Last night’s DraftKings MLB DFS Picks did some damage, especially with our pitchers who brought that upside we desired.
Justin Verlander delivered another gem while leading the Astros to victory. The 35-year-old right-hander hurled seven innings of one-run ball to go along with eight strikeouts en route to his 14th win of the season.
Our second pitcher Robbie Ray delivered a ton of value for our lineup as Ray tossed 6.1 frames while allowing just two hits and two walks to go along with a whopping 10 strikeouts. The effort was enough to notch Ray his fifth win of the season in his best outing of the season.
Our top stack of the Tigers wasn’t overly impressive, but Niko Goodrum did some damage as a member of that group by going 2 for 4 with a walk, three runs scored and a stolen base, his 11th of the season.
Our Indians mini-stack became a one-off as Yan Gomes did not start this game, so your results could have been affected by who you used at catcher. Nonetheless, Brandon Guyer delivered solid value by going 2 for 5 with an RBI.
Our D-backs mini-stack performed very well, especially Ketel Marte who went 2 for 3 with a run, an RBI and a stolen base. Nick Ahmed delivered nice value thanks to an RBI triple and a run scored.
Lastly, our one-off value play Lewis Brinson contributed just a single on the night, but I suppose that is better than a zero.
Overall, a very solid night and hopefully you were able to use some of those picks, especially the pitching, to notch yourself some profits.
Let’s move on and tackle tonight’s 12-game main slate!
P – Michael Kopech (CWS) – $9,000 vs. DET
The Tigers were able to get to a White Sox right-hander in last night’s contest, however I think things will be a little different tonight as they take on super-prospect Michael Kopech who will make his fourth big league start tonight and second against the Tigers. In his previous start against the Tigers, in Detroit, Kopech hurled six innings of one-run ball to go along with four strikeouts. Across his first three starts of his MLB career, he owns an eye-popping 0.82 ERA, although his 3.15 FIP suggests regression. Still, Kopech struck out Triple-A hitters at a massive 31.3% clip prior to his call up this year while he will face a Tigers team that ranks 28th with a .290 wOBA in the season’s second half and 29th with a .291 wOBA on the season against right-handed pitching. Very nice matchup for the 22-year-old tonight at home.
P – Nick Pivetta (PHI) – $8,200 vs. MIA
I also like Tyler Glasnow of the Rays tonight, but Pivetta comes cheaper, has big-time strikeout upside and faces a Marlins offense that ranks near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories, so I will roll with the 25-year-old right-hander tonight. Pivetta has had some ups and downs on the year, but he’s pitched better than his 4.66 ERA might suggest as he owns a solid 3.66 FIP and even better 3.32 xFIP. Pivetta also brings a big-time 28.2% strikeout clip into action tonight. In two starts this season against the Marlins, Pivetta has pitched 11.2 innings of two-run ball to go along with a whopping 16 strikeouts, or 12.3 K/9. With Miami projected to score just 3.3 runs and the Phillies sitting at big -166 favorites, I like the right-hander’s upside tonight in a pitcher-friendly venue.
C – Omar Narvaez (CWS) – $3,400 vs. DET
I believe Kopech will get some nice run support from his teammates tonight against right-hander Jordan Zimmermann of the Tigers. Chicago has clobbered Zimmermann for a .938 OPS this season while the righty owns an 8.85 ERA against the ChiSox this season across four starts, so I am going to roll out a four-man White Sox stack, beginning here with Narvaez. I think we can extract real nice value out of the catcher tonight as he owns a real nice .299 average and .832 OPS on the season against righties while all six of his homers and 13 of his 14 doubles have come against righties. Narvaez is also 8 for 12 (.667) with a pair of doubles in his career against the righty, so he easily makes his way into my lineup out of the projected three-hole tonight.
