gravatar

DraftKings MLB DFS Picks – September 20th

Last night’s DraftKings MLB DFS Picks were a little but uneven as we had some picks perform extremely well while some others ended up being duds.

Our pitching was excellent as our top pitcher Carlos Carrasco hurled 6.2 innings of one-run ball while striking out a whopping 11 White Sox batters on the night. Unfortunately, the Indians run support came late once Carrasco was out of the game, so he took a tough-luck no decision which hurts a little bit.

Our second starter Chris Archer provided excellent value as expected against a weak Royals offense. Archer tossed seven innings of one-run ball to go along with eight strikeouts on the night. He received just two runs of support, but that was enough for Archer to notch his fifth win of the season.

Our Yankees stack ended up being a little frustrating. The Yankees did indeed get to David Price as anticipated, however the majority of the damage was done by Aaron Hicks, Miguel Andujar and Luke Voit. Our stack of Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez and Gleyber Torres, three lefty-mashers, did very little as Sanchez led the way with two walks and two runs scored, but Stanton posted a zero while Torres singled and scored. Right idea, wrong players.

Our Indians mini-stack saw Yonder Alonso produce a dud, however Jason Kipnis hit a walk-off grand slam and destroyed value as a result. He certainly picked up his teammate in this mini-stack, but Alonso also had an at-bat with the bases loaded in which he struck out.

Our Cubs mini-stack was shut out as they were dominated by Robbie Ray and the Cubs notched just one hit on the night while our one-off Steven Souza Jr. didn’t start as the D-backs rolled out a white-towel type lineup as they are out of the playoff picture.

Let’s get some more consistency going on tonight’s seven-game main slate!

P – Max Scherzer (WAS) – $13,000 vs. NYM

On a short slate, it will be tough to make up point if you don’t roster Scherzer and he goes off, so I am going to pay up and nab the top arm on tonight’s slate. Interestingly, the Mets are one of the best road offenses in baseball this season, but Mad Max enters play tonight sporting a 2.53 ERA and a huge 34.2% strikeout clip on the season. Scherzer’s strikeout rate trends up at home to the tune of a 35.8% clip while he’s notched two 11-strikeout games over his last three starts. He may not be at his very best right now, but Scherzer has the highest ceiling among pitchers on tonight’s slate by a country mile. His team is also huge -285 favorites and the Mets are projected to score a slate-low 2.9 runs tonight, so there’s no hesitation on my part here.

P – Cody Reed (CIN) – $5,500 vs. MIA

The trickle-down effect of rostering Scherzer is the fact we have to find some serious value in a couple spots throughout our lineup, and I think we can get some of that with Reed tonight in Miami. Reed is coming off his best career big league start where he threw five shutout innings to go along with a whopping 10 strikeouts at Wrigley Field this past Saturday. Reed gets a nice matchup tonight against a Marlins team that ranks in tie with the Royals for dead-last in baseball with a .650 OPS against left-handed pitching. They are also tied for last with a .286 wOBA off of lefties. Reed owns a quality 23.1% strikeout clip in five starts and 15 MLB appearances this season, and combined with the Reds favored at -129 tonight, I like Reed’s value upside this evening.

C – Reese McGuire (TOR) – $3,400 vs. TB

The way our stacks shook out today we ended up with a need for a one-off catcher, and I am going to plug in Reese McGuire who should see tiny ownership against the Rays and opener Ryne Stanek tonight. It’s very possible McGuire doesn’t even see Stanek and his 2.49 ERA tonight as he is set to hit ninth and Stanek will only go one or two innings as the Rays’ opener. No matter who he sees, McGuire is off to a nice start to his big league career with two doubles over his first 15 big league at-bats while he’s hitting .308 so far off of righties. He flashed some power in 2017 at Double-A with a .217 ISO, so I am simply looking for some one-off pop tonight, and if we get that, our lineup will be well on its way.

