This week begins with a small five-game main slate on this Monday evening. The Coors Field effect will be in full gear tonight as evidenced by these picks, however there are some other matchups worth taking a look at in today’s DraftKings MLB picks.
P – Jacob deGrom (NYM) – $9,300 vs. PHI
deGrom will take the ball for the second start of his season tonight as the Mets taken on the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. In his first outing, deGrom hurled six scoreless frames with just two hits and a walk surrendered to go along with six strikeouts, but the Mets’ bullpen couldn’t hold the 1-0 lead and he missed out on the win as a result. He has an excellent shot to grab his first victory of the season tonight against the Phillies, a team that has not had any success against deGrom in the past. Only Cameron Rupp as an OPS over .714 against deGrom in his career, and that was due to one home run and one walk in seven plate appearances. deGrom boasts excellent strikeout potential tonight and should be backed by some strong offense in a favorable matchup for the Mets’ bats tonight.
P – Tyler Glasnow (PIT) – $7,500 vs. CIN
A low-cost pitcher, Glasnow has a solid matchup tonight at home against the Reds. Although this is just his fifth career MLB start and we are working with a small sample size, Glasnow has displayed strong strikeout ability with 9.26 K/9 across 23.1 big league innings last season. This comes after a history of elite strikeout numbers in the minor leagues, most recently crafting 10.89 K/9 over 110.2 innings in Triple-A last season. Active Reds’ hitters are just 3 for 13 with zero extra-base hits and a combined .564 OPS against Glasnow in his brief MLB career thus far.
C – Francisco Cervelli (PIT) – $3,000 vs. CIN
I had to go a little cheaper in the catcher’s spot today, but Cervelli is a very good hitter against left-handed pitching and that is what he will face tonight against Reds’ southpaw Brandon Finnegan. Cervelli is a career .310 hitter with an .809 OPS against lefties. He strikes out in just 16.4% of his at-bats against lefties with a strong 11.5% walk rate, showing some solid on-base ability on a Pirates team that should score some runs tonight against Finnegan and the Reds.
1B – Lucas Duda (NYM) – $3,600 vs. PHI
Duda will take his powerful left-handed cuts tonight against the right-handed offerings of Phillies’ starter Jerad Eickoff. Eickoff has surrendered 1.64 HR/9 to left-handed hitters in his big league career while Duda boasts a .223 ISO and .834 OPS against right-handed pitching. Duda projects to hit 7th in the Met’s lineup tonight, following a string of left-handed hitters that should provide him with plenty of base runners and therefore lots of RBI opportunities to go along with that home run upside.
2B – Neil Walker (NYM) – $3,600 vs. PHI
Walker, a switch-hitter, also projects very well for tonight’s tilt against Eickoff. Walker has crafted a solid .179 ISO and .793 OPS against righties in his career while clubbing 102 of his 116 career home runs against right-handers. He projects to hit fifth in the Mets lineup tonight, huddled right in with the other left-handed bats in this stack. Best of all is the upside Walker provides as one of the lowest priced second basemen on this slate.
SS – Trevor Story (COL) – $4,900 vs. SD
Now we get into the fun guys. Story takes his cuts tonight at Coors Field, or otherwise known as the hitter-friendliest ballpark the MLB has to offer. Better yet is the fact that Story will face Padres’ right-hander Jarred Cosart tonight, and interestingly right-handed bats do much more damage off of him than lefties do. In his career righties have crafted a .271 batting average against him compared to .223 to lefties, while righties struck out in just 12.4% of their at bats against him in his career. Cosart also has an elevated fly-ball rate against righties as well as an elevated hard hit rate, which is a very dangerous combo at this venue.
3B – Nolan Arenado (COL) – $5,300 vs. SD
This guy might be the most-owned guy on the slate tonight, but he should certainly not be faded. I outlined Cosart’s reverse splits above, and Arenado projects better than anyone in this matchup tonight. Arenado had a higher OPS (.951) and ISO (.289) against righties last season than he did lefties, giving us a solid double reverse splits situation here with one of the better hitters in the entire league.
OF – Curtis Granderson (NYM) – $3,900 vs. PHI
We are already well aware of the situation here. A left-handed power bat going up against a right-handed pitcher that surrenders plenty of home runs to lefties. Granderson’s ISO (.234) and OPS (.856) are miles better against right-handed pitching throughout his career and he should have an excellent shot to beat up on Eickoff tonight in the cleanup spot for the Mets.
OF – Wil Myers (SD) – $5,300 vs. COL
The lone Padre in this lineup, Myers should be able to do some damage tonight at Coors Field as well. He produced almost identical ISO figures against lefties and righties last season, and his mark of .201 against same-handed pitching is a very good one as he takes on righty Tyler Chatwood of the Rockies tonight. Chatwood has given up 1.33 HR/9 at home throughout his career against right-handed hitters compared to just 0.88 against lefties. That is an encouraging sign and it looks like we have another double reverse splits situation here with Myers against Chatwood.
OF – Jay Bruce (NYM) – $3,600 vs. PHI
To cap off this lineup will be the completion of my Mets stack. This stack should be lower owned than the Rockies’ stacks tonight, so some serious GPP success could be had if these guys can produce. Bruce boasts a career .232 ISO and .820 OPS against right-handed pitchers in his career, numbers which easily trump his figures against lefties. He, Duda, Walker and Granderson should combine for a formidable stack tonight at a much lower ownership than we will see in the Rockies stacks tonight.