DraftKings MLB Picks – August 11th

Last night's lineup wasn't the best as our bats simply didn't stand up to the rest of the slate. James Paxton didn't have a great night, giving up three earned runs with six strikeouts over 6.1 innings while Yu Darvish was the brightest spot with his ten punchouts over just five innings, however he also came down with a win. Outside of a couple players, there wasn't much value reached with the bats, but let's correct that issue for tonight's jam-packed slate! P - Rich Hill (LAD) - $12,200 vs. SD After dealing with a pesky blister closer to the beginning of the season, Hill has turned it on as of late and become a top-tier fantasy arm in the process. Hill has allowed more than one earned run in just two of his last 6 starts and more than 2 runs just once in that stretch, coming in last start against the Mets where yielded three earned runs on three solo homers. Hill enters play tonight with a 28.3% strikeout clip on the season and faces one of the league's most strikeout prone offenses as well. As a team, the Padres have struck out in 28% if their at-bats against a southpaw this season. With Hill racking up at least eight strikeouts in five of his last six starts this is a good opportunity to keep the punchouts rolling against a weak Padres' offense. P - Jimmy Nelson (MIL) - $9,900 vs. CIN Speaking of guys on a roll, Nelson has quietly been one of the league's top arms as of late. He has given up more than three earned runs just once in his last eight starts and more than two in just two those eight starts. He's also racked up 26 strikeouts over his last 21 innings and now sports a quality 27.3% strikeout clip on the season. In his last start against the Reds, Nelson tossed seven innings of two-run ball to go along with 11 strikeouts. He also held the Reds to just a single earned run with five strikeouts across seven innings in an April start against his divisional rival. He makes for an elite second starting pitcher on tonight's slate. C - Austin Barnes (LAD) - $3,300 vs. SD The Dodgers are facing a lefty again tonight and you know what that means: Dodgers stack with plenty of value to be had. The stack begins here with Barnes who had an RBI hit in last night's contest and enters play with a .278 ISO, .900 OPS and a .387 wOBA against southpaw pitching. He is posting these impressive figures despite a low .250 BABIP against lefties, so perhaps we haven't seen the best of Barnes yet considering he appears to have been on the unlucky side so far. Regardless, he makes for a very high-upside play with plenty of value tonight. 1B - Rhys Hoskins (PHI) - $2,500 vs. NYM This pick has a lot to do with the fact that Mets' right-hander has been reverse-splits this season and yielded a 2.50Hr/9 clip and a .358 wOBA against righties on the road this season while pitching to a 5.80 FIP as well. However, this pick has more to do with the fact Hoskins provides (in my opinion) the top value on the slate at his price and considering his gaudy stats in the minors the last couple of seasons. Hoskins hit Double-A pitching to a .943 OPS and 38 homers in 2016 and hit Triple-A pitching to a .966 OPS, .419 wOBA and has belted 29 long balls at the minor's highest level this season. Lock this guy into your lineup as he oozes with value tonight. 2B - Logan Forsythe (LAD) - $3,400 vs. SD Same story here with Forsythe as with Barnes. We have the lefty-mashing Forsythe knocking southpaws around to the tune of a .941 OPS and a .410 wOBA entering play tonight. Clayton Richard is yielding a .396 wOBA to righties on the road this season go to along with a 1.90 HR/9 clip and a 5.84 FIP as well. This is an excellent matchup for Forsythe who is a career 4 for 4 against Richard with two walks as well for a cool 1.000 OBP against the southpaw in six plate appearances. 3B - Justin Turner (LAD) - $4,600 vs. SD Turner will technically lead off this strack tonight out of the three-hole for the Dodgers. After being a reverse-splits hitter in 2016, Turner is mashing lefties this season to an outrageous .360 ISO, 1.258 OPS and a .513 wOBA. Like Forsythe, Turner has hit Richard very well in his career with a .500 avg. (7 for 14) with a homer and a walk as well. This is the straw that stirs this stack's drink. SS - Kike Hernandez (LAD) - $3,300 vs. SD The last man up this stack is the lefty-mashing Hernandez. He provided last night's lineup with a three-run double and I am expecting similar if not more production from the shortstop/outfielder tonight. Hernandez now sports a .360 ISO, .981 OPS and a .399 wOBA on the season against left-handed pitching. One of these nights Dave Roberts is going to give someone like Cody Bellinger the night off against a lefty and Hernandez will bat cleanup, with tonight being a possibility and one that would make him one of the most attractive players on the slate. OF - Nick Williams (PHI) - $3,500 vs. NYM The nice thing about Williams is that he hits righties very well and he should form a nice, lower owned mini-stack with Hoskins tonight. Williams owns a .212 ISO, .845 OPS and a .353 wOBA against righties this season. He's also hitting the ball very hard with a 43.8% hard contact rate and hits in a very home run-friendly environment at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. OF - Kyle Schwarber (CHC) - $3,800 vs. ARI Arizona is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league, Kyle Schwarber mashes right-handed pitching and Taijuan Walker gives up plenty of home runs, especially at home. This is a perfect recipe for some home run upside for Schwarber as he has hit righties to a .297 ISO, .880 OPS and a .367 wOBA in the second half of the season, putting behind him what was a dreadful couple of months early in the season. Walker has yielded a .366 wOBA and a 2.18 HR/9 clip at home this season against left-handed hitters, giving Schwarber plenty of upside at a reasonable price tonight. Adam Lind (WAS) - $3,400 vs. SF After registering a minimal contribution in last night's game, Lind has the opportunity to exceed value again tonight against right-hander Chris Stratton of the Giants. Lind's .225 ISO, .884 OPS and .366 wOBA on the season against his platoon advantage tonight is worthy of a cost much higher than $3,400, so we will take this and run as the first baseman/outfielder's team has the highest implied run total on the slate. Just keep in mind there is some weather concern with this play so keep an eye to make sure he makes it into the starting lineup!

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