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DraftKings MLB DFS Picks – September 21st

We had some real good picks with last night’s DraftKings MLB DFS Picks, however a few of our players didn’t start so the lineup’s success would have depended on who you used as replacements for these players.

Our top pitcher Max Scherzer wasn’t at his very best as he yielded a pair of home runs and did not earn a win, but Mad Max struck out 13 Mets on the night which made up for home runs and a lack of a win.

Our second pitcher Cody Reed delivered fantastic value as Reed hurled six innings of shutout baseball while allowing six hits and zero walks. He struck out six and earned his first win of the season in the process.

Our top stack of the Rays largely got the job done, but Willy Adames did not start and Brandon Lowe was replaced in the lineup after just two at-bats. Thankfully, it was Adames who replaced Lowe as he had a hit and an RBI. The vast majority of the damage was done by Joey Wendle and Tommy Pham as that duo combined to go 5 for 10 with a double, a triple, three runs scored, four RBI and a stolen base. Excellent production out of this duo.

Mitch Moreland didn’t start in our Red Sox three-man stack, but Andrew Benintendi notched two hits including a double to go along with a run scored, breaking out of a slump in the process. Rafael Devers provided solid value as well with two hits and two runs scored on the night. For the second straight night we used a stack against one of the slate’s top pitchers and received excellent value as a result.

Lastly, Reese McGuire did not start for the Blue Jays, so some of the lineup’s success would depend on what you did at catcher in his absence.

Let’s take another solid night from this week and enter the weekend on a good night on tonight’s 14-game main slate!

*This line is best suited for GPPs

Weather Concern:

SEA @ TEX

P – Rich Hill (LAD) – $9,500 vs. SD

Hill gets the best matchup on the slate tonight and the odds and projected run total support that theory. The Dodgers currently sit as huge -272 favorites at the moment while the Padres are projected to score just 2.9 runs tonight, the lowest total on the slate. This makes sense when we consider that the Padres rank 22nd with a .697 team OPS against left-handed pitching this season and they also have the fifth-highest strikeout rate in baseball against lefties at 23.7%. I’m not thrilled with Hill yielding four earned runs in three consecutive starts, but he’s struck out at least seven in six straight starts with eight strikeouts four times in those six starts. The last time Hill faced San Diego, he hurled six scoreless innings with eight strikeouts at Dodger stadium where this one takes place tonight.

P – Luis Castillo (CIN) – $8,800 vs. MIA

We will pick on another weak offense tonight, and for the second straight night we will pick on the Marlins. Castillo’s season did not start well, but the young right-hander has excelled in the second half of the season to the tune of a 2.79 ERA compared to his 5.49 mark in the first half. His strikeout rate has also jumped from 21.5% in the first half all the way to 27.6% in the second half. Castillo takes on a Marlins team that ranks dead last in baseball with a .668 OPS against right-handed pitching and with the Reds favored at -138 at the time of this writing, I am liking Castillo’s upside like I did Reed’s last night.

C – Salvador Perez (KC) – $3,900 vs. DET

The Royals and Tigers duked it out in a game that featured 19 runs last night, and I expect more runs from this one tonight, especially given the 15 mph wind blowing straight out to center field at Comerica Park in Detroit. The Royals get left-hander Francisco Liriano who has yielded a massive .950 OPS to right-handed hitters at home this season, so I am going to stack four Royals righties as Kansas City is the league’s seventh-hottest offense with a .343 wOBA over the last week. Enter Perez who hits for plenty of power as his 26 home runs this season are closing in on his career-high of 27 set just last season. He has a big .244 ISO in the month of September and is 4 for 15 with a homer and a double in his career against Liriano, so chalk me up for the perennial All-Star tonight.

1B – Jim Adduci (DET) – $3,400 vs. KC

I’m bucking the conventional wisdom that you have to roster an expensive, big-name player at first base by going with Adduci. However, Adduci has hit right-handed pitching well this season with a .741 OPS against them to go along with a .288 average. He only has a .144 ISO against righties this season, but posted a .178 mark in limited time last season and hit right-handed pitching for a rather impressive .892 OPS at Triple-A prior to his big league call up. He’s going to see tiny ownership on this slate, but I think he has some nice upside against a pitcher yielding 1.74 HR/9 on the road this season in Ian Kennedy.

