gravatar

DraftKings MLB Picks – April 11th

We have a much larger slate this Tuesday evening than last night as we are set to take in ten games, doubling up on last night’s five-game slate. It’s nice to have an expanded draft board on tap tonight so let’s get right to it and see what this evening’s DraftKings MLB picks are going to look like.

P – Joe Musgrove (HOU) – $7,700 vs. SEA

Musgrove will make his second start of the season tonight which interestingly will also be his second start of the season against the Seattle Mariners. While Musgrove managed just five innings in his first start of the season, he limited the damage and held a good Mariners’ lineup to just two runs on five hits. Command was an issue for Musgrove in his first start, however he has held righties to just 1.51 BB/9 last season while producing a 1.07 WHIP against right-handed bats early in his MLB career, so his issue lies with left-handed hitters. His control woes aside, he pitches in the very spacious Safeco Field this evening which can limit some damage while Musgrove provides solid strikeout upside at a very reasonable price tonight.

P – Matt Harvey (NYM) – $8,300 vs. PHI

There were plenty of lingering questions about Matt Harvey after injuries and inconsistency have tormented him for the last couple of seasons, however he put those questions to rest with an excellent first start against the Braves last week. Harvey surrendered just two earned runs (both on Matt Kemp solo homers) while striking out four and walking none to start his season off with a win. Harvey was showing increased velocity and control, and he is a potential steal at these suppressed prices early in the season.

C – Sandy Leon (BOS) – $2,900 vs. BAL

Leon continues to be an undervalued catcher in the DFS circle, which is interesting considering the start to the season he has had. Leon has compiled a .368 average, a homer, five RBIs and an even 1.000 OPS so far this season, building on what was a breakout 2016 season for the veteran catcher. He will face the right-handed offerings of the Orioles’ Dylan Bundy tonight in Boston. Bundy had a strong first start of the season, however Leon is 2 for 5 with a homer in his career against the young righty, so he makes for a very solid play at a great price tonight.

1B – Kendrys Morales (TOR) – $3,700 vs. MIL

We have some interleague play on our hands tonight as the Blue Jays welcome the Milwaukee Brewers to town this evening. Morales will be hitting cleanup in the middle of a powerful Blue Jays’ lineup that hit the fourth most home runs at home in the AL last season while scoring the fourth-most runs at home as well. The Rogers Centre in Toronto is a hitter-friendly ballpark that plays small to all fields and Morales is coming off of a 30-homer, 93-RBI season with the Royals in a pitcher-friendly home park last season. He should be able to build on those numbers with the friendly hitting confines of the Rogers Centre this season.

2B – Devon Travis (TOR) – $3,800 vs. MIL

Considering Vegas has the Blue Jays pegged to score 5.2 runs today, it makes sense to have their leadoff hitter in this lineup. The right-handed hitting Travis actually has a higher career OPS against right-handed pitching than he does in his career against lefties, giving him a solid matchup tonight against Wily Peralta of the Brewers. Of course Travis benefits from the same hitting-friendly atmosphere that Morales does, and I am on board with a Toronto stack as a result.

3B – Nolan Arenado (COL) – $5,200 vs. SD

Speaking of hitting-friendly ballparks, Coors Field is in a league of its own. While the Rockies flopped last night at home against the Padres, redemption is a very distinct possibility against right-hander Jered Weaver of the Padres. Weaver has already given up two home runs to right-handed hitters in just 1.2 innings against them this season and many more home runs could come from both sides of the plate tonight at Coors. Arenado has an excellent .250 ISO in his career against righties at home, making him a very large power threat in tonight’s matchup.

SS – Troy Tulowitzki (TOR) – $3,900 vs. MIL

Continuing with this Blue Jays stack is shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, who happens to come with a nice price tag as well. While he is better against lefties, Tulo comes with a .202 ISO and career .837 OPS against right-handers as well. He has a .308 average and .855 OPS against Peralta in his career and will likely hit directly behind Morales in what could be a low-owned stack tonight with GPP upside to boot.

OF – Bryce Harper (WAS) – $5,000 vs. STL

It appears Bryce Harper has put a disappointing 2016 campaign behind him as he has come out of the gates swinging with a .385 average, two homers, eight RBIs and a 1.154 OPS so far this season. He will take on Cardinals’ righty Lance Lynn tonight, and while Lynn had a solid first start to the season, he is considerably worse to lefties than righties in his career, making Harper a solid standalone play tonight. Lynn has a career 4.56 FIP and 4.78 xFIP in his career against lefties compared to a 2.45 FIP and 2.88 xFIP in his career against righties. Harper has a solid opportunity here to take advantage of those gaudy splits.

OF – Carlos Gonzalez (COL) – $5,000 vs. SD

Gonzalez has gotten off to a slow start this season, however I fully expect the Rockies to beat up on Weaver today and having Gonzalez in the three-hole right in front of Arenado is a good spot to be if that takes place. Gonzalez has a career .252 ISO and .920 OPS against righties compared to just a .179 ISO and .749 OPS against lefties. Furthermore, his career .314 ISO and 1.049 OPS at home against righties is all the more reason to love CarGo for tonight’s contest at Coors Field.

OF – Jose Bautista (TOR) – $4,500 vs. MIL

Bautista’s price has come down a little from opening day, however I believe he has a great opportunity to produce this evening. His splits are just slightly worse against righties than lefties, however his splits at home easily trump his road splits. Bautista has a career .249 ISO and .892 OPS at home and a very solid .245 ISO and .879 OPS at home against righties. He makes for a solid play with plenty of home run upside hitting right in the middle of this Toronto stack.