With 50 home runs hit on last night’s MLB slate yesterday’s lineup certainly did not have enough of them to compete. Carlos Correa and Neil Walker did go yard and rookie Jacob Faria dominated the Blue Jays, but other than that yesterday’s lineup simply wasn’t good enough to compete. Let’s turn things around on tonight’s 11-game slate!
P – Francisco Liriano (TOR) – $5,800 vs. TB
Marco Estrada was roughed up by the Rays in last night’s game, but I believe we have some serious value tonight with Liriano. Liriano has a strikeout rate over 35% to left-handed hitters and a FIP of 0.82 against lefties this season, therefore limiting a couple of Tampa’s best hitters in Corey Dickerson and Logan Morrison. Tampa Bay also leads the MLB with 213 strikeouts against lefties this season while their team .683 OPS against lefties ranks 26th. For good measure Liriano also has a solid 8.33 K/9 against righties this season, making him an excellent GPP play tonight.
P – Mike Leake (STL) – $6,800 vs. MIL
Another value pitcher with high strikeout upside tonight is Cardinals’ right-hander Mike Leake. There is no doubt the Brewers boast lots of power up and down their lineup, but they too are extremely strikeout prone. Milwaukee has racked up 450 strikeouts against right-handers this season, which is the fourth most in the MLB. Enter Leake who has an 8.77 K/9 clip against righties this season as he should face six of them tonight. He also has an excellent 2.88 FIP to righties, making him a nice play at a low cost tonight.
C – Gary Sanchez (NYY) – $5,000 vs. LAA
With these value pitchers in tonight’s lineup we are going to go for the kill with bats this evening. That begins here with Sanchez who faces a right-hander in Matt Shoemaker tonight who is giving up plenty of fly balls and home runs. Shoemaker has yielded a 1.74 HR/9 clip to righties this season to go along with an ugly 5.29 FIP and a whopping 52% fly ball rate. Sanchez boasts a .262 ISO and a .913 OPS against righties this season, making him a very powerful play in this matchup.
1B – Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) – $5,400 vs. DET
The way Tigers’ right-hander Jordan Zimmermann has been giving up home runs this season they should hand out replica helmets in the bleachers at Comerica Park tonight. Zimmermann has yielded a 2.43 HR/9 to lefties and a 2.13 HR/9 to righties. Enter Goldschmidt who has destroyed right-handed pitching this season to the tune of a .312 ISO and a 1.099 OPS on the season. He’s also already swiped eight bases against righties. Roll him with confidence.
2B – Brandon Drury (ARI) – $3,700 vs. DET
Let’s keep the D-Backs stack moving here with young second baseman Brandon Drury. Like many of his teammates, Drury also clobbers right-handed pitching as seen in his .220 ISO and .890 OPS against same-handed pitching this season. Drury has all of the big bats in front of him tonight as he is expected to hit 6th, meaning lots of RBI opportunities on the way for a guy at a very reasonable price tonight.
3B – Jake Lamb (ARI) – $5,200 vs. DET
I actually expect Lamb to compete with Goldschmidt for highest scoring player on tonight’s slate. As mentioned Zimmermann gives up homers at a slightly higher clip to lefties and considering Lamb has a massive .333 ISO and 1.072 OPS against righties we have a very exploitable matchup tonight. He also leads all of baseball with 57 RBIs this season. He’s a no brainer for this Diamondbacks’ stack.
SS – Chris Owings (ARI) – $4,200 vs. DET
The last man in this stack will be shortstop Chris Owings who has been surprisingly effective with the bat this season. Owings enters play tonight sporting a .174 ISO and a .791 OPS against righties this season, but he has also stolen five bases on the season against righties. Hitting fifth right behind Goldschmidt and Lamb and in front of Drury is an excellent spot for Owings to do damage tonight, assuming the two guys in front of him don’t keep clearing the bases on him.
OF – Charlie Blackmon (COL) – $5,500 vs. PIT
Blackmon will of course be a high-owned player tonight, however we rarely are able to afford him so let’s grab him in an excellent matchup today. He will face Pirates’ righty Chad Kuhl who sports a terrible 5.40 FIP and a 1.78 HR/9 against left-handed hitters this season. Blackmon leads all of baseball with 90 hits this season and also sports a .301 ISO and a 1.046 against right-handed pitching. Roll Charlie with the utmost of confidence tonight.
OF – Carlos Gonzalez (COL) – $3,200 vs. PIT
Considering Kuhl’s putrid numbers to left-handed hitters Carlos Gonzalez oozes with value at his price tonight. CarGo hasn’t yet got it going completely at the plate this season, but in 2016 he hit righties to a .201 ISO and an .883 OPS. His low .242 BABIP against righties suggests positive regression for the veteran left-handed hitter and tonight is a perfect get-right matchup against Kuhl.
OF – Andrew Benintendi (BOS) – $4,800 vs. PHI
Completing this lineup tonight is rookie outfielder Andrew Benintendi who also completed last night’s game against Philly with a walk off base hit. He will take on Phillies’ righty Jeremy Hellickson who has a 6.23 FIP and a 1.67 HR/9 surrendered to left-handed hitters to go along with a 50% fly ball rate to lefties. Benintendi is 6 for 10 with a homer and double over his last ten at bats so roll him while he’s hot tonight.