We saw some of the good and some of the bat with last night’s DraftKings MLB DFS Picks, but at the end of the day the lineup was not good enough to rake in any profits.
Our top pitcher Masahiro Tanaka did not get our lineup off to a good start as the right-hander lasted just four innings in his start at Tampa Bay, yielding three runs, all in the first inning, while striking out only four. It was going to be tough to get into profit territory with results like this from our top arm.
Our second pitcher Shane Bieber took advantage of his favorable matchup at Chicago against the strikeout-happy White Sox. Bieber hurled six innings of shutout baseball to go along with nine strikeouts, earning his 11th win of the season in impressive fashion.
In a nutshell, our stacks did not produce. Our four-man Mariners stack was extremely disappointing as we did not receive a single extra-base hit or a stolen base in this one. The Mariners got to starter Edwin Jackson as expected, but were doused by the A’s bullpen.
Our three-man Angels stack saw some low-owned power from Taylor Ward as he clubbed his fourth career big league homer. Aside from Ward’s home, it was another quiet night for our Angels stack.
Where we did get some serious production was from our one-off outfielder David Dahl. The Rockies routed the Phillies and Dahl hit a three-run homer as part of a two-hit night to go along with a walk and three runs scored as well.
We will look to improve on tonight’s small six-game main slate!
HOU @ BAL
P – Marco Gonzales (SEA) – $8,800 vs. TEX
With Gerrit Cole facing some serious weather issues in Baltimore, the slate lacks some true strikeout upside, so I am going to roll with a couple of pitchers who bring nice win upside into their matchups as evidenced by the Vegas odds and projected run totals of their opponents. Marco Gonzales had struggled in his most recent starts, however Gonzales enjoyed a fantastic start in his most recent outing, which just so happened to come against these very same Rangers, and it came in a hitter-friendly venue at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Although that was a nice road outing, Gonzales has been better at home this season with a 3.87 ERA at Safeco Field in Seattle as opposed to a 4.33 ERA on the road. Furthermore, his 2.71 FIP at home greatly outweighs his 4.15 FIP on the road and his 23.1% strikeout rate at home is much higher than his 18.8% strikeout rate on the road. With the Mariners favored at -170 and the Rangers projected at 3.9 runs tonight, I like this matchup for the lefty.
P – Julio Teheran (ATL) – $8,500 vs. NYM
Teheran has traditionally pitched extremely well at Citi Field in New York, and the Mets are the second-worst home offense in baseball this season with an OPS of .650 at Citi Field. Teheran has pitched well lately as he owns a 3.09 ERA with a 23% strikeout rate in four September starts while he has pitched to a tidy 2.34 ERA across 12 starts at Citi Field in his career. Active Mets hitters have hit Teheran for just a .196 average in this careers against him. Teheran’s Braves are -113 favorites tonight, which is a little surprising to me, however given his dominance of the Mets, especially at this venue, I have no problem locking in the right-hander at an attractive price.
C – Kurt Suzuki (ATL) – $4,200 vs. NYM
Mets left-hander Jason Vargas has been clobbered by right-handed hitting this season to the tune of an .889 OPS this season, and while he’s been better at home, these Braves possess some serious power bats against lefties this season, beginning here with the veteran backstop Suzuki. Suzuki has mashed left-handed pitching to the tune of a .224 ISO and .850 OPS on the season while he’s homered 12 times overall. He’s absolutely mashing in the month of September with a massive .293 ISO and 1.038 OPS this month while he rides a four-game hit streak into tonight’s action. Lots of power upside here.
1B – Tyler Austin (MIN) – $4,000 vs. DET
The Braves aren’t the only club with a nice matchup against a left-handed pitching as Tyler Austin’s Twins have a favorable matchup against Tigers left-hander Francisco Liriano. Liriano allowed four earned runs in just 1.2 innings in his last trip to Target Field, so we are going to roll out a Twins mini-stack here beginning with Austin. The former Yankee has simply obliterated left-handed pitching this season to the tune of a massive .310 ISO and .860 OPS this season while he’s hit for a big .259 ISO since his trade to the Twins from the Yankees at the deadline. He’s also homered against Liriano in just two at-bats. Lock this guy in.
2B – Ozzie Albies (ATL) – $4,300 vs. NYM
Albies brings some excellent cross-category upside to this lineup tonight out of the projected two-hole against the left-hander Vargas. The switch-hitting youngster has massive lefty/righty splits that easily favor this matchup tonight against a lefty. He’s posted just a .703 OPS and a solid .185 ISO against right-handed pitching, but Albies has obliterated left-handers to the tune of a .219 ISO and .919 OPS on the season. Albies is also a stolen base threat with 13 steals on the season, albeit with just two against a lefty. Still, he’s 3 for 8 with a double against Vargas and has homered twice over his last five games, so let’s look for more cross-category production tonight.
3B – Johan Camargo (ATL) – $4,000 vs. NYM
Camargo has quietly been a big difference-maker for the Braves this season and he’s done a ton of damage against left-handed pitching. For the season, the young infielder has clobbered southpaws for a .224 ISO and .840 OPS while that ISO climbs to .279 against lefties on the road. He’s enjoyed a real production second half of the season as well with a .848 OPS since the All-Stat break compared to a .768 OPS prior to the break. Like his teammates before him, Camargo is in a position to succeed tonight.
SS – Ronny Rodriguez (DET) – $3,200 vs. MIN
We need to find some real value somewhere along the line in this lineup, and I think Rodriguez can bring that value at tiny ownership tonight as part of a Tigers mini-stack against the Twins. He’s small in stature, but Rodriguez powered up for a .219 ISO at the Triple-A level prior to his big league promotion this season while he also stole 10 bases at Triple-A as well. He has a five-game hit streak entering play tonight with a double and a homer in that span as well. It’s going to be a bullpen game for the Twins, so it’s unclear who exactly Rodriguez will face tonight, but he brings sneaky power/speed upside into this matchup at low ownership.
OF – Mikie Mahtook (DET) – $4,000 vs. MIN
Mahtook is going to be another low-owned commodity tonight, however the rise in Mahtook’s price since his call up indicates he’s been performing, and that has indeed been the case. His overall numbers this season don’t look great due to a brutal first half, however in the second half of the season, Mahtook has mashed for a hue .274 ISO and .808 OPS with a .255 ISO so far in the month of September. Mahtook also brings some stolen base upside into action as he has four steals at the big league level combined with six steals at the Tripe-A level this season. I like the sneaky power/speed upside his red-hot bat brings to the table.
OF – Ronald Acuna (ATL) – $5,200 vs. NYM
This play here is a no-brainer as Acuna leads off against the Mets tonight. First, Acuna has simply destroyed left-handed pitching this season to the tune of a .300 ISO and .983 OPS for the season. Second, he has mashed Vargas in their brief history against one another by going 4 for 5 with a homer and a triple to go along with a stolen base against the lefty. He has 26 homers and 16 steals on the season, and combined with his spot as the leadoff man, gives him the top cross-category upside on this six-game slate tonight.
OF – Robbie Grossman (MIN) – $3,600 vs. DET
Completing our lineup as well as our Twins mini-stack is Grossman who is projected to hit in the cleanup spot tonight, one spot ahead of Austin in the five-hole. Grossman hasn’t flexed a whole lot of home run muscle this season, but he’s hitting .319 with a large .855 OPS against left-handed pitching. The good news here is he is hitting ahead of Austin, therefore we can look for him to get on base and score some runs tonight at a cheap price. He has a decent .150 ISO and a big .879 OPS in the month of September so far and is coming off a two-hit, two RBI performance that included a double last night. I like his value upside in this matchup.