Welcome to a fresh new week of MLB DFS!
I hope that your Labor Day Weekend was a good one! It’s back to reality today, but the good news is that we get a maximum 15-game slate going on this Tuesday evening. This gives us a good opportunity to get our week started on the right note, something I will do my best to accomplish with tonight’s DraftKings MLB DFS Picks!
Let’s get right to it!
P – Justin Verlander (HOU) – $12,300 vs. MIN
The nice thing about a big slate is there are plenty of low-cost, value stacks available, which means it’s easier to pay up and nab the top pitcher on the slate, in this case Justin Verlander. Verlander gets a home matchup with the Twins tonight which already looks like an extremely favorable one considering the Twins are projected to score a slate-low 2.7 runs at the moments while the Astros are massive -300 favorites. Verlander clearly brings plenty of strikeout upside to the table tonight as he sports a huge 33.7% strikeout clip on the season, a number that actually jumps to 36.8% at Minute Maid Park in Houston. The Astros’ offense is back to full health, meaning they should be able to provide plenty of run support against Trevor May tonight, giving Verlander excellent win upside to go along with the punchout upside as well.
P – Robbie Ray (ARI) – $8,900 vs. SD
To be honest I actually prefer Ray on the road given his splits this season and last, but the strikeout upside is plentiful tonight against the Padres in Arizona. Ray carries an impressive 30.4% strikeout clip into tonight’s action while he faces a Padres club that owns the league’s third-highest strikeout rate against lefties at 24% this season and also the third-highest strikeout rate in the second half of the season at 24.7%. Like Verlander, it’s easy to tell this is a nice matchup for the D-backs lefty as the Padres are projected to score just 3.5 runs while the D-backs are heavy -169 favorites in this one. He doesn’t usually pitch too deep, but his strikeout upside is immense in this matchup at a more than reasonable price tag.
C – Yan Gomes (CLE) – $4,000 vs. KC
We are going to roll out a pair of mini-stacks and a three-man stack tonight, and one of our two mini-stacks begins here with Gomes as he and the Indians are set to take on left-hander Danny Duffy of the Royals. Gomes has hit left-handed pitching very well this season as he’ll enter play sporting a powerful .223 ISO and .893 OPS on the season against southpaws. Furthermore, Gomes has pounded Duffy in their history against one another as he has gone 10 for 26 (.385) with three homers and three doubles against the southpaw, good for a massive .462 ISO and 1.231 OPS. Safe to say the matchup here is a favorable one for the veteran backstop.
1B – Jim Adduci (DET) – $3,400 vs. CWS
The Tigers have been one of the league’s worst offenses against right-handed pitching this season, but I think they can certainly get to White Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito tonight in Chicago. Giolito has pitched better lately, including a couple of nice outings against these Tigers in Detroit, but he’s allowed 10 earned runs in 11 innings in two home starts against the Tigers. All told, he owns a 5.25 ERA in four starts against the Tigers this season and a ghastly 7.52 ERA at home. Enter the low-owned Adduci who is projected to hit second in the lineup tonight and owns a .314 average and .812 OPS against right-handed pitching this season in the big leagues after hitting righties for an impressive .892 OPS at Triple-A this year. I love his upside at a low cost and low ownership.
2B – Ketel Marte (ARI) – $3,700 vs. SD
The D-backs will face left-handed rookie Joey Lucchesi tonight, a pitcher who has pitched to a solid 3.59 ERA this season, but also a 4.03 mark in the second half. In a hitter-friendly park at Chase Field in Arizona, I am going to roster a couple of D-backs who have clobbered lefties this season, beginning here with Marte. The middle infielder has mashed southpaws for a .238 ISO and .931 OPS on the season with six of his 10 homers and 15 of his 21 doubles coming against southpaws despite logging 127 more at-bats against righties on the year. Lastly, Marte has obliterated lefties for a massive .299 ISO and 1.001 OPS at home this season, so sign me up.
3B – Jeimer Candelario (DET) – $3,700 vs. CWS
Considering Candelario’s power and the fact he is hitting in the leadoff spot against a pitcher who a 7.52 ERA at home this season, I think this is one of the best plays on the slate at this price. Candelario enters play sporting a rock-solid .173 ISO on the season while he’s clubbed 16 homers in the process. Candelario has scuffled in the second half of the season a little bit, but he’s also 4 for 10 (.400) in his career against Giolito, so I am digging his upside as the leadoff hitter against a pitcher that has largely struggled for a large portion of the season.
SS – Nick Ahmed (ARI) – $3,900 vs. SD
We will complete our first mini-stack here with Ahmed who, like Marte, has also clobbered left-handed pitching this season. Ahmed will enter tonight’s contest sporting a very powerful .232 ISO and .793 OPS on the season against lefties, numbers that are vastly superior to his .166 ISO and .685 OPS against righties for the season. After a huge July, Ahmed hasn’t hit nearly as well in August or September yet, but the fact that he is 4 for 9 (.444) with two home runs against Lucchesi makes me believe he enjoys this matchup as much as I do at an attractive price as part of a mini-stack.
OF – Brandon Guyer (CLE) – $3,100 vs. KC
Another mini-stack is complete here as the lefty-mashing Guyer takes on southpaw Danny Duffy, a pitcher he has enjoyed plenty of success against in the past. Guyer has clobbered lefties for a .233 ISO and .822 OPS on the season, number that creep up to a .255 ISO and .866 OPS against lefties at home this season. Furthermore, in his career against Duffy, Guyer has gone 7 for 15 (.467) with a homer and two doubles against the veteran. He may very well provide the most value upside on this slate tonight.
OF – Niko Goodrum (DET) – $3,900 vs. CWS
Completing our three-man Tigers stack tonight is Goodrum who brings real nice power/speed upside to the lineup, especially against a righty. Goodrum has produced a very powerful .239 ISO this season against righties to go along with a rock-solid .751 OPS. It’s also nice to see that 15 of his 16 homers this season have come against righties. He has also been white-hot at the dish lately, hitting a home run in three of his last five games to go along with four RBI, four runs scored and one stolen base. He has those 16 homers and 10 steals on the season, so let’s grab that combination and run in a favorable matchup.
OF – Lewis Brinson (MIA) – $2,800 vs. PHI
Brinson has some pop in his bat which is good enough for me to finalize this lineup as this spot required a cost-efficient player given the pitching we paid up for. Brinson has popped 10 home runs this season despite missing plenty of time with injuries. He has also traditionally been a reverse-splits hitter at the minor league level as he sported a massive 1.054 OPS against righties at Triple-A last season compared to a .685 mark against lefties as he gets get to take on right-hander Jake Arrieta who has been notably worse on the road this season. Some power from the youngster would give this lineup a massive shot in the arm tonight.