It looks like I picked on Jordan Zimmermann for the worst possible game. Zimmermann threw his best game since April of 2016 in last night’s 2-1 loss to the Diamondbacks as he settled right in after giving up two runs in the first. Francisco Liriano had an excellent start and delivered the lineup plenty of value, but Mike Leake did not and hurt the lineup big time. Gary Sanchez went yard and Andrew Benintendi had a decent night, but it likely wasn’t enough to get you into the cash. It’s been a disappointing week but let’s turn things around on tonight’s seven-game slate!
P – Chris Sale (BOS) – $14,100 vs. PHI
I’ve written here before how much power the Phillies have against left-handed pitching, but Chris Sale is whole other animal. The Phillies are likely to stack as many righties as they can against the lanky southpaw, but that only increases his strikeout upside as he has posted a 12.72 K/9 figure against righties compared to a 10.45 figure to lefties. His 1.56 FIP to righties is also significantly lower than his 3.89 mark to lefties. Sale is quite likely the front runner for the Cy Young in the AL as of now so let’s roll with the top arm on the slate to keep racking up those punchouts.
P – Jordan Montgomery (NYY) – $8,600 vs. OAK
The Oakland A’s rank near the top of the league in strikeouts with 597, good for fifth most in the league so I am going to roll with rookie left-hander Jordan Montgomery. Montgomery carries very solid numbers into tonight’s contest as he sports a nice 8.67 K/9 on the season while his solid 3.55 ERA is supported by his solid 3.57 FIP. The A’s also rank 21st with a team .694 OPS against lefties and given the park shift Montgomery gets tonight I like this play very much as our second starter of the night.
C – Salvador Perez (KC) – $3,800 vs. LAA
The Royals will take on right-hander Ricky Nolasco who has been very exploitable to both sides of the plate this season, but he owns a massive 3.06 HR/9 and a 6.14 FIP to righties so let’s roll with Sal Perez at the catcher spot tonight. Despite being a right-handed hitter Perez hits right-handed pitching quite well as evidenced by his .252 ISO and .873 OPS against them this season. He’s already clobbered ten homers off of righties and considering Nolasco’s home run ways versus righties this is a great spot for Perez at a reasonable price.
1B – Matt Carpenter (STL) – $4,000 vs. MIL
Another pitcher that is worth targeting is Brewers’ right-hander Zach Davies. Davies has posted a 5.63 FIP and a 1.69 HR/9 to left-handed hitters this season so let’s roll with the left-handed-hitting, righty-mashing Matt Carpenter. Carpenter has hit righties to a .247 ISO and an .871 OPS on the season after posting a .262 ISO and a .920 OPS against righties in 2016. He is also expected to hit in the leadoff spot tonight which is an excellent boost to his already-excellent matchup.
2B – Wilmer Flores (NYM) – $2,900 vs. WAS
Here is a guy that oozes with value in his matchup tonight at a great price. Flores will take his cuts against Nationals’ lefty Gio Gonzalez this evening. That’s a good thing considering Flores hit lefties to a massive .370 ISO and a 1.073 OPS in 2016 and has followed that up with a .216 ISO and a .979 OPS this season. Gonzalez is easily worse against right-handed hitters like Flores as evidenced by his 4.92 FIP and 1.47 HR/9 to righties compared to a 2.48 FIP while he has not allowed a homer to a lefty this season. A very valuable matchup here with Flores is on tap.
3B – Jedd Gyorko (STL) – $3,500 vs. MIL
I mentioned that Davies is exploitable to left-handed hitters like Matt Carpenter, however he has not been anything special to righties this season as evidenced by his 4.37 FIP to them and an even worse 4.80 FIP to them on the road. This gets even better when we see that Jedd Gyorko is reverse-splits hitter and hits righties better than he does lefties. Gyorko has a .208 ISO and an .879 OPS against righties this season after hitting them to the tune of a .295 ISO and an .836 OPS in the 2016 season. He is a solid part of a Cardinals’ stack out of the cleanup spot tonight.
SS – Brandon Crawford (SF) – $3,500 vs. COL
The game between the Giants and Rockies is of course expected to be the highest scoring affair on the slate as it is being played in the hitting-friendly confines of Coors Field. With that in mind I wanted to get some exposure to this game and we have that here with Brandon Crawford. Crawford has not hit nearly as well this season as he did last year when he posted a .180 ISO and an .801 OPS against righties, but the silver lining lies in his low .269 BABIP and solid 35.5% hard hit rate against righties this season. Given the nice hard hit rate that BABIP is due to climb as he should be able to hit for some extra-base power this evening.
OF – Dexter Fowler (STL) – $3,800 vs. MIL
The Cardinals’ stack is complete here with Fowler who boasts some power/speed upside tonight in this matchup against Zach Davies. Fowler has a very impressive .240 ISO and .822 OPS against right-handed pitching this season and has also stole three bases off righties this season. Davies has a brutal 6.43 FIP to lefties on the road as I look for the switch-hitting Fowler to take advantage of that figure tonight.
OF – Brandon Moss (KC) – $2,800 vs. LAA
Here is another bat that we can extract some value from this evening against a below-average pitcher. Moss does sport a solid .195 ISO against righties this season, but he is also being dogged by a brutal .171 BABIP despite a solid hard hit rate of 32.5% against righties. With Nolasco giving up plenty of home runs this season it is certainly not out of the realm of possibility for Moss to connect for a long ball tonight, especially considering his massive .302 ISO against righties from last season.
OF – Juan Lagares (NYM) – $3,000 vs. WAS
Forming a nice mini-stack with Flores tonight will be outfielder Juan Lagares. Lagares is projected to hit in the leadoff spot tonight, one spot ahead of Flores. Lagares has a solid .819 OPS on the season against left-handed pitching to go along with a sold 33.3% hard hit rate against them. He was also successful in his lone stolen base attempt off a lefty so we do have a wee bit of stolen base upside with this play at a reasonable price tonight.