We have a jam-packed Tuesday night of MLB action ahead of us! One thing to note is the lack of pitching depth on this slate, and in turn we have a lot of pitchers who we can target with bats tonight. Let’s aim for a productive lineup to go along with some high-upside arms this evening.
P – Michael Pineda (NYY) – $10,600 vs. LAA
Safety is scarce on today’s slate and although I don’t think Pineda is fully safe, I also don’t think Chris Sale is either so let’s go with the lesser owned Pineda tonight. Although he was knocked around by the Angels in his last start, Pineda carries upside in the form of a strikeout clip around 24% to both sides of the plate to go along with a ground ball rate of around 52% to both sides of the plate. That ground ball figure is important at the hitting-friendly Yankee Stadium where Pineda has an excellent 2.63 FIP and a 28.8% strikeout clip this season.
P – Amir Garrett (CIN) – $5,400 vs. TB
While Garrett obviously carries plenty of risk with him into tonight’s contest I also believe the upside is there as well. Garett has a fantastic 31% strikeout rate and a 53.6% ground ball rate to lefties this season. This is important because Tampa’s two best hitters are left-handed in the form of Corey Dickerson and Logan Morrison. While his numbers aren’t as impressive against righties, it’s also important to note that Tampa Bay leads all of baseball with 239 strikeouts against left-handed pitching. Garett is strictly a GPP play in this spot tonight.
C – Robinson Chirinos (TEX) – $3,700 vs. TOR
Robinson Chirinos could very well deliver the most value in this lineup tonight. He will face Jays’ lefty Francisco Liriano tonight, a southpaw who has pitched to an ugly 9.38 FIP to righties on the road this season. Enter Chirinos who sports a team-leading .375 ISO and a 1.068 OPS against left-handed pitching this season after posting a massive .292 ISO against lefties in 2016.
1B – Matt Carpenter (STL) – $4,500 vs. PHI
There aren’t many full-time pitchers in the big leagues struggling as much as Jeremy Hellickson is right now. Hellickson will enter play tonight sporting a 6.13 FIP and a 6.99 xFIP to lefties on the season. Carpenter has a .264 ISO and a .928 ISO against right-handed pitching on the season. In 2016, he posted a .262 ISO and a .920 OPS against righties. Safe to say this is a matchup that Carpenter can thrive in tonight.
2B – Jonathan Schoop (BAL) – $3,900 vs. CLE
We have a unique double-reverse-splits situation on our hands here as Jonathan Schoop faces Indians’ right-hander Josh Tomlin. Tomlin’s FIP and xFIP are both slightly higher against righties this season after displaying some increased reverse splits in 2016. Enter Schoop who has hit righties to the tune of a .226 ISO and .864 OPS this season, both of which rank second among all Orioles this season. Capitalize on these splits tonight at a very reasonable price.
3B – Miguel Sano (MIN) – $4,200 vs. CWS
Sano has quickly developed into one of the league’s most feared right-handed hitters. That is certainly the case again tonight as he takes on White Sox lefty Derek Holland. Holland enters play tonight sporting a 5.97 FIP and a 2.04 HR/9 to right-handed hitters on the season. With Sano posting a .275 ISO and a 1.005 OPS against lefties this season to go along with an elite 48.5% hard hit rate, these are some splits we want to exploit tonight.
SS – Eduardo Escobar (MIN) – $4,300 vs. CWS
The same goes for Twins’ shortstop Eduardo Escobar tonight against Holland. Escobar has posted a .260 ISO and a 1.049 OPS against left-handed pitching to go along with a very nice 39% hard hit rate. He and Sano could hit side by side in the Twins’ lineup tonight so let’s roll with a very high-upside Twins mini-stack tonight.
OF – Eric Thames (MIL) – $4,700 vs. PIT
Although there are a lot of tasty matchups in this lineup, when we factor in ball park Thames could have the best matchup of all. Pirates’ righty Chad Kuhl has struggled immensely against left-handed hitters in his big league career as he sports a 5.20 FIP, 47% fly ball rate and a 36.4% hard hit rate allowed to them this season. Thames has mashed righties to the tune of a .342 ISO and a 1.036 OPS on the season and when we factor in the fact Miller Park is a huge home run-hitting venue for left-handed bats we have an excellent matchup on our hands.
OF – Dexter Fowler (STL) – $4,700 vs. PHI
Very similar reasoning here with Fowler as there was with Carpenter. Fowler has hit right-handed pitching to a .274 ISO and a .901 OPS this season, both of which rank second on the Cardinals behind Carpenter’s lofty figures. With Hellickson’s severe struggles to left-handed hitting this season this is a mini-stack you are going to want to roster tonight.
OF – Mark Trumbo (BAL) – $4,000 vs. CLE
Although Trumbo hasn’t matched last year’s lofty numbers against right-handed pitching, given Tomlin’s reverse splits, home run issues and the hitting-friendly venue of Camden Yards, Trumbo certainly carries home run upside into play tonight. He is just 2 for 8 against Tomlin in his career, but those two hits were a double and a home run. Trumbo has never been a high average guy but this is an example of his ability to get the most out of his hits.