1B – Matt Davidson (CWS) – $4,100 vs. DET
Davidson has hit for home power against lefties this season than he has righties, but there’s no denying he has plenty of pop in that bat against righties as well with a .216 ISO against them on the season while he’s clubbed 15 of his 20 homers against righties as well. In fact, Davidson has hit a homer off of a right-hander in this series as he clubbed a two-run walk-off shot against the Tigers’ right-handed closer Shane Greene on Monday afternoon. He’s 9 for 19 with two homers, a double, four runs scored and seven RBI over his last five games. He’s also 2 for 6 (.333) with a double against Zimmermann, so let’s lock his power bat into this lineup tonight.
2B – David Fletcher (LAA) – $3,600 vs. TEX
Fletcher has seen his bat perk up as of late while he’s also been showcasing his stolen base upside recently, so I am going to kick off a three-man Angels stack with the youngster against right-hander Bartolo Colon tonight in the hitting-friendly confines of Globe Life Park in Arlington tonight. Fletcher has hit .301 against right-handers this season at the MLB level, but he also hit .350 with a huge .963 OPS against righties at Triple-A prior to his call up. The best thing I like about Fletcher tonight is he is projected to hit second in the lineup, one spot ahead of Mike Trout. Given that he’s 4 for 8 with a double and a stolen base over his last two games, I am going to extract some value out of the 24-year-old this evening.
3B – Yolmer Sanchez (CWS) – $3,800 vs. DET
I think we can also extract some value out of another player projected to hit second in the lineup in the form of Yolmer Sanchez. Sanchez brings a nice power/speed combination to the lineup tonight as he’s swatted all seven of his homers and 24 of his 27 doubles against right-handed pitching this season. He has also stolen nine of his 13 bases against righties. He owns a solid .746 OPS against righties this year, but I have a feeling that picks up against Zimmermann. In his career against the righty, Sanchez has gone 6 for 14 (.429) with two doubles and a triple to go along with a stolen base. I think his cost is more than reasonable given the power/speed upside, his history against Zimmermann and his spot in the lineup tonight.
SS – Andrelton Simmons (LAA) – $4,400 vs. TEX
Simmons also brings solid power/speed upside to the table in his matchup tonight, while he’s also enjoyed some serious success against Colon in their history against one another. Simmons has hit just four of his nine homers this season against righties, but also has hit all four of his triples and 19 of his 24 bases against righties on the season. He’s also stolen seven of his nine bases against right-hander. In his career against Colon, Simmons has gone 13 for 28 (.464) with two doubles and a triple, although he hasn’t stolen a base against the veteran. Still, I’ll take that production as part of a stack any time.
OF – Daniel Palka (CWS) – $4,200 vs. DET
Palka has flexed some big-time muscle in the big leagues after hitting for a ton of power in the minors, and he makes for a big home run threat tonight against Zimmermann. Against right-handers at the big league level this season, Palka has produced a huge .265 ISO to go along with a solid .781 OPS. That OPS is dragged down by a big 33.6% strikeout rate against righties, making him a boom-or-bust play, but as part of a stack and hitting out of the cleanup spot, I’ll take that power. It’s also nice to see that he is 2 for 6 with a homer already in his career against Zimmermann.
OF – Mike Trout (LAA) – $5,900 vs. TEX
There’s no doubt in my mind that I want to pay up for Trout in this matchup tonight considering the numbers he has put up against Colon. It’s interesting to see that Trout has hit for more power against righties than he has lefties this season thanks to a massive .305 ISO off of righties, but he has simply obliterated Colon in their history against each other. Trout has gone 11 for 20 (.550) with three homers, a double and a stolen base in his career against the super-vet. He’s a no-brainer tonight, especially as part of this three-man stack.
OF – Brandon Lowe (TB) – $3,200 vs. TOR
Lowe got off to a very poor start after his big league promotion, but he has been white-hot at the plate lately and I think he makes for an excellent play tonight against the struggling Aaron Sanchez. Sanchez has allowed 11 earned runs in two starts since coming off the DL, and Lowe has clubbed three homers and two doubles over his last six games. He’s also stole two bases over his last nine games. Lowe also hit righties for a huge 1.014 OPS at Triple-A prior to his call up, so I have no problem looking to extract value from the youngster in this matchup tonight.