1B – Mitch Moreland (BOS) – $3,700 vs. NYY

I figured the Yankees would be underowned last night against David Price, and the flip side could be true of the Red Sox tonight against right-hander Masahiro Tanaka. We are getting Moreland at a very good price considering he owns a .209 ISO and .778 OPS on the season against right-handers, while he’s also hit two homers and doubled against Tanaka in his 23 at-bats against him. You could certainly go with Ji-Man Choi here who has mashed righties this season for the Rays as I am rolling out a Rays stack, but with the way the lineup shook out and cost being a concern, I am going to go with Moreland in a left-handed hitter’s haven tonight at Yankee Stadium.

2B – Joey Wendle (TB) – $4,000 vs. TOR

Yes, I am going to roll out a four-man Rays stack tonight as they are the hottest offense in baseball right now as they continue to slug their way to an improbably-good season. Wendle has been hot himself over the last couple of games by going an impressive 7 for 9 with three doubles, two runs scored, an RBI and a stolen base over his last two games. He now has four doubles over his last three games and Wendle brings solid speed upside to the table with 14 steals on the season to go along with his strong .782 OPS against righties.

3B – Rafael Devers (BOS) – $3,500 vs. NYY

Our low-cost, low-owned three-man Red Sox stack continues here with Devers who could has the opportunity to provide this lineup with excellent value as a left-handed hitter at Yankee Stadium tonight. Devers has an impressive .199 ISO this season against right-handed pitching while he owns a .222 ISO and .825 OPS on the season against right-handed pitching on the road. Devers brings a tiny bit of stolen base upside to the table with five steals on the season, but we’re obviously here for the power that gets a boost in the hitter-friendly Yankee stadium for left-handed bats.

SS – Willy Adames (TB) – $4,000 vs. TOR

Adames has also been part of the Rays recent hot stretch on offense while he owns some reverse-splits on the season as he takes on right-hander Sam Gaviglio tonight. Adames owns a .164 ISO and .780 OPS on the season against right-handed pitching, numbers that tower over his .099 ISO and .677 OPS against left-handed pitching. Adames has been swinging a powerful stick lately with two homers and a double over his last four games to go along with four runs scored and four RBI. He too brings a little bit of stolen base upside to the table with six steals on the season, so I’m liking his cross-category upside in this four-man Rays stack.

OF – Andrew Benintendi (BOS) – $4,400 vs. NYY

Benintendi has scuffled so far in the month of September, however he hits right-handed pitching very well, has hit Tanaka very well in the past and also brings quality stolen base upside to the table. Benintendi has hit right-handers for a .187 ISO and impressive .872 OPS this season, while he’s gone 7 for 21 (.333) with two homers and two doubles in his career against Tanaka. He has swiped 20 bases on the season and owns a big .880 career OPS at Yankee Stadium into action, so I am loving his matchup tonight as well as getting him at one of the cheapest price I’ve seen him at this season.

OF – Tommy Pham (TB) – $4,300 vs. TOR

Power and speed upside has been a common theme in this matchup and Pham fits that bill very thoroughly, especially given his recent performance. Pham hit two home runs yesterday afternoon in Texas, which gives him 19 home runs on the season to go along with his 12 stolen bases. He has hit for a little more power against right-handers this season with a .176 ISO against them compared to a slightly less .162 ISO against lefties, but his stolen base upside is increased against a righty. He’s 3 for 7 with a triple in his career at the Rogers Centre in Toronto and I think he stays hot out of the valuable two-hole tonight.

OF – Brandon Lowe (TB) – $4,100 vs. TOR

I remember when Lowe came up to the big leagues this season after posting a 1.014 OPS at Triple-A against righties when his price was in the $2,800-$3,000 range. Well, at this price it’s clear his production as ramped up. In the month of September, Lowe has posted a massive .396 ISO and 1.006 OPS while hitting four homers, three doubles and two triples for the month. I also like the fact the vast majority of his damage has been done on the road with a huge .316 ISO and .977 OPS against right-handers away from home. He’s certainly showing the power that earned him a big league promotion at the beginning of August.

PLAY THIS LINEUP

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.