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DraftKings MLB Picks – July 31st

Welcome to a fresh week of MLB DFS! Monday night gets us started with an eight-game slate so let’s get the week started in the right direction!

P – Charlie Morton (HOU) – $10,600 vs. TB

All the sudden the Astros have pitching problems, but Morton is not one they have had to worry about. In fact, the right-hander has been one of the most reliable hurlers they have had all season long despite injuries as he most recently tossed seven shutout frames with nine strikeouts last week against the Phillies. The hard-throwing veteran now sports an impressive 26.1% strikeout clip on the season to go along with a solid 3.83 ERA and 3.95 FIP across 14 starts.

P – Danny Duffy (KC) – $8,900 vs. BAL

Speaking of reliable, Duffy enters tonight’s game in Baltimore sporting a nice 3.56 ERA and 3.44 FIP across 16 starts this season. What’s better, Duffy hasn’t allowed a home run in three straight starts, two in which he allowed just a single earned run. There is some caution here for cash games as Duffy has been worse on the road this season where he will be tonight in Baltimore and his strikeout numbers are down from last season, but Baltimore hasn’t hit left-handed pitching all that well in 2017 and Duffy sports plenty of value at this price tonight.

C – Bruce Maxwell (OAK) – $2,700 vs. SF

While the A’s might go overlooked on tonight’s slate, we have to keep in mind the work Giants’ right-hander Matt Cain has put in on the road this season. Work that includes a 2.70 HR/9 rate and an 8.76 FIP to left-handed hitters on the road. Maxwell is a sneaky play at a bargain rate as he sports a decent .727 OPS and .327 wOBA against righties this season but also sports an elevated 37.1% hard hit rate against them as well.

1B – Kendrys Morales (TOR) – $4,000 vs. CWS

The Blue Jays are a team in an excellent spot against White Sox right-hander James Shields tonight, however Shields has been notably worse to lefties so let’s roll with the switch-hitting Morales in this spit. Morales has crafted a .195 ISO and 37.6% hard hit rate against righties this season and considering Shields sports a 9.58 FIP to lefties this is undoubtedly a good spot for the veteran. Justin Smoak is probably the better cash play here but roll with the lower owned Morales for GPPS.

2B – Jed Lowrie (OAK) – $3,600 vs. SF

The A’s stack continues here with Lowrie who has had a resurgent campaign in 2017. He has put together a .185 ISO, .804 OPS and a .344 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season, numbers that increase to .221, .843 and .356 respectively against righties at home. He is a great play at a very reasonable price tonight.

3B – Mike Moustakas (KC) – $4,300 vs. BAL

Of course Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are getting huge attention for their home run numbers on the season, but do you know who ranks third on that list? Moustakas has blasted 30 long balls this season, perhaps the quietest 30 homers I have ever seen. He takes on right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez tonight who sports a 7.07 FIP and a 2.98 HR/9 clip this season against left-handed hitters so let’s roll with Moustakas and his .304 ISO and .911 OPS against righties at the third base spot tonight.

SS – Marcus Semien (OAK) – $4,300 vs. SF

Semien’s sample sizes are very limited this season thanks to an injury that required a 60-day DL stint, however this guy has a solid power/speed combination that fits nicely in this A’s stack. In 2016, he hit righties to a solid .176 ISO but also stolen ten bases overall and seven against righties. He should hit in the two-hole against Cain tonight so he should see plenty of at-bats tonight in this matchup.

OF – Khris Davis (OAK) – $4,600 vs. SF

Of course my highest hopes tonight in this stack are for Khris Davis. Davis has huge power to all fields and matches up quite well no matter the opposing pitcher. Considering he is facing a home run-prone pitcher he is a must in this lineup. He is actually a better power hitter against right-handed pitching as he sports a .330 ISO and .886 OPS on the season to righties, numbers that make him the top player in this A’s stack today.

OF – Nelson Cruz (SEA) – $3,900 vs. TEX

Roster Nelson Cruz while he is still at a huge discount. Left-hander Cole Hamels sports a 5.20 FIP to right-handed hitters this season, and considering Cruz sports a .813 OPS and a 37.9% hard contact rate against lefties we have to like what we see here. Cruz is overall having a down season despite high RBI totals, but the power is most certainly there and should play well in the hitting-friendly confines of Globe Life Park tonight.

OF – Leury Garcia (CWS) – $2,700 vs. TOR

The last roster spot tonight goes to Garcia who boasts plenty of value, especially if he remains in the leadoff spot where is currently projected to hit tonight. Garcia sports a .224 ISO and .855 OPS on the season against right-handed pitching which is what he will face tonight against the Blue Jays’ Marco Estrada. Estrada has struggled with the home run ball all season long and sports elevated fly ball rates all around so lock in the White Sox projected leadoff hitter and enjoy the cost savings!

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