After some real nice picks to open up the week on Tuesday, last night’s DraftKings MLB DFS Picks took a massive step back into cringe-worthy territory.
Michael Kopech had arguably the best matchup on the slate, and was promptly touched up for seven earned runs on nine hits against the Tigers. His night started by yielding a solo home run to the leadoff hitter, so that ended up being a sign of things to come for the right-hander.
Our second starter Nick Pivetta was not much better as he lasted only four innings while yielding two runs to the Marlins. Neither of our pitchers were able to take advantage of very favorable matchups.
Our top stack of the White Sox also let us down as Jordan Zimmermann, after being lit up by the Sox in their previous four meetings this season, stymied the home side last night as a single, a run scored and a pair of walks was all we received on this front.
Our Angels stack produced a little better, but Mike Trout didn’t even play. Still, David Fletcher and Andrelton Simmons combined to go 4 for 10 with a homer, a double, four RBI and three runs scored.
Lastly, our one-off outfielder Brandon Lowe singled and scored a run.
We will look for enormous improvement on tonight’s three-game main slate.
*Tonight’s lineup is aimed at GPPs*
P – Zack Greinke (ARI) – $9,100 vs. ATL
On a small slate I think I will lock down the most expensive arm in Greinke, a pitcher with some favorable splits for tonight’s matchup with the Braves. First, the D-backs are currently listed as -163 favorites by Vegas at the moment, and also encouraging is the fact that the Braves are projected to score a slate-low 3.5 runs in this matchup tonight. Greinke has a spun a tidy 2.97 ERA on the season, a number that drops to 2.16 at home as compared to his 3.76 mark on the road. I also really like the fact that Greinke hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in a home start since way back on June 13th against the Pirates, so I don’t see much reason to fade the veteran right-hander tonight.
P – Shane Bieber (CLE) – $8,000 vs. TOR
I like Bieber for many of the same reasons I like Greinke. The Indians are currently listed as -149 favorites in Toronto tonight while the Blue Jays’ 4.1 projected runs are the second-lowest mark on the slate. Bieber is due for some big-time positive regression as his 3.23 FIP and 3.38 xFIP are miles under his 4.66 ERA at the moment. Bieber also brings nice strikeout upside into this contest as he has struck out opposing hitters at a real nice 24.1% clip on the season while seven of his 15 starts this season have involved at least seven strikeouts. I think we are getting nice bang for our buck here.
C – Yan Gomes (CLE) – $3,400 vs. TOR
Gomes hits for much more power against lefties than he does righties this season, but he is going to be a part of a three-man Indians stack and the price is certainly right against a pitcher that sports a 5.02 ERA on the season. Gomes has still clubbed eight home runs this season against righties, 12 overall, and has also racked up 13 doubles on the campaign against same-handed pitching. He also has an .898 career OPS at the Rogers Centre in Toronto where he started his career, so I think we can get some cheap pop out of the catcher despite the unfavorable splits tonight.
1B – Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) – $5,000 vs. ATL
We are going to roll out a four-man D-backs stack tonight against Braves right-hander Anibal Sanchez, beginning here with MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt. Sanchez has had a nice year, but his FIP and xFIP are almost a full run above his ERA figure. Enter Goldschmidt who has also hit left-handers for more power than righties, but let’s no scoff at his powerful .236 ISO and .905 OPS on the season against right-handers. Goldschmidt also brings some decent stolen base upside with him tonight as he has swiped five bases on the season, all five of which have come against righties. He’s 3 for 8 in his career against Sanchez to boot, so let’s lock in the top first baseman on this tiny slate.
2B – Jason Kipnis (CLE) – $4,500 vs. TOR
Kipnis continues our three-man Indians stack tonight against the right-hander Gaviglio. He’s hit right-handers for a solid .153 ISO on the season while 11 of his 14 home runs and 18 of his 25 doubles this season have also come against righties. Kipnis is off to a hot start in September with a .267 ISO and .913 OPS for the month while he is 4 for 8 with a double, three RBI, a run scored and a stolen base over his last two games. Kipnis does bring some stolen base upside to the table here as he’s swiped seven bags on the year, all of which have come against righties. The price is a little high, but I don’t mind this play at all as part of a stack.
3B – Daniel Descalso (ARI) – $4,300 vs. ATL
Descalso has enjoyed a powerful season for the D-backs, but interestingly owns some reverse splits and has hit lefties for more power than righties. Still, he has hit righties for a rock-solid .193 ISO and .801 OPS on the campaign while 17 of his 18 doubles have also come against righties. He’s 3 for 8 with a homer, two runs and two RBI over his last three games as well, so September has also been kind to him as well. Let’s also keep in mind he owns a .200 ISO and .887 OPS at home against right-handers this season, so he’s a fairly easy play for me on a small slate.
SS – Eduardo Escobar (ARI) – $4,200 vs. ATL
Escobar has been a doubles machine this season with a whopping 45 of them while he’s also cracked 20 home runs, but the switch-hitting infielder has done more damage against righties than he has lefties this season. Entering play tonight, Escobar owns a huge .266 ISO and .872 OPS on the season against right-handed pitching. He too has been hot at the plate power-wise in September as he’s only 3 for 13 so far in the month, but with a homer and a double to go along with four runs scored in four games. He should provide some nice power upside tonight against a right-handed pitcher.
OF – Greg Allen (CLE) – $3,400 vs. TOR
Allen completes our three-man Indians stack against the right-hander Gaviglio. He hasn’t hit for much home run power this season with just two long balls in 245 plate appearances this season, but he brings real nice stolen base upside to the table with 14 steals in just 71 games this season. For what it’s worth, the left-handed Allen has essentially only hit right-handed pitching this season as he’s .251 off of righties with a .635 OPS as opposed to a .175 average and .350 OPS against lefties. He’s going to be a low-owned player despite the tiny slate, so let’s hope he can use his legs to notch us some value at this price.
OF – David Peralta (ARI) – $4,500 vs. ATL
Peralta has enjoyed a big season for the D-backs as he is hitting for more power than ever before in the 2018 campaign. Peralta has launched 26 home runs this season while he owns very impressive numbers against righties in the form of a .256 ISO and .958 OPS to go along with a .403 wOBA. He’s been a little quiet at the plate lately, but clearly I like his upside against a right-hander as he will technically lead off this stack out of the projected three-hole tonight for the D-backs against Sanchez.
OF – Billy McKinney (TOR) – $3,600 vs. CLE
The reason I noted GPP above is because I am rostering a player that is playing against one my pitchers in Shane Bieber. The hope here is that McKinney can perhaps hit a solo home run off of Bieber tonight and account for all the damage against the right-hander. On small slate, this move can certainly work for GPPs. After all, McKinney is hitting .348 with a .283 ISO and 1.067 OPS on the season against right-handed pitching, albeit in only 46 at-bats. Still, he’s projected to hit in the leadoff spot tonight and as mentioned, some low-cost power wouldn’t be the worst thing, even again one of our pitchers in GPP formats.