISO and .881 OPS at home against lefties. Rodon is due for some regression thanks to a wide margin between his 4.71 FIP and 5.21 xFIP compared to his 3.10 ERA. Let’s look for some one-off power from the veteran backstop tonight.
1B – Jesus Aguilar (MIL) – $4,800 vs. CIN
The use of Sanchez as our second pitcher allowed us to lock in a very high-upside stack tonight as the Brewers take on the Reds tonight in the hitter-friendly confines of Miller Park in Milwaukee. Michael Lorenzen will open for the Reds tonight, but he’s a reliever, so it is essentially the Brewers against the Reds’ bullpen tonight, a ‘pen that ranks 18th in the big leagues. Enter Aguilar who has simply mashed against both lefties and righties this season with a huge .272 ISO and .886 OPS against righties to go with a .258 ISO and .900 OPS against lefties. He is in a good matchup regardless of pitcher handedness out of that Reds bullpen tonight.
2B – Josh Harrison (PIT) – $3,700 vs. KC
The Brewers are going to see quite a bit of ownership tonight, so we will complement that group with a low-owned, low-cost stack of the Pirates at home against Royals left-hander Eric Skoglund. Skoglund has a 6.19 ERA at the big league level this season and has allowed a .840 OPS and .505 SLG to right-handed bats, so let’s stack up a few Pirates tonight, beginning here with Harrison. He isn’t hitting for as much power this season as he did in 2017, but Harrison has hit for power against lefties with a real nice .191 ISO against them this season. He also has a huge .444 ISO and .889 OPS in September so far (just three games) with a homer, a double and two RBI over his last two games. Lock him in while he’s hot.
3B – Travis Shaw (MIL) – $4,600 vs. CIN
Unlike Aguilar, Shaw does his power damage almost exclusively against right-handed pitching, which is fine as he will see the right-handed Lorenzen to start while likely seeing another at-bat or two against a right-handed pitcher tonight. He has absolutely destroyed righties to the tune of a massive .289 ISO and .891 OPS on the season while those numbers trend up to a .302 ISO and .921 OPS at home against right-handed pitching. Miller Park in Milwaukee is one of the top few parks in terms of allowing home runs to left-handed bats, so there is little hesitation to use Shaw despite the bullpen game for the Reds.
SS – Jordy Mercer (PIT) – $3,100 vs. KC
Mercer will technically conclude our three-man Pirates stack as he will likely hit at the end of it in the eight-hole, but he’s hit lefties fairly well this season and could provide this lineup with a big shot in the arm if he can produce tonight in a favorable matchup. Mercer is hitting .283 with a rock-solid .749 OPS on the season against left-handed pitching, much better numbers than his .241 average and .684 OPS against righties. Mercer actually has a very big .905 OPS at home against lefties this season as well, so it appears we have him right where we want him in this matchup tonight.
OF – Jose Osuna (PIT) – $3,300 vs. KC
Let’s go ahead and complete our three-man Pirates stack here with Osuna who I am loving a lot for some value upside tonight. Osuna plays mostly against left-handed pitching and it’s not hard to see why. He’s hit left-handers for a big-time .244 ISO and .761 OPS in the big leagues this season, numbers that crush his .025 ISO and .325 OPS against righties. He also has a .207 ISO for his brief MLB career against lefties and hit southpaws for a .900 OPS at Triple-A this season. I am looking for some very low-owned pop from Osuna tonight.
OF – Christian Yelich (MIL) – $5,900 vs. CIN
The Brewers acquired two outfielders in the offseason, and both of them are fully in the NL MVP race, and Yelich is the front runner as we speak after hitting for his second cycle of the season last night, both of which have come against the Reds. He is going to see some ownership tonight to be sure, but you’d be hard-pressed to find a hotter hitter in the big leagues right now as Yelich has posted a massive .358 ISO and 1.117 OPS so far in the month of September. He owns a .352 ISO and 1.051 at home against righties, but he’s also mashed lefties this season as well and owns the best cross-category upside on this slate. No decision to be made here.
OF – Lorenzo Cain (MIL) – $4,500 vs. CIN
A great deal of Cain’s MVP case and 5.4 WAR comes from his elite defense in center field, but also from his 28 steals and huge .399 OBP on the season. In other words, Cain has been one of, if not the best table-setters in baseball this season as he is getting on base and ton and stealing bags at will. He’s not hitting for a lot of home run power, but out of that leadoff spot, we are simply looking for him to get on base, perhaps steal a base or two and allow the power bats behind him to drive him in. If he can do that a couple times tonight, we will eclipse value and enjoy some big-time success with this four-man stack.