gravatar

DraftKings MLB Picks – July 5th

Last night’s lineup didn’t fare too well as outside of Corey Kluber’s dominant eight-inning effort it was pretty much a down night. The Rangers simply could not get to David Price which sunk our lineup from the get go. Let’s look for some improvement on tonight’s 12-game slate!

P – Alex Wood (LAD) – $11,600 vs. ARI

Clayton Kershaw flirted with a no hitter against the Diamondbacks a night ago and things don’t figure to get much easier for them tonight against co-ace Alex Wood. Wood has been one of the biggest pitching surprises this season as he enters play sporting a 1.83 ERA, 2.12 FIP and a whopping 30.2% strikeout clip on the season. Arizona’s offense takes a steep drop down on the road as they have scored the third fewest runs on the road while striking out in 27.6% of their at-bats against lefties this season. Look for Wood to continue his breakout season tonight.

P – Trevor Bauer (CLE) – $7,300 vs. SD

We will target the Padres for the second straight night tonight, this time with right-hander Trevor Bauer. After striking out ten times against Kluber last night, the Padres now have a sky-high 28.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Trevor Bauer sports a very nice 25.7% strikeout rate on the season while his FIP of 4.17 and xFIP of 3.72 suggest some notable positive regression coming from his 5.24 ERA. Tonight is a nice opportunity for that positive regression to kick in against a Padres’ team that ranks 28th in the MLB with a .696 team OPS versus right-handed pitching.

C – Jason Castro (MIN) – $3,300 vs. LAA

The Twins will see right-hander Parker Bridwell on the mound tonight and that is a good thing for their left-handed bats. Bridwell owns a 4.15 HR/9 and 10.77 FIP against left-handed hitters on the road this season, albeit in a small sample size. He’s also been hit hard by lefties in the minors this season so some Twins’ lefty exposure is due here. Castro sports a solid .174 ISO and a .704 OPS on the season against righties and also owns a high 38.5% hard contact rate against them. He is a very nice play at a bargain price tonight.

1B – Mitch Moreland (BOS) – $3,900 vs. TEX

Things could get ugly for the Rangers for the second night in a row tonight. After Yu Darvish was hit hard last night, the Rangers will send righty Andrew Cashner to the mound who owns a 2.45 HR/9, 7.52 FIP and a 6.52 FIP at home this season against left-handed bats. Let’s get Moreland and his team-leading .225 ISO against righties into this lineup as he also sports an .855 OPS and another team-leading 44.1% hard contact rate against lefties.

2B – Jason Kipnis (CLE) – $3,700 vs. SD

The theme of the lineup seems to be targeting right-handed pitchers who struggle to left-handed hitters and that continues here with Kipnis against Padres’ right-hander Luis Perdomo. Perdomo owns a 5.07 FIP overall against lefties but it increases to 6.05 on the road. Kipnis isn’t having his best season, but he still owns a solid .162 ISO against righties and has a low .261 BABIP against righties, something that should climb moving forward. He should also get plenty of at-bats tonight out of the leadoff spot for the Indians.

3B – Manny Machado (BAL) – $3,500 vs. MIL

While Matt Garza’s FIP is better against righties than it is lefties, he is giving up 1.86 HR/9 to righties at home this season, so let’s fire up the right-handed Manny Machado. Machado sports a nice .194 ISO against righties, but his .677 OPS against them is being dogged by a very low .217 BABIP against them. Keep in mind Miller Park in Milwaukee is also one of the league’s hitter-friendliest venues so I will gladly take the powerful Machado at what I believe is a discount.

SS – Francisco Lindor (CLE) – $4,100 vs. SD

Forming a nice little mini-stack with Kipnis is shortstop Francisco Lindor. Lindor is having some bad luck himself this season with a very low .220 BABIP against them, but he also owns a .208 ISO as I expect him to improve on his two stolen bases this season against righties. Like Kipnis, Lindor should benefit from hitting near the top of the lineup tonight and in front of the powerful heart of the Cleveland lineup.

OF – Domingo Santana (MIL) – $4,200 vs. BAL

The Orioles’ will sent left-hander Jayson Aquino to the mound tonight and considering how hard he has been hit in limited MLB time this season let’s roll with Domingo Santana. Santana has clobbered lefties to the tune of a .250 ISO and .889 OPS to go along with a 41.1% hard hit rate against them as well. Given the aforementioned hitting-friendly atmosphere of Miller Park some Brewers’ exposure is a good idea tonight.

OF – Andrew Benintendi (BOS) – $4,200 vs. TEX

Benintendi has an absolutely monstrous game last night, so he is likely to be a high owned player but I believe he will be worth the ownership against Cashner and his poor numbers to lefties. After clubbing two homers last night, the rookie is up to a .199 ISO and an .857 OPS against right-handed pitching. He also owns a 39.3% hard hit rate against them too which clearly helps the lefty in the hot temperatures at the hitting-friendly environment of Globe Life Park in Texas.

OF – Max Kepler (MIN) – $4,000 vs. LAA

Forming a mini-stack with Castro is the left-handed swinging Max Kepler. Kepler is the owner of a .227 ISO and an .892 OPS against right-hander pitching this season as well as a 38% hard hit rate against them. Considering Bridwell has been getting hit extremely hard this season, especially by lefties, Kepler makes for an excellent play in the cleanup spot for the Twins this evening.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *