Last night’s lineup had some very good picks in it, however was also on the frustrating side as well. As expected, the Padres managed to score some runs (seven) against the Mets and rookie starter Chris Flexen last night, however the players in our lineup simply weren’t involved. Hector Sanchez didn’t end up starting, however if you replaced him with a productive catcher you had a good chance at cashing. Both pitchers delivered stellar efforts with Zack Godley going seven scoreless innings with seven strikeouts while Jon Lester pitched seven innings of two run ball with four punchouts. Kyle Schwarber had a mammoth night with two homers, a triple, two runs and four RBIs. Hopefully you were able to use the good picks and get into the cash! Let’s finish off the week on a strong note on tonight 15-game slate!
P – Robbie Ray (ARI) – $9,400 vs. STL
Robbie Ray on the road is a thing of beauty. While his ERA at home sits at 4.87 and his FIP at 4.97, his ERA on the road sits at a sparkling 1.51 while the FIP sits at 2.92. While the FIP does suggest some regression, it’s not major and when we factor in his 30.7% strikeout clip we really have something to work with here. The Cardinals aren’t a bad team against left-handed pitching, but it’s tough to top Ray’s strikeout upside, especially when we consider his work away from the hitting friendly confines of Chase Field.
P – Danny Salazar (CLE) – $9,500 vs. CWS
Salazar has certainly had a volatile season in 2017, however his return to the rotation was a roaring success his last time out. He tossed seven scoreless innings of one-hit ball while racking up eight strikeouts against the Blue Jays. That is the Salazar we have come to know when he is at his best. Tonight he will face a watered down White Sox offense that ranks 28th with a .709 OPS against right-handed pitching this season as well as sporting a 24.5% strikeout clip to righties as well, a matchup that Salazar can thrive in once again tonight.
C – Russell Martin (TOR) – $3,400 vs. LAA
Although Martin and the Blue Jays were mowed down by Salazar recently, they have a nice matchup tonight with Angels’ right-hander Parker Bridwell. Bridwell is on the borderline of being a reverse-splits pitcher that sports a 1.99 HR/9 clip and a 5.23 FIP to right-handed hitters this season. Martin enters play tonight with a solid .166 ISO, .770 OPS and a .341 wOBA on the season against right-handed pitching, numbers that certainly justify a play at this price considering he projects to hit second in the order tonight for the Jays.
1B – Chris Davis (BAL) – $3,800 vs. TEX
This is the play where I believe we have the most value in the lineup. Chris Davis and the Orioles will take on right-hander Andrew Cashner of the Rangers tonight in what will be a game played in 100 degree heat tonight. Considering Cashner sports a 2.12 HR/9 and a 7.09 FIP at home this season against left-handed bats and Davis sports a .275 ISO and 44.9% hard hit rate to right-handed pitching this season we have a very, very solid play here at a ridiculously low price tag.
2B – Rougned Odor (TEX) – $3,800 vs. BAL
Although I still believe Davis has the most value, Odor carries plenty with him tonight as well. Orioles’ righty Chris Tillman has struggled all season long and sports a 7.09 FIP and a 1.69 HR/9 clip to lefties on the road this season. Enter Odor who sports a .243 ISO and 38.7% hard hit rate against right-handed pitching this season and also sports a .243 BABIP to righties that should rise along with his OPS moving forward.
3B – Adrian Beltre (TEX) – $4,500 vs. BAL
While Tillman has been bad to lefties, he’s actually been very bad to righties too, especially in the home run department. Tillman owns a 2.60 HR/9 overall to righties but that figure increases to 3.60 HR/9 on the road to righties. Beltre has been swinging a hot bat lately and sports a .276 ISO, .930 OPS and a 38% hard hit rate against righties this season. Roll with the veteran as he approaches the 3,000 hit milestone.
SS – Kike Hernandez (LAD) – $3,600 vs. SF
A standalone play, Hernandez simply mashes left-handed pitching which is what he will see tonight against the Giants’ Matt Moore. Although Moore has been reverse splits this season and worse to lefties, that doesn’t change the fact that Hernandez sports a massive .409 ISO and 1.054 OPS on the season against left-handed pitching, figures that make him a steal at this price tonight.
OF – Nomar Mazara (TEX) – $3,900 vs. BAL
Let the Rangers’ stack roll here with the young outfielder Mazara. He has a solid .191 ISO and .789 OPS on the season against right-handed pitching and recently busted out of a seven-game hitless streak and has now gone 4 for 10 with a double over his last two contests. The talent is there for the left-handed slugger and tonight in this heat could be a good time to get the power stroke going against a subpar pitcher in Tillman.
OF – Shin-Soo Choo (TEX) – $4,300 vs. BAL
The leadoff hitter tonight, Choo has some serious upside against Tillman this evening. He actually has extremely similar numbers to righties than Mazara does, however Choo has made very hard contact this season against righties to the tune of a 40.4% hard hit rate. Nonetheless, the reasoning for all of these Rangers is similar in their superb power upside in hitting-friendly conditions tonight at Globe Life Park in Texas.
OF – Jose Bautista (TOR) – $3,800 vs. LAA
Forming a nice mini-stack with Martin tonight is the Jays’ projected leadoff hitter in Bautista. He has been a reverse splits hitter this season and sports a solid .193 ISO, .778 OPS and .335 wOBA on the season against righties and has recorded a double in each of his last three games. The Blue Jays are implied to score over five runs tonight so grabbing their on-base-machine leadoff hitter is a good idea at a nice price.