Last night’s lineup was a solid one as our main stack of the Reds came through with flying colors. A five-run first inning was punctuated by a grand slam from outfielder Scott Schebler while Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett and Zack Cozart all had big nights at the plate. Luke Weaver once again delivered for us with 5.2 innings of two-run ball to go along with ten strikeouts. We had two poor outings in the lineup, one from Matt Moore and one from Salvador Perez, but aside from that last night’s picks came through. Let’s make it two good nights in a row on tonight’s nine-game slate.
P – Jose Berrios (MIN) – $10,100 vs. CWS
Tonight’s pitching board isn’t too deep and I am a firm believer in a Robbie Ray fade so let’s go ahead and make Berrios the top pitcher on the night. After striking out 16 batters over his last 12.1 innings, Berrios’ strikeout rates are back to his season norm as he takes on a White Sox lineup that sports a 25% strikeout rate and a .295 wOBA against righties over the last month as per their projected lineup. It’s also worth noting that Berrios has been much better at home (2.92 FIP) than he has been on the road (4.97 FIP) this season so it’s clear the matchup is a good one tonight for the Twins’ rookie right-hander.
P – Jason Vargas (KC) – $6,900 vs. TB
Vargas doesn’t stand out as a pitcher you must roster with an 18.2% strikeout rate this season, however he faces a Rays’ offense that struggles mightily against left-handed pitching. Tampa Bay’s projected lineup has a .296 wOBA and a 25% K-rate against lefties on the season and a .268 wOBA and 26.5% K-rate over the last month against lefties. Things get even better in the strikeout department for Vargas if the Rays stack righties against him as his 22.4% K-rate to righties over the last month trumps his 16.7% K-rate against lefties over the last month.
C – Austin Barnes (LAD) – $3,300 vs. ARI
By now you should know the Dodgers face a lefty when Barnes is the first position player you see in this lineup. I mentioned earlier I am fading Robbie Ray and that’s because I am targeting him with Dodgers. The Dodgers simply mash lefties and that is the case for Barnes as well. Entering play tonight he owns a .262 ISO and .904 OPS against lefties this season and that fits well with the 5.14 FIP and 1.61 HR/9 clip Ray surrenders to righties at home this season.
1B – Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) – $5,200 vs. LAD
Ray isn’t the only lefty that I will be targeting in this game as Hyun-Jin Ryu takes the mound for the Dodgers tonight. Interestingly, Ryu is a reverse splits pitcher and is worse to lefties, but I will be looking at a couple of lefty-mashers for the D-Backs tonight regardless beginning here with Goldschmidt. Goldy sports a .248 ISO and 1.018 OPS on the season against left-handed pitching and is a career 8 for 19 (.421) against Ryu with a homer and two doubles for a 1.134 OPS.
2B – Brian Dozier (MIN) – $5,000 vs. CWS
Another mini-stack to be deployed here and another left-hander to be targeted with the lefty-clobbering Brian Dozier. Dozier and the Twins will take on White Sox lefty Derek Holland tonight who owns a 7.43 FIP and a 2.93 HR/9 rate on the road against righties. Dozier will be licking his lips in this matchup tonight as he owns a .250 ISO and .987 OPS on the season against left-handed pitching and has a homer against Holland in 14 career at-bats against the lefty.
3B – Justin Turner (LAD) – $4,100 vs. ARI
Turner’s price is lower than I expected tonight, likely because Robbie Ray is the priciest pitcher and therefore DraftKings’ top pitcher tonight. That said, Turner’s numbers certainly cannot be ignored against left-handed pitching. Turner sports a .388 batting average, .339 ISO, 1.210 OPS and a .495 wOBA against lefties this season and has struck out in just 8.2% of his at-bats against lefties. At this price I’m just not sure how you can fade those numbers.
SS – Eduardo Escobar (MIN) – $3,800 vs. CWS
Escobar and Dozier should form a fine mini-stack tonight against the lefty Holland. After all, Escobar’s six homers off of lefties this season matches Dozier while he sports an impressive .831 OPS and .350 wOBA against lefties on the campaign. He should hit in the cleanup sport or close to it tonight so look for some RBI opportunities from the infielder tonight.
OF – J.D. Martinez (ARI) – $4,700 vs. LAD
Martinez and Goldschmidt are likely to hit side by side tonight and form one of the top duos on the slate in my opinion. Martinez has been one of, if not the best hitter in all of baseball against lefties this season thanks to his .406 average, .563 ISO, 1.469 OPS and .575 wOBA against opposite-handed pitching. He also has a 1.068 OPS and seven homers in only 55 at-bats this season at his new home park at Chase Field in Arizona.
OF – Kike Hernandez (LAD) – $3,400 vs. ARI
Hernandez is a staple in these lineups against left-handed pitching for two reasons. First, he sports a massive .361 ISO, .984 OPS and a .401 wOBA against lefties this season. Second, he continues to be more than reasonably priced. Some more good news in this matchup comes in the form of Hernandez clobbering Ray in their previous history. Hernandez is 7 for 20 (.350) with three homers, a double and a triple against the lefty for a 1.408 OPS and .560 wOBA.
OF – Brandon Nimmo (NYM) – $3,500 vs. CIN
Nimmo and the Mets are likely to go overlooked tonight despite facing one of the worst pitchers on the slate in Homer Bailey. Bailey has been destroyed at home this season and owns an 8.27 FIP and a 2.89 HR/9 clip at home against lefties this season. Nimmo has done a nice job atop the Mets’ lineup since being placed there recently and owns an .824 OPS and .363 wOBA on the season against right-handed pitching. Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati certainly favors the long ball so look for Nimmo to do some low-owned damage tonight against Bailey.