2B – Joey Wendle (TB) – $4,200 vs. TOR

Wendle and the Rays remained scorching hot last night while putting up eight runs against the Blue Jays, and I am going to grab a couple pieces of the Rays again tonight in a mini-stack, beginning here with Wendle. His cross-category upside was on full display last night as he littered the scoreboard with extra-base power, runs scored, RBIs and a stolen base. He’s up to a .787 OPS on the season against right-handed pitching while his stolen base last night was his 15th of the season. He now has five doubles over his last four games while going 9 for 14 with four doubles, three runs, three RBI and two steals over his last three games. He has a nice matchup against Blue Jays rookie Sean Reid-Foley tonight.

3B – Hunter Dozier (KC) – $3,100 vs. DET

Dozier gives this lineup some cost-efficiency, but I think he has excellent upside against a left-hander in Liriano who has allowed plenty of power against righties at home this season. Although it came off a right-hander, Dozier drilled a home run to dead center field in last night’s contest in Detroit, a shot that exceeded the 420-foot wall at Comerica Park. Most of his power has come against righties so far in the big leagues, but Dozier has mashed for a .254 ISO and .816 OPS so far this month, so I will grab him at a very attractive price in a good matchup as part of a four-man stack this evening.

SS – Adalberto Mondesi (KC) – $4,600 vs. DET

Mondesi is well on his way to being an absolute beast both on the field and in DFS due to his power/speed combination. He’s only logged 250 plate appearances in the big leagues this season, but Mondesi has already hit 11 homers and swiped 26 bases. This is more than 25 homers and 60 steals over a full MLB season. Mondesi has flexed his muscle as of late with a home run in back-to-back games while he’s also homered five times over his last 11 games. He’s locked into the extremely valuable two-spot in the lineup and should be able to stay hot tonight as he’s also swiped eight bases over his last 13 contests.

OF – Christin Stewart (DET) – $3,700 vs. KC

Stewart enjoyed a huge game last night in just the 11th big league contest as he hit two home runs while he’s already produced five runs and seven RBI through his first seven games. Christin has a long history of hitting for power in the minors despite being just 24 years old as he posted a .216 ISO at Triple-A in 2018, .245 ISO in Double-A in 2017, .230 ISO at Double-A in 2016 and a .205 ISO in High-A in 2105. Clearly, this guy has plenty of power in his bat and he unleashed that power for the first time in the big leagues last night. He forms a low-owned, high-upside mini-stack with Adduci as Stewart is also going hit out of the valuable two-hole tonight.

OF – Whit Merrifield (KC) – $4,800 vs. DET

I am not going to unleash a four-man Royals stack against a left-hander and not include Merrifield who simply mashes left-handed pitching while brining excellent stolen base upside to the table as well. Merrifield enters play tonight sporting a .360 average, .180 OPS and a huge .946 OPS on the season against left-handed pitching while 15 of his 37 steals this season have come against southpaws. He owns a .226 ISO and 1.013 OPS against lefties on the road this season and went 3 for 5 with a double and a stolen base in last night’s game, so he is a lock for me in tonight’s matchup.

OF – Brandon Lowe (TB) – $4,100 vs. TOR

Lowe has frequented these lineups a lot lately, but given how well he has hit this month it’s not hard to see why. Despite not doing much in last night’s game and being replace by a pinch hitter after just two at-bats, Lowe enters tonight’s contest with a .380 ISO and .967 OPS for the month of September so far while he owns a .300 ISO and .931 OPS against right-handed pitching on the road this season. He also hit righties for a 1.014 OPS at Triple-A prior to his big league promotion. Lowe and Wendle are likely to hit side-by-side tonight in the 5-6 spots in the lineup, and I have high hopes for this mini-stack this evening.

PLAY THIS LINEUP

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