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DraftKings MLB Picks – July 25th

It was a pretty solid start to the week last night as both pitchers delivered solid efforts while the lineup picks were mostly of the productive variety. Zack Greinke pitched eight innings en route to a victory while Justin Verlander went seven strong with nine punchouts to boot. Joc Pederson, Alex Avila and Bradley Zimmer all come through with solid evenings and hopefully you were able to use some of these picks to get into the cash. Let’s see what tonight’s 14-game slate has in store!

P – Charlie Morton (HOU) – $8,800 vs. PHI

Pitching is rather thin today and without a clear-cut top arm, so we will go with some value beginning here with Morton. The veteran has increased his fastball velocity to upwards of 96 MPH on average this year and it has helped him accumulate a 25.5% strikeout clip on the season. The Phillies as a team are around a 26% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching to go along with a .713 team OPS against righties, good for a share of 26th in the league. Morton certainly has the upside required tonight.

P – Jacob Faria (TB) – $8,500 vs. BAL

Faria hasn’t displayed the same massive strikeout clip he crafted in the minors this season as he sports a 22.3% rate in the MLB compared to a 32.7% clip at Triple-A, however he also owns a tidy 2.52 ERA in eight big league starts this season. That said, his strikeout clip increases to a 25.6% mark against right-handed hitters and could see as many as seven of them against an Orioles team that can certainly be prone to the strikeout. He also gets the pitching-friendly confines of Tropicana Field as his venue this evening.

C – Matt Wieters (WAS) – $2,900 vs. MIL

While Wieters isn’t having a great season against right-handed pitching, he fits in today’s top stack which is the Nationals. Washington will take on right-hander Zach Davies who sports a 1.50 HR/9 clip and an ugly 5.98 FIP to left-handed hitters on the road this season. Wieters has just a .652 OPS on the season against righties but will be a low-owned option in a good matchup against Davies tonight.

1B – Lucas Duda (NYM) – $4,100 vs. SD

While he is a standalone play, Duda is in a position to succeed tonight against right-hander Jhoulys Chacin. Chacin is a better pitcher at home, but he still has a 4.94 FIP and 5.65 xFIP at home against lefties. Enter Duda who sports a large .302 ISO and .923 OPS on the season against right-handed pitching and is 3 for 6 with two homers and a double against Chacin in his career. Another low-owned player in a nice matchup tonight.

2B – Daniel Murphy (WAS) – $4,700 vs. MIL

The highest owned player on the slate tonight could very well be Jose Altuve, so we will pivot to Murphy here for GPP purposes. Besides, considering Davies’ lackluster numbers against lefties it can be argued that Murphy, who is hitting right-handed pitching to a .250 ISO and .987 OPS on the season is in just as good, if not a better matchup as the chalk play at second base tonight.

3B – Jake Lamb (ARI) – $5,300 vs. ATL

Lamb has been tearing the cover off the baseball lately and is in another great spot tonight against Braves’ right-hander Mike Foltynewicz. Foltynewicz sports a 2.20 HR/9 clip and a 5.24 FIP on the road against left-handed bats as well as an elevated 46.7% fly ball rate to lefties on the road. These numbers could get him into trouble tonight with Lamb who sports a .307 ISO and 1.036 OPS on the season against righties and will be taking his cuts in one of the league’s most hitting-friendly environments at Chase Field in Arizona.

SS – Tim Beckham (TB) – $2,600 vs. BAL

Shortstop was the final position to fill in tonight and is a relatively thin position today but I will roll with Beckham against left-hander Wade Miley. Miley sports a 1.99 HR/9 clip and a 6.10 FIP on the road to right-handed hitters this season. Beckham sports a decent .696 OPS on the season to lefties, but he is also making hard contact 37.5% of the time against lefties, certainly an encouraging figure considering Miley’s numbers to right-handed hitters away from home this season.

OF – Bryce Harper (WAS) – $5,600 vs. MIL

Harper is clearly a solid play more often than not, but he is in an elite matchup tonight against Davies. While I already touched on Davies, Harper sports a .351 ISO and a 1.159 OPS on the season against right-handed pitching. He has 22 homers and 17 doubles against righties this season so let’s look for more of the same from the superstar outfielder tonight.

OF – David Peralta (ARI) – $4,500 vs. ATL

Forming a nice mini-stack with Lamb is outfielder David Peralta. Peralta has been crushing right-handed pitching this season to the tune of a .323/.374/.496 slash line including eight home runs and 18 doubles. He is also hitting the ball hard 36.4% of the time against righties and has posted a .225 ISO and .939 OPS on the season against righties at home. Very nice play here.

OF – Derek Fisher (HOU) – $3,000 vs. PHI

Fisher has plenty of value to provide this lineup with should he continue to hit right-handed pitching as well as he has in the minors this season. While Phillies’ righty Nick Pivetta has been worse to right-handed hitters this season, the left-handed swinging Fisher posted a massive .996 ISO with 16 home runs against right-handed pitching so far at Triple-A this season. Not many players on the slate provide the same value upside as the young outfielder does tonight.

1 Comment on “DraftKings MLB Picks – July 25th
  1. Brutal night last night overall for the industry, but nice pitching calls and sweet pick with Beckham. Fisher was a solid pick, as well. The Nationals were a bunch of turds.

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