Our pitching could not have been better with last night’s DraftKings MLB DFS Picks, however our stacks largely disappointed. That said, we got a couple of home run in those stacks, and the pitching was so good that perhaps you could have used some of these picks to notch yourself some profits!
Our top pitcher Corey Kluber carved up the White Sox for the second straight start as the right-hander hurled seven innings of shutout ball to go along with a whopping 11 strikeouts. He also notched his 20th win of the season in the process. It certainly looks like Kluber is doing his best work of the season heading towards the postseason.
Our second pitcher Nathan Eovaldi provided massive value as he tossed five innings of one-run ball, however the flame-thrower struck out 10 en route to his sixth win of the season.
Our top stack of the Angels didn’t produce much, although Shohei Ohtani drilled his 21st home run of the season as his assault on right-handed pitching continues. Aside from Ohtani, the trio of Kole Calhoun, Mike Trout and Jose Miguel Fernandez produced next to nothing.
Our second stack of the Mariners also didn’t do a whole lot, although we did get a surprising home run from Dee Gordon, a two-run shot that was just the fourth of the season. Gordon has interestingly homered in back-to-back games after hitting just two up until that point. Mike Zunino doubled and scored a run as part of a two-hit night, but we wanted more from Jean Segura and Kyle Seager.
Still, the pitching was the best we’ve had in some time and perhaps you were able to use some of our productive players to notch a profit.
Let’s move onto tonight’s 14-game slate!
BAL @ BOS / ATL @ NYM / CLE @ CWS
P – Max Scherzer (WAS) – $12,800 vs. MIA
We are going to load up big-time on pitching tonight and run with some value stacks as I believe the top two pitchers on this slate are in fantastic matchups. For his part, Scherzer gets a home matchup against a light-hitting Marlins offense. In fact, Miami ranks last in baseball with just a .668 OPS against right-handed pitching this season. Scherzer hasn’t been at his absolute best in terms of run prevention in the month of September, but he is coming off of a 13-strikeout efforts in his most recent start against another soft offense in the New York Mets. His 34.6% strikeout clip on the season (36.4% at home) is too good to pass up on, especially with the Nationals favored at a monumental -372 at the moment and with the Marlins projected to score a slate-low 2.6 runs.
P – Walker Buehler (LAD) – $11,700 vs. ARI
At first look, Buehler’s price is extremely high, but a closer look reveals how remarkably consistent this guy has been. Buehler has allowed more than three earned runs in just five of his 21 starts on the season and more than two runs in just one of his last 10 starts. He’s also struck out at least nine in four of his last six starts. For the season, Buehler has posted a tidy 2.74 ERA to go along with a 28.9% strikeout clip. I like the matchup in Arizona due to the fact that the Diamondbacks rank 26th with a .691 OPS against right-handed pitching this season and somehow ranked 22nd in home offense despite the hitting-friendly confines of Chase Field. I think the price is worth it tonight with the Dodgers at heavy -216 favorites and with the D-backs projected to score just 3.4 runs tonight.
C – Mike Zunino (SEA) – $3,200 vs. OAK
Zunino provided our lineup with some value with two hits including a double and a run scored in last night’s game, and I’ll simply take his power upside in a matchup against A’s lefty Brett Anderson tonight. Zunino has boasted some reverse splits this season and has hit righties for a little more power in his MLB career, but the guy still has a powerful .183 ISO on the season against right-handed pitching and a .188 mark for this career. He has a .204 ISO for the month of September so far and has clubbed 20 homers on the season, so there is certainly value upside to be had here.
1B – Jose Miguel Fernandez (LAA) – $3,100 vs. TEX
The last time we used a low-cost Angels stack against Rangers right-handed Yovani Gallardo it produced great results and we are going to fire up another four-man stack tonight against the struggling right-hander. Gallardo owns a 6.59 ERA on the season and a whopping 8.57 ERA on the road in 34.2 innings, so I’m liking the value upside here, beginning with Fernandez. In fact, one of the two homers he’s hit this season has come off Gallardo as part of that aforementioned stack, and I also like the fact he hit right-handed pitching for a big .985 OPS at Triple-A prior to his call up. With the Angels projected to score five runs, I think there’s a ton of value to extract here tonight.
2B – Kaleb Cowart (LAA) – $3,200 vs. TEX
The switch-hitting Cowart has logged just 108 big league plate appearances this season, but he’s been swinging a hot bat over the last couple of games and the price tag is certainly right. Over the last two games, Cowart has gone 3 for 8 with two doubles. He has simply scuffled all season long to this point, but the good news is Cowart owns a .18 4 ISO for the month of September so far. At Triple-A this season, Cowart posted a nice .808 OPS against right-handed pitching and also stole eight bases. He brings some speed upside to the table and I like the fact he’s swinging a confident bat entering tonight’s contest.
3B – Taylor Ward (LAA) – $3,100 vs. TEX
The vast majority of Ward’s power damage at the MLB level this season has gone against left-handed pitching, but it’s the reverse splits of Gallardo that could have him in a better spot tonight against a righty. Gallardo has been clobbered by right-handed hitters this season to the tune of a .972 OPS and a 1.017 OPS on the road against righties (this number is .901 against lefties, so he’s been torched by both sides). Ward also did more damage against lefties in the minors, but he also hit right-handers for a rather large .959 OPS at Triple-A earlier in the season. He also stole 10 bases at Triple-A, and although he has just one in the big leagues at this point, I will add a sliver of stolen base upside to increase his value upside tonight.
SS – Elvis Andrus (TEX) – $3,100 vs. LAA
Andrus’ price is just at a point where we cannot scoop him up given that we need some very low-cost bats in this lineup. He’s a one off, but when Andrus is one he delivers solid power/speed upside, although a broken elbow suffered earlier in the year has hindered his season and he has just six homers and four steals to this point. He has hit well at this venue in the past with a career .778 OPS at Angel Stadium while he is projected to hit in a very valuable spot in the three-hole tonight. Let’s look for that power/speed upside to shine through in a venue he enjoys tonight.
OF – Kole Calhoun (LAA) – $3,400 vs. TEX
Calhoun completes our four-man Angels stack and he gives us nice upside out of the leadoff spot tonight against a struggling pitcher. His upside is that of both power and speed as Calhoun has launched 19 homers this season and swiped six bases. His power upside is greatly improved against a right-handed pitcher as he sports a real solid .190 ISO against righties compared to a tiny .086 mark against lefties. I love the value in rostering the leadoff hitter for a team projected to score five runs tonight.
OF – Cameron Maybin (SEA) – $3,000 vs. OAK
These last two players may not be the sexiest plays on the slate, but they form a three-man stack with Zunino against left-handed Brett Anderson tonight who has allowed at least four earned runs in two of his last three starts. His home run power hasn’t been there against lefties, but Maybin has stolen nine bases this season while eight of his 13 doubles have come against left-handed pitching, so perhaps the extra-base power could be there. He’s not a great one-off play, but hopefully he can notch an extra-base hit, steal a base and score a run or two tonight.
OF – Guillermo Heredia (SEA) – $3,200 vs. OAK
Heredia has been on fire over the last few games and if he keeps it up he was easily eclipse value in this matchup tonight. Over the last three games, Heredia is 5 for 10 with a homer, two doubles, three runs scored, three RBI and a stolen base. He spent some time at Triple-A this season, and although he logged just seven at-bats against lefties, he went 5 for 7 with a double, three runs scored, two RBI and stolen base. He is providing very sneaky cross-category upside right now and I think he can give this lineup a real shot in the arm at tiny ownership tonight.